DIA ETF Trade Setup
We are opening a July expiration month DIA Bull Put spread
DIA closed at $101.44 on Monday (19 days to July expiration)
DIA is priced BELOW its current 14-day EMA (see DIA chart down below)
DIA is basically EVEN with its 20-day Bollinger Band SMA (see DIA chart)
DIA is trading well BELOW its 50-day simple moving average (see DIA chart)
DIA is just BELOW its 200-day simple moving average (see DIA chart)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is neutral (See DIA chart)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is neutral (See DIA chart)

30 day Historical Volatility is 23.47%, Implied Volatility is 22.35%
Upper range standard deviation is .84162, the lower range is -.84162
Use the number of days to expiration, volatility number and the standard deviation to calculate the 80% statistical probability for the option price to close within our short strikes at expiration.

The Bull Put spread short strike price should be below defined support levels :
$97 calculated based on previous intraday lows and technical support levels
$97 equals the lower price level of our 80% statistical probability range
$98 is the lower Bollinger Band level – Lower solid purple line in the DIA chart below

We want the DIA put spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit AND we prefer that the short strikes fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in tables below comply with our trading rules for initiating the July expiration month Bull Put Spread (based on Monday's closing prices). The recommendation is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Premium Credit $.51
Total Option Premium Received $500 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $4,500
Margin Requirement $5,000
10 contracts traded (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

Exit Plan
We are putting a short leash on the put spread by tightening up the stop-loss point. Our June put spread expired worthless and on Wednesday the June quarterly put should expire worthless and we keep the entire premium collected. We already have a July call spread position and the July bull put play will provide a hedge. If prices pull back and the DIA put spread displays an unearned loss equal to the premium we received, then we will probably exit the position and call it even. We are showing decent profit, and with less than three weeks until July expiration it is not worth it to let our last July play hurt us.

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.