IWM ETF Trade Setup
We are opening an April expiration month IWM Bear Call Spread
IWM closed at $82.04 on Monday (19 days to April expiration)
IWM is priced ABOVE its current 14-day EMA (see IWM chart down below)
IWM is trading ABOVE its 20-day Bollinger Band SMA (see IWM chart down below)
IWM is priced ABOVE its 50-day simple moving average (see IWM chart)
IWM is well ABOVE its 200-day simple moving average (see IWM chart)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is neutral (See IWM chart)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is turning up bullish (See IWM chart)

30 day Historical Volatility is 20.76%, Implied Volatility is 22.29% - both numbers are closer to the bottom of their 52-week ranges which is considered a bullish sign
Upper range standard deviation is .84162, the lower range is -.84162
Use the number of days to expiration, volatility number and the standard deviation to calculate the 80% statistical probability for the option price to close within our short strikes at expiration.

We want the IWM Bear Call spread short strike to exceed defined resistance levels :
$84.00 calculated based on previous intraday highs and technical resistance levels
$84.00 equals the upper price level of our 80% statistical probability range
$83.00 is the upper level of the Bollinger Band – Upper solid purple line in the IWM chart below

We want the IWM call spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit on each leg AND we prefer that the short strikes fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in tables below comply with our trading rules for initiating the April expiration month option series IWM bear call spread (based on Monday's closing prices). The recommendation is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Premium Credit $.59
Total Option Premium Received $1,180 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $8,820
Margin Requirement $10,000
20 contracts traded on each leg (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

Exit Plan
As with initiating the trade, the decision process for exiting our call spread position will be simple:

Anytime the market maker is willing to accept a limit price of less than .11 on one of our short strikes, buy back all the short contracts and sell the long positions on the same spread. However, if it is a few days prior to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid.

If one of our short strikes is penetrated (closing price above our short call) AND the delta rises to .65 we will look to close out this spread (buy the short contracts, sell the long) and roll it out to another short strike price. Unless this is option expiration week, do not panic and rush to close the trade, many times the market will reverse itself and remove the sense of urgency. If one of our short strikes has been violated and there is no price reversal, we cut our losses and live to fight another day.

Final Comment
If prices gap up on Tuesday we can use the intraday resistance level to get a better credit on the call spread. But if prices pull back any time during the day we should have a chance to get the credit we want from the call spread.

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.