GLD ETF Trade Setup ---------------------------------------------------------
We are opening a June Quarterly end-of-month option expiration GLD bear call spread
GLD closed at $157.12 on Wednesday (16 days to the June end-of-month quarterly expiration)
GLD is priced ABOVE its current 14-day EMA (see GLD chart down below)
GLD is trading ABOVE its 20-day Bollinger Band SMA (see GLD chart)
GLD is priced at its 50-day SMA (see GLD chart)
GLD is BELOW its 200-day simple moving average (see GLD chart)
Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is neutral (See GLD chart)
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is bullish (See GLD chart)

30 day Historical Volatility is 18.57%, Implied Volatility is 21.34% - both volatility numbers are near the middle of their 52-week range which is considered neutral
Use the number of days to expiration, implied volatility number and 2 standard deviations to calculate the 80% statistical probability for the option price to close within our short strikes at expiration.

We want the GLD Bear Call spread short strike to exceed defined resistance levels :
$162.00 calculated based on previous intraday highs and technical resistance levels
$164.00 equals the upper price level of our 80% statistical probability range
$158.98 is the upper level of the Bollinger Band – Upper solid purple line in the GLD chart above

We want the GLD call spread to generate a minimum .50 net credit on each leg AND we prefer that the short strike fit our statistical probability profile (80% chance all the options will expire worthless and we get to keep most of the sold premium). The spread in tables below comply with our trading rules for initiating the June Quarterly end-of-month expiration GLD bear call spread (based on Wednesday's closing prices). The suggestion is to submit an order to purchase/sell the option strikes prices below. Please confirm the correct option symbols with your broker.

Premium Credit $.50
Total Option Premium Received $1,000 (Excludes commissions and fees)
Maximum Risk $7,820 (includes premium received for the June Quartely bull put spread)
Margin Requirement $10,000(this is same margin used for the bull put spread)
20 contracts traded on each leg (number of contracts can be increased or decreased based on risk tolerance and/or funds available to trade; this will impact Total Premium Received, Maximum Risk amount, and Margin Required)

Exit Plan
As with initiating the trade, the decision process for exiting our GLD call spread position will be simple:

Anytime the market maker is willing to accept a limit price of less than .11 on one of our short strikes, buy back all the short contracts and sell the long positions on the same spread. However, if it is a few days prior to the expiration date, we may be able to hold out for a .05 bid.

If one of our short strikes is penetrated (closing price above our short call ) AND the delta rises to .65 we will look to close out this spread (buy the short contracts, sell the long) and roll it out to another short strike price. Unless this is option expiration week, do not panic and rush to close the trade, many times the market will reverse itself and remove the sense of urgency. If one of our short strikes has been violated and there is no price reversal, we cut our losses and live to fight another day.

Final Comment
If prices gap down tomorrow the call spread may not be available as published and we will hold off on the trade until prices recover to the current level. Conversely if prices rise sharply then we will probably initiate the trade at higher strike prices with a similar risk profile as described above.

Happy Trading

Gregory Clay

Couch Potato Trader Disclaimer
All results reported in this section are hypothetical. While the numbers represented here may have been achieved or beaten by our readers, we make no representation that any individual investor achieved these exact results. The tracking for the plays listed in this section uses closing prices for the day the newsletter is published and it is not meant to imply that any reader actually received those prices (though many often do) or participated in these recommendations (even though many do). The portfolio represented here is hypothetical and for investment education purposes only. It is only an illustration of what type of gains a knowledgeable trader might receive utilizing these strategies. If you don't get close to these results, guess what. It isn't the fault of the strategies.