This week was a roller-coaster ride as the Greece debt default situation remains unresolved in advance of a referendum on Sunday.
We do not have any open positions on for the weekend; so can sit on the sidelines while the market digests whatever outcome the referendum may bring. To say it was a volatile week is putting it mildly; I will post a few charts below to give a visual of what the fear over Greece brought into the market.
Those of you who follow this newsletter will know that I do not get too deep into technical analysis on my charts; there are other editors within Option Investor who do a terrific job with their technical viewpoint on charts. I do, however, watch the Exponential Moving Average of the major indices, and have added the 20, 100, and 200-day EMA's to the charts below.
SPX 6 month chart
SPX closed flat yesterday at 2077, and posted the second weekly loss of -1.2%. The index is below the 20 and 100 day EMA, if the market continues to sell off the next support could be the 200 day EMA at 2050.
RUT 6 month chart
RUT was more bearish than SPX yesterday, closing down 8 points or -.65%. It did recover from Monday's selloff to close up slightly for the week at 1248. RUT is currently sitting on the 100 day EMA, and could fall to the 200 Day at 1215 unless it bounces here.
VIX 6 month chart
On Monday the VIX spiked to almost 20, the highest level since February, 2015. The volatility or "fear" index did settle to close Thursday at 16.79, but is still above all the EMA's as indicated on the chart.
It's really anyone's guess as to how the market will react to Sunday's referendum in Greece. I just read a report this morning that there have been private meetings this past week, and a bailout deal between Greece and their creditors is almost final. But that is just "news", so we enjoy the long weekend and go into next week with cash as our position as the drama continues to unfold.
I hope the time is drawing near when the market settles down to what I feel is "within reason" to enter one of the non-directional trades we have in the portfolio. The earliest entry for the next trade will be at the end of next week, the SPX weekly Iron Condor for the July 3 cycle. With any luck Greece and the EU ministers will have settled on the fate of the country, and investors can put the nightmare behind them.
Next week's economic news is summarized below:
10:00 am ISM Non Manufacturing Index
8:30 am International Trade
10:30 am EIA Petroleum Status Report
2:00 pm FOMC Minutes
2:00 pm Fed John Williams Speaks
8:30 am Jobless Claims
10:00 am Fed Lael Brainard Speaks
12:30 pm Fed Esther George Speaks
11:30 am Fed Eric Rosengren Speaks
12:00 pm Fed Chair Janet Yellen Speaks
Trade updates will be posted as appropriate.
As always, stay keen on your risk management and trade carefully,