The recovery continues; the wild ride for January resulted in the choppiest start to the year since 2008.
The broad market ended sharply higher Friday posting the second weekly gain for 2016. However, there is still a lot of digging out to do, January was the worst start to the year since 2008.
The benchmark index SPX closed up 46.88 points or 2.5%, at 1940.24.
We only have one position on this weekend, the SPX weekly Iron Condor for the February 1 cycle. Trade details are below:
- SOLD SPX February 1 1970 Call, 2.25 Credit.
- BOUGHT SPX February 1 1980 Call, 1.35 Debit.
- SOLD SPX February 1 1820 Put, 2.05 Credit.
- BOUGHT SPX February 1 1810 Put, 1.55 Debit.
Order was filled as an "Iron Condor" for $1.40 net credit (all four legs).
Margin/Risk is calculated by the width of the wings ($1,000), less credit received.
Margin/Risk for this week's trade: $860.
Target Gain: 7% of margin/risk or $60.
Max loss: 10% of margin/risk or $86.
Below is the risk graph of this week's position as shown on my broker's platform:
SPX February 1 Weekly Iron Condor:
Below is the SPX 6 month chart showing the short strikes:
SPX 6 month chart
Typical of the market these days, as soon as we entered this position the bulls came out in full force, putting this position under water at the end of the day. Unless there is a pullback Monday, the position will likely hit the stop loss and be closed. Hopefully anyone trading this week's position with live capital heeded my caution to do so in a much smaller size than normal. With any cooperation from Mr. Market, Monday will present a pullback. One would "think" after a move of 46+ points, there would be pullback, even a slight one, but we will see what Monday brings and manage the position according to the plan.
Next week's economic news is summarized below:
8:30 am Personal Income & Outlays
9:45 am PMI Manufacturing Index
10:00 am ISM Manufacturing Index
10:00 am Construction Spending
8:15 am ADP Employment Report
10:00 am ISM Non Manufacturing Index
10:30 am EIA Petroleum Status Report
8:30 am Jobless Claims
8:30 am Productivity & Costs
10:00 am Factory Orders
8:30 am Monthly Employment Situation Report
8:30 am International Trade
Updates will be posted as appropriate.
As always, stay keen on your risk management and trade carefully,