New Watch List Entries


PNRA - Panera Bread Co.

Active Watch List Candidates

BUCY - Bucyrus Intl.

BVN - Compania de Minas Buenaventura

CHRW - CH Robinson Worldwide

V - Visa Inc.

VMED - Virgin Media

Dropped Watch List Entries

SBUX graduated to the play list. TASR was promoted. WLT was removed.

New Watch List Candidates:

NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 10.12 change: +0.32

I know that 2008 and 2010 have been pretty rough years for NVDA for a plethora of reasons but I'm starting to think all the bad news has been priced into this stock after a 50% haircut from its April highs. The stock is acting like it has found a potential bottom. Now I realize that people are turning more and more bearish on chip stocks but NVDA has been trading out of sync with the semi sector for months.

This could be a tempting bullish play. Just keep your positions very small to limit our risk. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $10.55. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $9.35. Our first target is $12.50. Our second, longer-term target is $14.00.

Company Info:
NVIDIA awakened the world to the power of computer graphics when it invented the graphics processing unit (GPU) in 1999. Since then, it has consistently set new standards in visual computing with breathtaking, interactive graphics available on devices ranging from portable media players to notebooks to workstations. NVIDIA's expertise in programmable GPUs has led to breakthroughs in parallel processing which make supercomputing inexpensive and widely accessible. Fortune magazine has ranked NVIDIA #1 in innovation in the semiconductor industry for two years in a row. (source: company press release or website)

Breakout trigger: $10.55

BUY the 2011 Jan $10.00 calls (NVDA1122A10)

- or -

BUY the 2012 Jan $12.50 calls (NVDA1221A12.5)

Chart of NVDA:

Panera Bread - PNRA - close: 79.81 change: +0.66

Shares of PNRA have been holding up pretty well. The stock has been consolidating sideways in the $73-80 zone for the last couple of months. This consolidation narrowed in the last week or so and now PNRA is poised to breakout over resistance near $80.00. The high on Aug. 18th was $80.56. I am suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $80.75. If triggered our target is $88.00. There is some resistance at the June high around $85.00 so don't be surprised if PNRA pulls back at the first test. More conservative traders could take some profits at $85.00. I don't see this as a real long-term trade so I'm only suggesting the 2011 January calls. More aggressive traders could use the November calls. If triggered at $80.75 we'll use a stop loss at $77.40.

Company Info:
Panera Bread Company owns and franchises 1,399 bakery-cafes as of June 29, 2010 under the Panera Bread®, Saint Louis Bread Co.®, and Paradise Bakery & Café® names. With our identity rooted in handcrafted, fresh-baked, artisan bread, we are committed to providing great tasting, quality food that people can trust. Nearly all of our bakery-cafes have a menu highlighted by antibiotic free chicken, whole grain bread, select organic and all-natural ingredients, with zero grams of artificial trans fat per serving, which provide flavorful, wholesome offerings. Our menu includes a wide variety of year-round favorites, complemented by new items introduced seasonally with the goal of creating new standards in everyday food choices. In neighborhoods across this country and in Ontario, Canada, our customers enjoy our warm and welcoming environment featuring comfortable gathering areas, relaxing decor, and free internet access. (source: company press release or website)

Breakout trigger: $80.75

BUY the 2011 January $85 calls (PNRA1122A85)

Chart of PNRA:

Active Watch List Candidates:

Bucyrus Intl. - BUCY - close: 57.12 change: +3.02

Shares of BUCY produced a very convincing bullish double bottom this past week. It just so happens the stock is bouncing from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of its July-August rally. I'm am certainly tempted to buy calls on the stock right here. However, there is still resistance in the $58-60 zone. We will keep our entry point to buy calls on the dip at $51.50 with a stop loss at $47.00. We will also add a trigger to buy calls at $61.00 just in case BUCY rallies from here. If triggered at $61.00 we'll use a stop at $52.99. FYI: I prefer the 2012 call LEAPS but the 2011s should work.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $51.50 or buy calls at $61.00

BUY the 2011 Jan $60 calls (BUCY1122A60)

- or -

BUY the 2012 Jan $70 calls (BUCY1221A70)

Chart of BUCY:

Compania de Minas Buenaventura - BVN - close: 40.47 change: +0.82

Uh-oh! It looks like BVN is going to run away from us. Shares are breaking out from a big bull-flag shaped pattern. We don't want to chase it right here after a four-day surge higher. Instead we will adjust our trigger to buy calls from $34.00 up to $38.50. We'll move the stop loss to $34.75. There is still resistance near $42.50 but long-term BVN looks poised to breakout. Our target is $47.50 but we might adjust it higher.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $38.50

BUY the 2011 March $40 calls (BVN1119C40) *adjusted*

Chart of BVN:

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc. - CHRW - close: 65.92 change: +1.01

CHRW is still consolidating sideways in a neutral, pennant shaped formation. Aggressive traders may want to consider bullish positions on a close over $68.00. Personally, I'd rather wait for a pull back toward support near $62.00. I am suggesting we buy call LEAPS if CHRW dips to $62.00. More conservative traders may want to hold off and wait for a dip closer to $60.00. If triggered we will use a stop loss at $57.75. Our first long-term target is $67.50. Our second, long-term target is $72.50.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $62.00

NOTE: I prefer the 2012 calls!

BUY the 2011 January $65.00 calls (CHRW1122A65)

- or -

BUY the 2012 January $70.00 calls (CHRW1221A70)

Chart of CHRW:

TASER Intl. - TASR - close: 3.72 change: +0.14

I am promoting TASR to an active play. Check the details in tonight's new play section.

Visa Inc. - V - close: $71.11 change: +1.20

Visa almost hit our trigger on Tuesday when shares spiked down to $69.00 but traders bought the dip. The stock is stuck in a $70-72 zone right now. The overall trend remains bearish. Nimble traders could try and open bearish positions on a failed rally near $74.00. I'm suggesting most of us just wait for the breakdown and keep our trigger at $67.75. If triggered our immediate target is $60.25. Once triggered I don't expect this trade to last more than a few weeks. We'll use a stop loss at $70.55.

- This is a PUT play -

Break down trigger: $67.75

BUY the 2011 Jan $60 puts (V1122M60)

Chart of V:

Virgin Media - VMED - close: 20.23 change: +0.64

Hmmm... the action this past week, with the bullish double bottom near $19.40, almost looks like a new entry point to buy calls. However, since I'm still wary of the market and expect this oversold bounce in stocks to fail in a few days I'm going to stick tot he original plan. Wait for a correction closer to $18.00. If triggered we'll start the play with a stop loss at $16.40. Our first target is $22.00. Our second, longer-term target is $24.75. I prefer the 2012 LEAPS over the 2011s. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is forecasting a long-term target of $36.

Buy-the-Dip trigger: $18.00

BUY the 2011 Jan $20.00 call (VMED1122A20)

- or

BUY the 2012 Jan $20.00 call (VMED1221A20)

Chart of VMED:

Walter Energy - WLT - close: 70.54 change: +2.86

I am removing WLT from the watch list. Shares have failed twice now at resistance near $80.00 and the breakdown this past week sundered the pattern of higher lows. I would keep WLT on your watch list for a bounce from the July lows or a close over $80.00.