NEW BEARISH Plays
Aegerion Pharma. - AEGR - close: 30.35 change: -1.45
Stop Loss: 32.55
Target(s): to be determined
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Entry on May -- at $--.--
Listed on May 20, 2014
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
New Positions: Yes, see below
Why We Like It:
AEGR is in the healthcare sector. The company is a biotech firm that develops treatments for rare diseases.
This stock delivered a tremendous rally from October 2012 to October 2013. That's when shares revered at the $100 level and it's been down hill ever since. Exacerbating AEGR's decline has been the company's earnings warning. They lowered guidance back in January and they lowered guidance again when they reported earnings on May 7th.
The stock gapped down sharply following the May 7th report and there has been no oversold bounce. Wall Street was expecting revenues of $33.6 million for the quarter. The company only reported $27 million.
AEGR seems to be facing challenges with its only marketed product, Juxtapid. This is an oral treatment for homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia. This is a genetic disorder characterized by extremely high levels of cholesterol, especially the LDL (bad) cholesterol.
Most of the company's sales are in the U.S. Last quarter a large chunk of its sales in Brazil evaporated with a -70% decline due to an investigation into anticorruption laws in Brazil.
There are concerns that AEGR may have to lower the price for its Juxtapid treatments, which currently cost in the $250,000-$300,000 a year range. There are competing treatments for a lot less money. There is also a worry that there may be fewer customers than previously believed. There were some claims that Juxtapid might have the potential to treat 3,000 patients in the U.S. Yet homozygous familial hypercholesterolemia only affects one in a million people. That means there are closer to 300 potential patients in the U.S.
The company is also facing an investigation from the U.S. Department of Justice for comments made by AEGR's CEO when he appeared on CNBC's Fast Money program last year.
The company seems to be facing a lot of negatives and is clearly in a bear market with lower as the path of least resistance. Currently shares of AEGR are testing round-number support at $30.00. We want to wait for a breakdown below $30.00 and launch bearish positions at $29.50. If triggered we will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $32.55.
Traders should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Not only can AEGR see big intraday swings but there is a risk of a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 30% of the small 28.39 million share float. So far the shorts have been right.
We're not setting an exit target tonight but the $20.00 level looks like it could be significant support.
Trigger @ $29.50
Suggested Position: short AEGR stock @ (trigger)
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the Sep $30 PUT (AEGR140920P30) current ask $4.50