NEW BEARISH Plays
SodaStream Intl. Ltd. - SODA - close: 27.57 change: -1.33
Stop Loss: 30.15
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on October -- at $---.--
Listed on October 06, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 897 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below
Why We Like It:
SODA is in the consumer goods sector. The company makes in-home beverage machines and the consumable flavor packets and carbonation systems that allow consumers to make their own drinks. The stock IPO'd back in November 2010. They came to market with 5.4 million shares at $20.00 each. SODA's first trade was $24.75 on November 3, 2010. Several months later SODA was testing the $80.00 level.
It's been a rocky road for SODA but today the stock is down -41.7% in 2014 and down -64.4% from its 2013 highs near $76.
Why is SODA in decline? The company is facing growing competition.
For a long time SODA was a rumored takeover target. Wall Street speculated that companies like Coca-Cola (KO) or PepsiCo (PEP) or Dr. Pepper Snapple Group (DPS) might buy SODA. There was even a rumor that Starbucks (SBUX) might have been interested. None of these rumors panned out.
Now SODA is facing competition from KO who has teamed up with Keurig Green Mountain (GMCR) to make their own in-home soda machine. PEP has teamed up with Bevyz, a European company, who has their own machine, and the two will soon rollout packets with PepsiCo flavors.
The market is worried that against these heavyweights SODA will lose market share. It seems that sales are already disappointing Wall Street. Shares of SODA collapsed in January this year on a big earnings miss. Their most recent earnings report was July 30th and while SODA beat the EPS estimates, management lowed their 2014 guidance.
The path of least resistance is down. We are suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $27.35 but I am cautioning investors to consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. There is a still a risk that SODA will be bought. Almost a month ago there was a story overseas that SODA was in talks with a British hedge fund to buy the company near $40 a share. Most recently there have been stories that foreign beer makers like SABMiller and Diageo might be interested in buying the company.
If SODA gets cheap enough someone might try and buy it. Yet that doesn't mean SODA won't sink toward $20.00 a share first. Part of the risk is the rumor mill. If there are any convincing rumors of an impending deal we could see SODA spike higher. The most recent data listed short interest at 31.7% of the small 20.8 million share float. That increases our risk. You may want to buy a put option to limit your risk to the price of the option.
Trigger @ $27.35 *small positions, higher-risk trade*
- Suggested Positions -
Short SODA stock @ (trigger)
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the NOV $27.50 PUT (SODA141122P27.5) current ask $2.35
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike