NEW BULLISH Plays
INSYS Therapeutics - INSY - close: 43.13 change: +1.82
Stop Loss: 39.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on December -- at $---.--
Listed on December 17, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 479 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below
Why We Like It:
INSY is in the healthcare sector. They are part of the biotech industry.
The company website describes Insys Therapeutics as "a specialty pharmaceutical company that develops and commercializes innovative drugs and novel drug delivery systems of therapeutic molecules that improve the quality of life of patients. Using our proprietary sublingual spray technology and our capability to develop pharmaceutical cannabinoids, Insys addresses the clinical shortcomings of existing commercial products. Insys currently markets two products, Subsys, which is sublingual Fentanyl spray for breakthrough cancer pain, and a generic version of Dronabinol (THC) capsules. Our lead product candidate is Dronabinol Oral Solution, a proprietary orally administered liquid formulation of dronabinol. Insys is also developing a pipeline of sublingual sprays, as well as pharmaceutical cannabidiol."
Biotech stocks can be tough to trade. Normally they are volatile with lots of headline risk. The right headline about a successful test or clinical trial or FDA approval can send shares soaring. The wrong headline could see a biotech stock crash or even gap down several points. Due to the nature of biotech work and how many companies get paid with milestone payments as they develop treatments their earnings are very lumpy.
INSY has managed to consistently beat Wall Street's bottom line estimates this year. The last four quarters in a row they have beaten the EPS estimates and three out of the four quarters they have beaten the revenue estimate as well. Their most recent quarterly results came out on November 11th.
INSY delivered a profit of $0.63 a share versus estimates of only $0.35. Revenues soared +99.7% to $58.3 million, above estimates. Since their report the stock has garnered some bullish analyst comments and multiple firms have price targets in the $51-57 zone.
INSY management is very optimistic and expects to complete four Phase III clinical trials in 2015. If successful it will significantly broaden their product line.
It is important to note that not all the news is good for INSY. A few weeks ago the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) ran a story about some shady marketing practices for INSY's Subsys painkiller. This is an under-the-tongue spray version of the painkiller fentanyl. Subsys has a very high risk of dependency and is currently only approved for cancer patients. Yet strangely enough only 1% of prescriptions were written by oncologists. Several doctors with the biggest number of Subsys prescriptions have also been under review or disciplined. The WSJ noted that the Office of the Inspector General of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services and the U.S. Attorneys in the Central District of California and Massachusetts are all looking into the matter. This is significant because Subsys accounts for the vast majority of INSY's revenues. Thus far the stock does not seem to be worried about this story.
Shares have been building on the bullish trend of higher lows. The stock looks poised to breakout past resistance in the $43-44 area. The point & figure chart is already bullish and forecasting at $68 target.
If INSY can breakout it could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 65% of the very small 10.34 million share float.
Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $43.60. More conservative traders may want to wait for a breakout past the recent high at $44.00 instead.
I do consider this a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. Use small positions to limit your risk.
Trigger @ $43.60 *small positions*
- Suggested Positions -
Buy INSY stock @ (trigger)
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the FEB $45 CALL (INSY150220C45) current ask $4.00
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike