Additional Trading Ideas:
In addition to tonight's new candidate(s), consider these stocks as possible trading ideas and watch list candidates. Some of these may need to see a break past key support or resistance:
DVN, TXN, EMR, GRMN, PKG, DCI, TKR, DB, XOP, BRS, TRIP, MYL, SNI, SNDK
NEW BEARISH Plays
Sohu.com Inc. - SOHU - close: 41.55 change: -0.99
Stop Loss: 45.30
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on September -- at $---.--
Listed on September 23, 2015
Time Frame: Exit prior to earnings in early November
Average Daily Volume = 607 thousand
New Positions: Yes, see below
China's economy is slowing down. Earlier today the country said their manufacturing growth fell to six-year lows. This slowdown is being felt throughout the economy, including the technology space and Internet companies.
SOHU is considered part of the technology sector. I'd consider them a Chinese Internet stock. According to the company,
"Sohu.com Inc. is China's premier online brand and indispensable to the daily life of millions of Chinese, providing a network of web properties and community based/web 2.0 products which offer the vast Sohu user community a broad array of choices regarding information, entertainment and communication. Sohu has built one of the most comprehensive matrices of Chinese language web properties and proprietary search engines, consisting of the mass portal and leading online media destination www.sohu.com; interactive search engine www.sogou.com; developer and operator of online games www.changyou.com/en/ and leading online video website tv.sohu.com .
Sohu corporate services consist of online brand advertising on its matrix of websites as well as bid listing and home page on its in-house developed search directory and engine. Sohu also provides multiple news and information service on mobile platforms, including Sohu News App and mobile news portal WAP.Sohu.com. Sohu's online game subsidiary, Changyou.com (CYOU) has a diverse portfolio of popular online games , such as Tian Long Ba Bu, one of the most popular massively multi-player online ('MMO') games in China, as well as a number of mobile games. Changyou also owns and operates the 17173.com Website, a leading game information portal in China. Sohu.com, established by Dr. Charles Zhang, one of China's internet pioneers, is in its nineteenth year of operation."
Looking at SOHU's recent earnings reports the company has been beating estimates on the bottom line but business is slowing down. SOHU has guided lower three of the last four quarterly reports. Their most recent earnings report was July 27th when SOHU announced their Q2 results.
Wall Street expected a loss of ($0.81) per share on revenues of $479.5 million. SOHU delivered a loss of just ($0.37) while revenues grew +23% to $493.6 million. Unfortunately management lowered their guidance again. SOHU expects Q3 revenues to come in the $470-500 million range. That's below analysts' estimates of $530 million. SOHU is also forecasting Q3 earnings in the minus $0.55 to minus $0.80 per share versus Wall Street's estimate for minus $0.39. This is SOHU's lowest revenue growth in the last three years.
Technically the stock is in a bear market with a -40% drop from its June highs (SOHU is down -21% year to date). The stock has been trading with a bearish trend of lower highs. Now SOHU is poised to breakdown under significant support in the $42 area. A drop below $41.00 would generate a new triple-bottom breakdown sell signal on its Point & Figure chart. Tonight I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $41.35. If shares break down the next support level could be the $35 region.
FYI: Investors should be aware that SOHU has been rumored to be an acquisition target or a target to be taken private. That's our biggest risk. The cheaper this stock gets the more attractive it might become as a target. However, this is just speculation and it may never happen.
Trigger @ $41.35
- Suggested Positions -
Short SOHU stock @ $41.35
- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -
Buy the DEC $35 PUT (SOHU151218P35) current ask $1.70
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.
Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike