Editor's Note

The 2017 holiday shopping season was very strong for several retailers. The sector is rebounding on high expectations ahead of earnings.

Despite the Russell rally today, I am having a very tough time finding long positions. I spent several hours today trying to find long play without any success. All the charts are either crap or they look like this and I am not going to recommend these stock rockets.




NEW BULLISH Plays

No New Bullish Plays


NEW BEARISH Plays

OHI - Omega Healthcare Investors - Company Profile

Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. is a real estate investment firm. The firm invests in the real estate markets of United States. It invests in healthcare facilities, primarily in long-term healthcare facilities in order to create its portfolio. Omega is a real estate investment trust investing in and providing financing to the long-term care industry. As of September 30, 2017, Omega has a portfolio of investments that includes approximately 1,000 properties located in 42 states and the United Kingdom and operated by 77 different operators. Omega Healthcare Investors, Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Maryland, United States. Company description from Omega.

When Omega reported Q3 earnings, they also reported that two of their 77 operators (lessees) had fallen behind on their rents. The company had to record a charge of $194.7 million in non-cash impairment charges. The problem is that companies that far behind in their rent are not likely to suddenly catch up and send in a check for the past due. It typically suggests a longer term problem that could be terminal for those companies.

Funds from operations (FFO) were 79 cents and -4.8% below the year ago quarter. The company did raise their dividend to 65 cents for the 21st consecutive quarter. However, with massive delinquencies, that dividend could be in trouble. Shares plunged on the news and actually spiked the yield to 9.1% but you never want to be invested in a rising yield stock because the stock itself is declining. Investors appear to be heading elsewhere rather than risk a loss of capital.

Expected earnings Feb 7th.

Shares closed at a five year low on Thursday. If a stock cannot rally in this market, it is definitely sick.

I am going to recommend this as an option only position. Because this is a bull market we could see a sudden rebound in OHI as a "value" play because of its decline.

Buy March $26 put, currently 95 cents, initial stop loss $27.65.



Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps more than $1.00 at the market open.