Option Investor

Daily Newsletter, Wednesday, 9/3/2014

Table of Contents

  1. Market Wrap
  2. New Plays
  3. In Play Updates and Reviews

Market Wrap

More Volume, Less Filling

by Keene Little

Click here to email Keene Little
Some more volume has returned to the market but it hasn't helped the bulls much. In fact the increased volume has seen more churning in prices and is either accumulation or distribution by the big funds. It's likely distribution.

Wednesday's Market Stats

Today's trading volume was a little less than yesterday's but both days at least had stronger volume than last week. But the stronger volume is not coming from the buyers since the indexes have more or less traded flat. This is an indication that we're getting churning and if we were near the lows of a big move I'd suggest it was accumulation of stocks by the big funds from retail traders popping their cookies and handing off their stock to the Big Boyz. But since we're at the highs of a longer-term move I'm guessing the funds are now distributing the stock to eager retail traders who want to get long now (retail trader bullish sentiment is back to historical highs, which is not a good sign for the market).

The DOW was the only major index to close in the green today but only by 10 points. We could see some minor relative strength in the DOW in the days to come if stock is in fact being distributed. Most mutual funds have to remain invested and therefore they'll "park" their money in the safety of big stocks which are more liquid and easier to get out of if panic selling hits. Tech stocks and small caps were the relative losers today, which again points to an effort to reduce risk in the higher-beta names. The utility sector was also relatively strong today, which is another defensive sector (stocks pay dividends instead of being a growth stock).

So far the market has been a little weaker than I expected to see (usually the first two trading days of a new month see inflows of retirement money) but with minor new highs, even if not holding, continue to support my expectations from last week for at least minor new highs to complete the rally, as in put in THE high. It might be worth reviewing last Wednesday's market wrap to see why I'm feeling very confident about a final high this week. We have 5th waves at multiple degrees of the pattern along with the normally high bullish sentiment found at market highs.

Between Mr. Gann and Mr. Fibonacci I've been thinking there's a good chance we'll see SPX make a high somewhere between 2007 and 2015. You might remember last week's discussion about the Gann Square of Nine chart which pointed out the importance of 1998 and 2007, each being on a vector 180 degrees from previous important highs and lows. The vector that 2007 is on passes through the 2009 low near 667. Today's high was 2009 but it closed near 2000. It's been holding 2000 on a closing basis for the past 5 out of 6 trading days but it hasn't been able to much better than that.

SPX 2015 comes from a Fib (127% extension of the previous decline, in this case the July-August decline) as well as a 5th wave projection in the rally from August 7th. The 2015 target needs a rally on Thursday since any further drop could indicate trouble for bulls. We've been in a strong turn window, between mid-week last week and tomorrow, so it's an interesting time to see if we do in fact get a major high this week.

Adding to the possible fireworks tomorrow are a couple of economic reports. The ADP report will be out in the morning but more importantly, from Europe we'll find out how much "whatever it takes" means to Mario Draghi. He has jawboned the market long enough and it's time to either SOGOP ("poop" or get off the pot). The market expects him to announce some type of quantitative easing program to help prevent Europe from sinking lower into another recession (if not a depression since the deflation monster is again rearing its head). The market is also expecting a rate cut, not that that will be helpful. Once in the mud, going lower doesn't really help.

Interesting times indeed. I'll do a little Art Cashin here for you -- on this day in 1720 the South Sea company's stock started its crash from about 810 (it had been slowly declining since it peaked near 950 at the beginning of July) to 180 on the London stock exchange before rolling into October, signifying the collapse of the first stock market bubble. There were virtually no bounces in that nearly 80% decline. Also on this day, 85 years ago, was the DOW's high on September 3, 1929. Hmmm...

One could reasonably argue we are once again in bubble territory in the stock market, especially when comparing the meteoric climb in the indexes in the past 5 years vs. the lack of economic improvement. One of the ways to make that comparison is to look at SPX vs. the commodity index, as shown on the weekly chart below.

SPX vs. Bloomberg Commodity index (DJUBS), Weekly chart

Speaking of commodities, one thing in Art Cashin's report for today was a discussion about why September has often been such a bad month for the stock market. Some of it had to do with food manufacturers buying bulk commodities, such as wheat, in late summer (when crops are harvested) and the spending by these manufacturers was a draw on the big banks, who then had to sell holdings to provide the cash (credit was not nearly has prevalent back then). This caused a swoon in the stock market and even though this cause doesn't really exist today, the pattern seems to have held. Now we wait to see if this September will be another swoon for the stock market. At the moment it appears to be setting up that way

At the end of April I had reviewed the DJUBS chart to point out a strong correlation of Fib price levels near 138.20, including the 50% retracement of the September 2012 - August 2013 decline. The 50% retracement has been a repeating pattern since the April 2011 high that retraced a little more than 50% of the 2008-2009 decline. At the end of April most had turned bullish the commodities and I, as my usual contrarian self, said to get ready for the start of another leg down in its continuing bear market.

Since its April high the commodity index has had an impulsive decline and today it tested its August 20th low, at 124.80, retracing in two days the 8-day bounce in the last half of August. The next likely test will be of the November 2013 and January 2014 lows, near 122. The disconnect between the stock and commodity indexes continues the widening gap in the chart above. This will soon end and the correction (with a stock market decline) could be a nasty one for all those who have again turned bullish the stock market.

In the meantime the stock market has pressed higher and bullish sentiment quickly moved back to a bullish extreme following the August 7th lows in the stock market. This week's AAII survey shows bullish sentiment jumped another +3.6% to 56.1% and last week's climb above 50% was the first time since last December and only the 4th time above 50% since February 2011. In last Wednesday's market wrap I discussed this sentiment picture and how common it is to see in final 5th waves of a rally. We've got an EW count and sentiment lining up very nicely for a top to the rally, which should be dangerously close for all those bulls jumping in with both feet here.

The bearish sentiment, at 13.3%, is the lowest reading since February 1987. The boat is starting to get tippy here with too many bulls on one side and not enough bears to counter-balance it on the other.

When too many bulls rush over to one side of the boat

One of the things that makes the stock market more vulnerable to a downside disconnect this time is the plethora of ETFs. These have never really been tested in a major bear market since most have increased in size only in the past 5 years. Many existed in 2008 but today their aggregate size is about 4 times what they were in 2008. If investors ever reach a point of exiting their ETF positions en masse we could see a liquidity lock-up event. Instead of selling individual shares investors can sell thousands of shares by simply executing one trade. ETF managers would then be forced to sell the ETF's holdings and get it done that day, which in turn could create a panic selloff.

In August we saw a very steep decline in the high-yield bond market, which was outsized as compared to the selloff in the stock market. It may be offering us a preview of what's to come in the stock market. When the high-yield ETF managers were forced to sell large volumes of their bonds and they quickly learned that even the larger bond market was not as liquid as they thought. Some of the ETFs, especially techs and small caps, could find liquidity vanish with no buyers on the other side of the trade. This is what causes the flash crashes as the computers go hunting far below for any buyers. Again, these ETFs with their huge holdings now have not been battle tested and many are starting to worry that it could exacerbate any selloff. Food for thought and just another reason why I suggest bullish complacency here is very dangerous.

Starting tonight's chart review with the 50,000' view of SPX, the monthly chart below shows the price pattern since the blast-off days back in 1994. Following the new high is 2007, with bearish divergence against its 2000 high, it broke the uptrend line from 1990 through the 2002 low. Since the 2009 low SPX has made it all the way back up to the broken uptrend line and now we've got the mother of all back-tests in progress with more bearish divergence. If this results in a kiss goodbye it's going to be the mother of all corrections that follows. It looks a wee bit risky to be long here.

S&P 500, SPX, Monthly chart

The weekly chart below zooms in on just the part of the rally from June 2012. A trend line along the highs from April 2010 - May 2011 has been resistance since almost being tested in December 2013 and price has been pounding on the line since August 25th, currently near 2006. It's interesting that the line will be near 2007 on Thursday, an important turn date, and at the important Gann Sof9 level. Could be all just coincidence. At any rate, as mentioned last week, we've got a clean 5-wave move up from February which completes the 5th wave of the rally from October 2011. The over-the-top bullish sentiment fits well for a final 5th wave and I'm on high alert for an end to the rally that will be followed by at least a very larger downward correction of the rally from October 2011. More bearishly, we'll be at the start of the next cyclical bear market within the larger secular bear. Both should end sometime in 2016, maybe 2017.

S&P 500, SPX, Weekly chart

The 3rd through 5th waves in the rally from February are shown more closely on the daily chart below. You can see how it's been banging on that trend line along the highs from 2010-2011. The bulls see this as bullish consolidation while bears see it as topping action. Whenever I see price chopping marginally higher I think ending pattern rather than bullish consolidation. But I do see the potential for a head-fake break above the trend line to tag the 2015 projection and then create a bull trap with an immediate reversal. It would turn more bullish above 2015, with upside targets then at 2030 and 2050.

S&P 500, SPX, Daily chart

Key Levels for SPX:
- bullish above 2007
- bearish below 1967

What's not clear at the moment is what the price pattern since the August 26th high (last Tuesday) means. I see the potential for a sharp drop to about 1985 to complete a bullish consolidation pattern so I'd be cautious about an immediate drop from here -- without a clear ending pattern to the upside it's a bit risky to jump in short on a decline from here. There are plenty of reasons to suspect we'll start a stronger decline but I just don't have the price pattern to support an aggressive approach on the short side (not yet). Short term I'm watching a possible parallel up-channel off Tuesday's low to see if the final 5th wave finishes inside this channel.

S&P 500, SPX, 60-min chart

Keeping the bigger picture in mind for the DOW, it has the same wave count as SPX -- a 5-wave move up from October 2011, with the 5th wave being the leg up from February. The 5th wave of wave-5 is the leg up from August 7th and can be considered complete at any time. Today the DOW tested its July high at 17151.56 and August 26th high at 17153.80 with a high of 17151.89. It gave back 73 points from this morning's high by the close. A trend line along the highs from December 2013 is currently near 17300 so from a trendline perspective that's upside potential for now

Dow Industrials, INDU, Weekly chart

Key (Daily) Levels for DOW:
- bullish above 17,150
- bearish below 16,985

Getting in much closer to the above chart, the 60-min chart focuses on just the small rally from the August 7th low (the 5th of the 5th wave on the above chart). If the pullback/consolidation into Tuesday's low was the completion of a 4th wave correction then we've got a little rally ahead of us. Today's pullback was to the uptrend line from August 7th through Tuesday's low. If that holds as support and the 5th wave of the rally from August 7th achieves equality with the 1st wave we get an upside projection at 17303, which aligns nicely with the trend line along the highs from December-July that I mentioned above being near 17300. The projection shown on the chart below shows the completion of the rally on Friday. This would also make a very interesting reversal setup. But a drop below 17K would have me alert to the possibility that rally already completed.

Dow Industrials, INDU, 60-min chart

NDX has been battling two trend lines for more than two weeks now, since August 19th when it first reached its broken uptrend line from June 2013 - February 2014, currently near 4085. The other trend line is a longer-term one and is along the highs from April 2010 - April 2012, also near 4085. Yesterday it gapped above both of these trend lines and closed above (with a small hammer doji). Today it gapped up, hit a high at 4104 but then closed down near 4071 and below the two previous day's lows. That created an outside down day (bearish engulfing candlestick) following what could have been an exhaustion gap (suck in a few more eager-beaver bears, spit out a few more shorts) followed by a bull trap. A down day on Thursday could spell a lot more trouble for bulls. The 5-wave move up from April may have completed with this morning's quick high, which in turn completes the 5-wave move up from November 2012 (and in turn that completes a large zigzag correction pattern off the November 2008 low).

Nasdaq-100, NDX, Daily chart

Key Levels for NDX:
- bullish above 4100
- bearish below 3985

The RUT had a relatively strong day yesterday but today it gave it all back and then some. Buyers of the small caps yesterday are already underwater. Today's candle looks even more bearish than NDX and is another bearish engulfing candlestick after failing to hold above a 62% retracement of its July-August decline. I haven't seen anything bullish about the RUT's price pattern since its double top on July 1st and believe it will continue to lead the way lower.

Russell-2000, RUT, Daily chart

Key Levels for RUT:
- bullish above 1191
- bearish below 1150

The bond market might have a little rally left in its gas tank before starting a larger pullback correction but it's now vulnerable to starting a pullback at any time. It has a clean 5-wave move up from December and while it could press higher (especially since there's no bearish divergence on its daily or weekly charts) but the risk of a downturn in the bonds appears to be growing. On the TLT weekly chart below I show a pullback to its broken 2012-2013 downtrend line, in the 110 area in November, before starting a stronger rally into next year. I remain in the (small) camp that's looking for higher bond prices (lower yields) into next year. This would give the Fed some cover not to raise rates (the bond market is in charge of rates even though the Fed likes to think it controls them).

20+ Year Treasury ETF, TLT, Weekly chart

Since the TRAN's July 23rd high at 8515 I've wondered if we'd see one more attempt at a new high and achieve the projection at 8591, shown on its weekly chart below, which is where the c-wave of an a-b-c move up from October 2011 would achieve 162% of the a-wave. Today's high was a minor new high, near 8538, but still a little shy of the 8591 projection. From a short-term perspective I see the potential for only one more minor new high but probably a little short of its projection. Nevertheless, it's looking like a good setup for a top this week and then a major reversal.

Transportation Index, TRAN, Weekly chart

The U.S. dollar's rally from July 1st should end soon and then possibly start a month-long consolidation or a deeper pullback. The rally from July 1st is the 2nd leg up in the rally from May and would be 162% of the 1st leg up at 83.22. The downtrend line from June 2010 - July 2013 is near 83.45 so that gives us an upside target zone to watch for now. If we get a choppy pullback/consolidation this month I'll then look for a break higher and as long as it stays above 81.50 in a pullback (assuming we'll get one this month) I'll stay bullish the dollar.

U.S. Dollar contract, DX, Weekly chart

Gold sold off hard yesterday and dropped it to a new low for the decline from July 10th. That decline has been very choppy and it's what has kept me thinking we'll see another bounce up in its sideways triangle that it's been in since 2013 but it should stay above the uptrend line from 2001-2005, which was tested with the overnight low at 1261.90. If it continues lower from here, and especially if it breaks below its June 3rd low at 1240, it will point much lower sooner rather than later. I have a minimum downside target near 1000.

Gold continuous contract, GC, Weekly chart

On August 19th oil broke below its uptrend line from June 2012 - January 2014, currently near 98, and its 200-week MA. By last Friday it had bounced back up to its 20-dma and its 200-week MA, which this week is at 96.25. It sold off sharply yesterday, leaving a bearish kiss goodbye, but rallied back up today for another test of its 20-dma at 95.44. Today's rally created an inside day so it's hard to judge the merit of the bounce but if it's able to bounce higher it could test its broken uptrend line near 98. However, oil looks like it drop a little lower before setting up a higher bounce later this year, to be followed by a stronger decline next year.

Oil continuous contract, CL, Weekly chart

Thursday morning will be busy with economic reports, including the important ADP report and some other measures of employment. Employment numbers are what the Fed has been discussing recently so the market could react to anything they believe will turn the Fed more dovish (not needing so much stimulation). The ISM Services at 10:00 AM is not likely to move the market, especially if comes in close to expectations and not much of a change from July's number (58.7). The big reaction might come from the ECB's rate decision (market expects a cut) and any firm plans (not just talk) about their own QE program.

Economic reports and Summary

There's a lot coming together this week for a major market high. We have over-the-top bullish sentiment at a time when the wave pattern looks to be completing (and the high bullish sentiment is typical in final 5th waves so there's a good match with sentiment and the wave count). The waning momentum at the new highs also fits for a final 5th wave scenario since 5th waves are almost always negatively divergent against the previous 3rd wave high.

We obviously do not have any confirming signals to indicate we have made or will see a high this week but that's the setup. Today's bearish engulfing candlesticks for NDX and RUT at resistance are a real heads up for a possible top made today. I see a little more upside potential for SPX and the DOW but it's not something I'd want to bet my money on from here. SPX even made its Gann number at 2007 (opposite its March 2009 low). The pieces are in place for the bears, what few remain.

Upside potential is dwarfed by downside risk so good luck in the coming week and I'll be back with you next Wednesday.

Keene H. Little, CMT

In the end everything works out and if it doesn't work out, it is not the end. Old Indian Saying

New Plays

Mr. Putin, Master of Subtlety

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:

The market looks a little vulnerable here. Early gains faded on Wednesday. The S&P 500, the NASDAQ composite and the small cap Russell 2000 all ended the session in the red. Losses were not that bad but the NASDAQ and the Russell both produced bearish engulfing candlestick reversal patterns.

Tomorrow the market will be focused on two things. First will be the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates. More importantly if the ECB announces any sort of QE or stimulus plans. ECB President Mario Draghi will be holding a press conference after the ECB decision is released.

The second major issue remains the conflict in Ukraine. There were stories today that Russia and Ukraine were talking over a ceasefire deal. At the same time Russia announced it is staging major exercises for its troops that handle their strategic nuclear arsenal. Yes, you read that right. Russia's is staging practice drills for its nuke teams. You have to hand it to Russian President Putin for his subtlety. At the same time U.S. and NATO forces are staging exercise in Western Ukraine while the fighting rages in Eastern Ukraine. NATO is also holding a two-day summit this week.

Reaction to these headlines above could move markets or stocks could just churn sideways while investors wait for the U.S. jobs report due out on Friday morning.

Given the market's performance today we are not adding any new trades tonight.

In Play Updates and Reviews

Early Morning Gains Fade

by James Brown

Click here to email James Brown

Editor's Note:
The stock market spiked higher at the open but gains faded into losses by the closing bell.

DAL and PZZA hit our stop loss.

MS and OIH both hit our bullish entry triggers.

Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Green Plains Inc. - GPRE - close: 45.75 change: +1.07

Stop Loss: 42.75
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +12.2%
Entry on August 11 at $40.77
Listed on August 09, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: The relative strength in GPRE continues. The stock rallied from its 10-dma and surged +2.3% to close at a new high. We will adjust our stop loss to $42.75. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: August 09, 2014:
GPRE has been a monster stock for investors over the last couple of years. Summer of 2012 the stock was trading for less than $5.00 a share. Today GPRE is trading at levels not seen since early 2006. The company is considered part of the basic materials sector. They're listed in the specialty chemicals industry. What they do is make ethanol and a lot of it.

According to the company website, "Green Plains is a vertically-integrated ethanol producer based in Omaha, Nebraska. We currently have an ethanol production capacity of approximately 1.0 billion gallons per year with our 12 plants." Another big part of their business is "Distillers grains are an important co-product of Green Plains’ ethanol production. At capacity our plants will produce approximately 2.9 million tons of distillers grains annually that will be used as a high-protein, high-energy animal fodder and feed supplement. Corn oil is also a co-product of ethanol production that is being extracted at all 12 of our plants."

Earlier this year GPRE made headlines when they purchased their own cattle-feed yard. Distiller's grain is a byproduct of the ethanol production process. Previously GPRE would try and sell it to ranchers as cattle feed. Sometimes that proved difficult to sell all of its distiller's grain. GPRE has decided a great way to handle the problem is buy their own cattle yard. They'll be able to raise their own cattle with the byproduct of their main business of ethanol production.

Of course ethanol is their main product and it could be a great year for GPRE. The company's input costs for their main ingredients of corn and natural gas have been falling in 2014. That's going to boost their ethanol margins. Piper Jaffray actually upgraded GBX in July on this dynamic and raised their price target on GPRE to $45.00.

It looks like the ethanol market is pretty healthy. The U.S. saw ethanol exports soar +56% in the first six months of 2014. Most of that went to Canada. Demand for ethanol could go up if some senators have their way. A handful of senators are pushing to boost the EPA's requirement on ethanol in our fuel. If they are successful it would raise the ethanol requirements by +40%.

The stock has displayed significant relative strength. The S&P 500 index is up +4.5% year to date. GPRE is up +108%. More and more mutual funds have been adding GPRE to their portfolio. Yet not everyone agrees with the bullish outlook on GPRE. Short interest is climbing as well. The most recent data listed short interest at 25% of the small 28.6 million share float. If this rally continues it could spark more short covering.

The last few days have seen GPRE consolidating sideways in the $39.50-40.60 zone. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $40.75. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $38.40.

We are not setting an exit target tonight but I will note that the point & figure chart is bullish and suggesting at $69.00 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long GPRE stock @ $40.77

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Dec $45 call (GPRE141220C45) entry $2.95*

09/03/14 new stop @ 42.75
08/30/14 new stop @ 42.25
08/27/14 new stop @ 41.85
08/23/14 new stop @ 40.95
08/14/14 GPRE announces $100 million buy back and doubles dividend to 8c.
08/13/14 new stop @ 39.25
08/11/14 trade opens on gap higher at $40.77, trigger was $40.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Morgan Stanley - MS - close: 34.56 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 32.95
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Entry on September 03 at $34.75
Listed on September 02, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.8 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: Our brand new play on MS has been triggered. The stock gapped open higher at $34.74 and rallied toward $35.00 before reversing its gains. Shares closed virtually unchanged on the day. The market's major indices delivered a similar performance.

Our trade opened at $34.75 this morning but investors may want to wait for a new bounce from here before launching new positions.

Earlier Comments: September 2, 2014:
MS is in the financial sector. They're one of the biggest players in the financial services industry. The stock has been outperforming its peers by a significant margin. Citigroup (C) is still down -0.8% for 2014. Goldman Sachs (GS) is only up +1.0%. JP Morgan (JPM) is up +1.6% and BAC is up +3.3% in 2014. The XLF financial ETF is up +6.8% year to date. Yet MS is up +9.4%.

The company has managed to build its revenues on stronger wealth management business. The company has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates four quarters in a row.

Their most recent earnings report was July 17th. Analysts were expecting a profit of 55 cents a share on revenues of $8.18 billion. MS delivered $0.60 a share with revenues coming in at $8.61 billion. The company's profit has more than doubled from a year ago.

The stock has spent months consolidating sideways under resistance near $33.50. This past month has seen a bullish breakout higher. Now broken resistance near $33.50 should be new support. MS is currently testing short-term resistance near $34.50.

Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $34.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long MS stock @ $34.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $35 call (MS150117C25) entry $1.70*

09/03/14 triggered @ 34.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 44.96 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 42.90
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +2.0%
Entry on August 14 at $44.08
Listed on August 13, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 36 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: Most of the market spiked higher at the open. MSFT actually spiked lower. I don't see any one story to explain the relative weakness but the dip didn't last long and MSFT pared its losses.

I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments: August 13, 2014:
Microsoft Corp. is a technology behemoth. The company was founded in 1975. They have grown into a massive company with 128,000 employees around the world. Their software is used by billions of people every day. They also offer technology services, tablets, X-box gaming platform, networking and server software, and their Nokia division. MSFT has jumped head first into the cloud computing industry. Altogether MSFT generated almost $87 billion in sales the past 12 months with a net income of $22 billion.

Investors worried about MSFT and how the death of the PC would slowly chip away at its core products - mainly the Windows operating system and Microsoft Office. However, this past summer there has been evidence that the PC market isn't dead. Intel reported stronger than expected chip sales for PCs, especially to enterprise customers. Meanwhile MSFT stopped supporting the Windows XP operating system. MSFT released the XP system back in 2001. Their decision to stop providing updates means the XP system could become less secure to viruses, malware, and hacking. One analyst estimated that 25% of the PCs currently connected to the Internet were still running XP. That's millions and millions of computers that will need to either upgrade their software or likely be scrapped and upgraded to a new computer with a newer version of MSFT's software. The upgrade cycle could last a while.

Investors have been pretty optimistic since Satya Nadella was crowned CEO of MSFT back in February this year. He has been focusing the company on the cloud and it seems to be working. MSFT's commercial cloud revenues soared +147% with sales on track to exceed $4 billion a year. Even Bing, MSFT's search engine rival to Google, is improving. Bing's ad revenues rose +40% last quarter and snatched almost 20% of the search engine market. MSFT expects their Bing division to turn profitable in 2016.

MSFT's most recent earnings report on July 22nd was mixed. They missed the bottom line estimate by 5 cents. Yet revenues came in ahead of expectations. Wall Street was looking for quarterly revenues of $22.99 billion. MSFT reported $23.38 billion. Several analyst firms upgraded their outlook on MSFT following the earnings report. Many of the new price targets are in the $50 area.

Technically shares of MSFT have a bullish trend of higher lows. The stock saw some post-earnings depression in the second half of July but now that's over and investors are buying the dip.

Tonight I am suggesting investors open bullish positions tomorrow morning. We'll try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $41.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long MSFT stock @ 44.08

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $50 call (MSFT150117c50) entry $0.45

08/23/14 new stop @ 42.90
08/14/14 trade begins. MSFT opens at $44.08
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Oil Services ETF - OIH - close: 54.61 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -0.3%
Entry on September 03 at $54.77
Listed on August 30, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 3.8 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: Last night we adjusted our entry point to buy the OIH at $54.75. The market's strong open this morning pushed the OIH to gap higher at $54.77. The ETF did pare its gains but still outperformed the major indices.

Earlier Comments: August 30, 2014:
The Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (exchange traded fund) tries to mimic the Market Vectors US Listed Oil Services 25 index. The top ten holdings for this ETF are SLB, HAL, NOV, CAM, BHI, SDRL, WFT, ESV.L, RIG, and HP. SLB and HAL are by far the biggest two components.

A multi-week decline in the price of crude oil has not stymied the industry's interest in drilling. The number of oil rigs in the U.S. hit an all-time record of 1,588 rigs about two weeks ago. That's the highest number since Baker Hughes started counting back in 1987.

Meanwhile crude oil prices appear to peak in late June this year but after a two-month decline oil is starting to rebound. As geopolitical tensions continue to rise in the Middle East (with ISIS growing in Iraq and Syria) and tensions with Russia and Ukraine, it could put a floor under energy prices, especially as we get closer to winter. Oil tends to show strength in the fall.

Technically the OIH produced a correction from its July highs but has started to bounce after a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (shown on the weekly chart below). Tonight we're suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $55.75, which is just above the simple 50-dma.

The $58.00 level is short-term resistance but our long-term target is higher. Currently the point & figure chart is forecasting at $61 target.

- Suggested Positions -

Long the OIH ETF @ $54.77

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long 2015 Jan $55 call (OIH150117C55) entry $2.15*

09/03/14 triggered on gap higher at $54.77, trigger was $54.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
09/02/14 adjust entry strategy: move the trigger from $55.75 down to $54.75, adjust the stop loss to $53.45.
Adjust the option strike to the 2015 Jan $55 call
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Skyworks Solutions - SWKS - close: 55.49 change: -0.80

Stop Loss: 52.45
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +5.4%
Entry on August 07 at $52.65
Listed on August 02, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: SWKS hit some profit taking today with a -1.4% decline. It may have been exaggerated by the big drop in shares of AAPL. Traders did buy the dip intraday.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: August 2, 2014:
The semiconductor stocks have led the market higher most of the year but the SOX semiconductor index has reversed sharply in the last couple of weeks. This correction in the SOX has shaved its year to date gains to +13.9%. Shares of SWKS have not seen the same pullback and this semiconductor stock is up +82% this year and looks poised to keep the rally going.

Who is SWKS? According to the company website, " Skyworks Solutions, Inc. is an innovator of high performance analog semiconductors. Leveraging core technologies, Skyworks supports automotive, broadband, wireless infrastructure, energy management, GPS, industrial, medical, military, wireless networking, smartphone and tablet applications. The Company's portfolio includes amplifiers, attenuators, circulators, demodulators, detectors, diodes, directional couplers, front-end modules, hybrids, infrastructure RF subsystems, isolators, lighting and display solutions, mixers, modulators, optocouplers, optoisolators, phase shifters, PLLs/synthesizers/VCOs, power dividers/combiners, power management devices, receivers, switches and technical ceramics. Headquartered in Woburn, Mass., Skyworks is worldwide with engineering, manufacturing, sales and service facilities throughout Asia, Europe and North America."

SWKS is probably best known for being a component supplier for Apple's iPhones. SWKS is also supplying components to Amazon.com for that company's new Fire Phone.

SWKS soared in mid July following a better than expected earnings report. Wall Street was looking for a profit of 80 cents after SWKS guided higher to 80 cents in June. They still managed to surprise with a bottom line profit of 83 cents a share. Revenues soared almost 35% to $587 million, which was better than the $570 million estimate, up from $535 before SWKS's June guidance. SWKS management also raised their guidance going forward.

Following SWKS's much better than expected report there was a wave of bullish analyst comments. Several firms raised their SWKS price targets into the $60-65 zone. SWKS's bullish guidance is probably due to Apple's new iPhone 6, which is expected to be unveiled in September. Odds are good that SWKS will rally into Apple's product launch in September.

Shares of SWKS were showing relative strength on Friday with a bounce from support near $50.00 and a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. We are suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $52.65.

- Suggested Positions -

Long SWKS stock @ $52.65

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long Nov $55 call (SWKS141122C55) entry $2.86

08/30/14 new stop @ 52.45
08/13/14 new stop @ 49.95
08/07/14 triggered @ 52.65
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

Tekmira Pharmaceuticals - TKMR - close: 19.23 change: -0.89

Stop Loss: 19.70
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Entry on August -- at $---.--
Listed on August 30, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million
New Positions: Yes, see below

09/03/14: TKMR continued to retreat lower today and underperformed the market with a -4.4% decline. If shares don't recover soon we'll likely drop it as a candidate. Currently we are on the sidelines with a trigger at $22.30.

Earlier Comments: August 30, 2014:
Biotech stocks have been some of the market's best performers this year. The BTK biotech index is up +34.3% year to date. The IBB biotech index is up +21.8%. Big name players like GILD and their $84,000 Sovaldi cure for hepatitis C has captured the imagination for investors. Meanwhile another story is making big waves in the biotech industry and that is the world's worst outbreak of Ebola.

Ebola is an extremely deadly virus. The virus is one of several Viral Hemorrhagic Fevers. According to the CDC, this virus was discovered back in 1976 "in what is now the Democratic Republic of the Congo, near the Ebola River." There are a handful of subspecies of the virus, which can have a 50% to 90% fatality rate. There is no known effective cure. Another challenge is the time frame. A person can be infected for eight to 21 days without showing any symptoms. Once they start showing symptoms they become contagious. Unfortunately, the early symptoms are pretty common like headaches, sore throat, a fever, muscle soreness.

Right now four countries in Africa are facing a serious crisis. Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, and Sierra Leone have all reported deaths from the current outbreak that has killed over 1,750 confirmed cases and suspected cases of more than 3,000. The U.N. just warned that the outbreak is accelerating beyond control and cases could surge to more than 20,000. TKMR has been getting a lot of trader attention because the company is working on a potential Ebola treatment.

According to the company website, "Tekmira Pharmaceuticals Corporation is a leading RNA interference (RNAi) therapeutics company. With more than 14 years of industry experience, Tekmira is a global leader in the RNAi field. We are developing novel drugs in areas where there is a significant unmet medical need and commercial opportunity. We also license our leading lipid nanoparticle (LNP) delivery technology to partners around the world."

Right now investors are looking at TKMR for its potential Ebola drug (TKM-Ebola). In March this year the U.S. FDA gave TKM-Ebola fast track status to develop and test this new treatment. TKMR has cautioned that this is still in development and they want to work with W.H.O. and the F.D.A. and the emergency labs currently working to develop some kind of treatment for the African Ebola Outbreak. It could be weeks or months before we know more.

As traders we should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade due to TKMR's volatility and the nature of headline risk.

The stock bounced near round-number support in the $20.00 area on Friday. Aggressive investors may want to jump in right now at current levels. We're suggesting a trigger to open small bullish positions at $22.30, just above last week's high.

Trigger @ $22.30 *small positions*

(this is an aggressive trade)

- Suggested Positions -

Buy TKMR stock @ $22.30

Ubiquiti Networks - UBNT - close: 45.63 change: -1.05

Stop Loss: 43.90
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -2.4%
Entry on September 02 at $46.75
Listed on August 26, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 902 thousand
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: Hmm... UBNT's early morning spike higher failed near yesterday's highs. The stock reversed sharply and underperformed the major indices with a -2.2% decline. This relative weakness might be a warning signal. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: August 26, 2014: UBNT is in the technology sector. The company operates in the wireless technology and networking industry. According to the company press release, "Ubiquiti Networks is closing the digital divide by building network communication platforms for everyone and everywhere. With over 20 million devices deployed in over 180 countries, Ubiquiti is transforming under-networked businesses and communities. Our leading edge platforms, airMAX, airFiber, UniFi, UniFi Video, UniFi VoIP, mFi and EdgeMAX combine innovative technology, disruptive price performance and the support of a global user community to eliminate barriers to connectivity."

The company has been consistently beating earnings estimates. They just wrapped up their fiscal year 2014 with the earnings report on August 7th, 2014. The company managed to beat estimates all four quarters. Their 2014 Q4 numbers showed sales up +54% from a year ago while EPS were up +70%.

It has been a rocky year for the stock price in spite of the company's earnings track record. If you recall the stock market suffered a pullback in March this year. The high-growth stocks and momentum names were hit pretty hard. UBNT was one of those that was punished and shares collapsed from $55 to $30 over the next several weeks. Since then UBNT has been slowly recovering.

Right now the stock is on the verge of breaking through resistance. A new breakout could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 32% of the small 26.6 million share float.

We are suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $46.75.

- Suggested Positions -

Long UBNT stock @ $46.75

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long OCT $48 call (UBNT141018C48) entry $2.10*

09/02/14 triggered @ 46.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

WhiteWave Foods Co. - WWAV - close: 34.73 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 32.90
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -0.5%
Entry on August 19 at $34.91
Listed on August 16, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: WWAV also encountered some profit taking today with a -1.6% decline. The close under its 10-dma is short-term bearish. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments: August 16, 2014:
Consumer tastes and buying habits are changing and more people are opting for more natural and organic foods.

WWAV is in the consumer goods sector. You might not recognize the name but they're behind brands like Silk, Horizon Organic, Land-O-Lakes, International Delight, Alpro, and Earthbound Farm Organic.

WWAV considers themselves "a leading consumer packaged food and beverage company that manufactures, markets, distributes, and sells branded plant-based foods and beverages, coffee creamers and beverages, premium dairy products and organic produce throughout North America and Europe. The Company is focused on providing consumers with innovative, great-tasting food and beverage choices that meet their increasing desires for nutritious, flavorful, convenient, and responsibly-produced products. The Company's widely-recognized, leading brands distributed in North America include Silk plant-based foods and beverages, International Delight and LAND O LAKES* coffee creamers and beverages, Horizon Organic premium dairy products and Earthbound Farm' certified organic salads, fruits and vegetables. Its popular European brands of plant-based foods and beverages include Alpro and Provamel" (The Land-O-Lakes brand is licensed from the owners).

If you're looking for a company that is growing then keep an eye on WWAV. They have beaten Wall Street's estimates on both the top and bottom line at least four quarters in a row. The last three quarters management has been raising their guidance. In Q4 2013 WWAV's revenues were up +11.5%. The first quarter of 2014 saw revenues soared +36.5%.

Their latest report was August 7th. Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.22 on revenues of $815.6 million. WWAV delivered a profit of $0.23 with revenues climbing +39.5% to $837.9 million.

The natural and organic retailers might be facing tougher margins and stronger competition (WFM, SFM, TFM, NGVC) but that doesn't seem to be the case for a producer and distributor like WWAV.

You can see the big surge in the stock price on August 7th as traders reacted to the bullish earnings news and guidance. After consolidating gains the last few days shares of WWAV have started to push higher again. They have been outperforming the major market indices and WWAV closed at a new all-time highs on Friday.

We believe the rally continues but I am labeling this a more aggressive, higher-risk trade due to WWAV's recent volatility. The last several weeks have seen some significant swings.

Friday's intraday high was $34.06. We're suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $34.15.

- Suggested Positions -

Long WWAV stock @ $34.91

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long OCT $35 call (WWAV141018C35) entry $1.70*

09/02/14 new stop @ 32.90
08/19/14 trade opens on gap higher at $34.91, suggested entry point was $34.15.
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike

BEARISH Play Updates

Mobile Mini, Inc. - MINI - close: 38.47 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 41.40
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.9%
Entry on August 28 at $38.80
Listed on August 26, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 265 thousand
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: MINI slipped to new relative lows. I would consider new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments: August 27, 2014:
The mobile storage space might be facing some headwinds. MINI provides commercial storage, construction storage, residential storage, and mobile offices. According to the company's website, "Mobile Mini, Inc. is the world's leading provider of portable storage solutions through its total lease fleet of over 213,000 portable storage and office units with 135 locations in the United States, United Kingdom and Canada. Mobile Mini, Inc. went public in 1994 and trades on NASDAQ under the symbol MINI. Mobile Mini offers customers a wide range of portable storage and office products in varying lengths and widths with an assortment of differentiated features such as: proprietary security systems, multiple door options and 100 different configuration options."

Sales are growing but MINI is developing a trend of missing earnings or delivering lackluster results. MINI missed Wall Street's EPS estimates back in February and April. The latest earnings report was July 30th. Revenues were almost +10% from a year ago but earnings were down. MINI reported a 23-cent profit, which was in-line with estimates but down from 25 cents a year ago. Investors crushed the stock following the late July earnings report. MINI was already weak through most of July and then got hammered from $43 to under $38 on its earnings news.

The stock's long-term up trend might be in jeopardy. The company is not growing fast enough to justify its P/E above 40. The stock's oversold bounce from the post-earnings sell-off has stalled at technical resistance at the exponential 200-dma. Now it appears that MINI is beginning to roll over.

Today's low was $38.93. I'm suggesting a trigger at $38.80 to open bearish positions.

- Suggested Positions -

Short MINI stock @ $38.80

08/28/14 triggered @ 38.80

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage - NGVC - close: 18.67 chg: +0.13

Stop Loss: 20.10
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: +4.0%
Entry on August 12 at $19.45
Listed on August 11, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 209 thousand
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: NGVC displayed some relative strength with a +0.7% bounce on Wednesday. More conservative traders might want to lower their stop loss. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Earlier Comments: August 11, 2014:
The last six to nine months have not been good for the natural food and organic-related retail chains. Whole Foods (WFM), The Fresh Market (TFM), Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM), and Natural Grocers have all underperformed the market by a wide margin.

According to NGVC's press release the company was "founded in Colorado by Margaret & Philip Isely in 1955, Natural Grocers was built on the premise that consumers should have access to affordable, high-quality foods and dietary supplements, along with nutrition knowledge to help them support their own health. The family-run store has since grown into a successful national chain with locations across Colorado, Texas, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, Missouri, New Mexico, Montana, Kansas, Idaho, Nebraska, Arizona and Oregon, and employs over 2000 people. Although the company went public in July 2012, Isely family members continue to manage the company day to day, building on the foundation of their parents' business."

The good news is that the natural food and organic food craze is reaching a wider audience and more and more consumers are making healthier choices. The bad news is that this previously higher-margin business, in a notoriously low-margin industry, has drawn tons of competition. That has been the biggest challenge. Big players like Wal-mart and Target in addition to major regional grocery chains are all starting to offer more natural and organic wares. Meanwhile those already in the space are competing with each other as well. Margins are shrinking as competition heats up.

Shares of NGVC plunged back in May after the company lowered its same-store sales forecast for 2014. The stock dropped again on August 1st following its earnings report. Earnings were in-line with estimates but guidance was soft.

The path of least resistance is down and NGVG looks headed for its all-time lows in the $17.00 area.

The biggest risk with this bearish positions on NGVC is the crowd. There are a lot of investors already bearish on this stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 33.3% of the very, very small 5.1 million share float. That significantly raises the risk of a short squeeze.

We are suggesting bearish positions with a trigger to short NGVC at $19.45 but I am labeling this an aggressive, high-risk trade. NGVG does have options but most of the option spreads are too wide. We will try and limit our risk with a stop loss at $21.05.

*Aggressive Trade* Use small positions. - Suggested Positions -

short NGVC @ $19.45

08/21/14 new stop @ 20.10
08/12/14 triggered @ 19.45

Transocean Ltd. - RIG - close: 38.05 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 40.01
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Entry on September 03 at $38.20
Listed on August 25, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 6.4 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: Last night we adjusted our entry point strategy to launch bearish positions in RIG at the opening bell today. The stock gapped open higher at $38.20 and rallied toward short-term resistance near its 10-dma and 20-dma before reversing most of its gains. I would still launch new positions at current levels.

Earlier Comments: August 25, 2014:
The oil drillers could be facing a significant downturn due to lower demand and rising supply. That's a tough combination for any business.

RIG is one of the biggest. According to the company website, "We are a leading international provider of offshore contract drilling services for energy companies, owning and operating among the world's most versatile fleets with a particular focus on deepwater and harsh-environment drilling. Our fleet of 79 mobile offshore drilling units includes the world's largest fleet of high-specification rigs consisting of ultra-deepwater, deepwater and premium jackup rigs. In addition, we have seven ultra-deepwater drillships and five high-specification jackups under construction."

The company's latest earnings report on August 6th looked pretty good. Wall Street was expecting a profit of $1.12 a share. RIG delivered $1.61 - blow out number. Revenues also beat estimates at $2.33 billion versus the $2.29 estimate but revenues were down from a year ago. Investors ignored the better than expected results. That's because the industry is facing a number of headwinds.

Day rates are dropping and more rigs are sitting idle. Analysts are lowering estimates due to rising down time. RIG's latest fleet update showed that out-of-service time for 2014 had risen by 28 days. Their 2015 projected out-of-service time had surged 236 days. That is significant when you consider that these rigs get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per day they operate. Of course those numbers are coming down.

Angie Sedita, an analyst with UBS, said, "We believe dayrate pressure will persist given limited rig tenders (demand) and fierce competition, with dayrates already down 25%-40% from peak levels."

Raymond James analyst Praveen Narra provided more details on their bearish outlook. According to Narra:

After a decade of good times, the deepwater drilling rig market is facing a multiyear down-cycle. Historically, most offshore drilling cycles have been short-lived as there have usually been sudden demand shocks that tend to self correct relatively quickly. This time, it is more of a new rig supply problem compounded by a moderation in offshore spending from the suddenly “return driven” multinational major oil companies. That means this down-cycle should be more drawn out than usual. Specifically, we think the downturn will take about three years to play out with average floater day-rates falling about 25% with over 60 floating rigs needing to be stacked (either warm stacked or cold stacked). More importantly for investors, we think consensus 2016 floater estimates (on average) are still about 25% too high. Put another way, earnings multiples are not as attractive as some now think, in our view. Obviously, the lower-end, older floating assets will be hit the hardest. While everyone loses in this environment...

If you're curious a "stacked" rig is not in service. They can be warm stacked, which means they are idle but still have a crew and ready for deployment. A cold stacked rig has essentially been mothballed.

The bearish outlook for RIG is evident in the stock's decline. Shares just broke down under support near $38.00. The Point & Figure chart is bearish and forecasting at $30.00 target but this target could fall further. It is worth noting that there are a lot of traders already bearish on RIG. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 327 million share float. That can spark short squeezes like the one back in April and again in June.

- Suggested Positions -

Short RIG @ $38.20

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

Long OCT $35 PUT (RIG141018P35) entry $0.27*

09/03/14 trade begins. RIG gaps higher at $38.20
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
09/02/14 remove the trigger ($37.25) and short RIG now at current levels.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike


Delta Air Lines - DAL - close: 38.82 change: -2.11

Stop Loss: 38.65
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -5.2%
Entry on August 21 at $40.75
Listed on August 19, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 11 million
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: DAL lowered guidance this morning and shares crumbled -5% and hit our stop loss at $38.65. The company warned that higher fuel prices would impact profits. They also reduced their revenue guidance.

DAL blamed events in Russia (Ukraine), the Middle East, and Africa (Ebola virus scare) for its reduced outlook. A key metric for airlines is their Passenger Revenue per Available Seat Mile (PRASM). DAL lowered their Q3 guidance for PRASM from +2% to 4% growth down to +2% to 3% growth. They also lowered their margin growth expectations from 16-17% to 15-16%.

The stock gapped open lower at $39.49 and then fell to $38.37 intraday. Our stop loss was $38.65.

- Suggested Positions -

DAL stock @ $40.75 exit $38.65 (-5.2%)

- (or for more adventurous traders, try this option) -

2015 Jan $45 call (DAL150117C45) entry $1.70* exit $1.07** (-37.0%)

09/03/14 stopped out after DAL lowers guidance
**option exit price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was closed.
08/30/14 new stop @ 38.65
08/21/14 triggered @ 40.75
*option entry price is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time our play was opened.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike



Papa John's Intl. Inc. - PZZA - close: 39.87 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 40.25
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: -1.7%
Entry on August 25 at $39.56
Listed on August 23, 2014
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
Average Daily Volume = 368 thousand
New Positions: see below

09/03/14: The stock market's early morning strength was enough to push PZZA past resistance near $40.00. Shares of PZZA hit our new stop loss at $40.25 before reversing lower.

- Suggested Positions -

Short PZZA stock @ $39.56 closed $40.25 (-1.7%)

09/03/14 stopped out
09/02/14 new stop @ 40.25
08/25/14 trade begins. PZZA gaps higher at $39.56