The Russell's winning streak, mediocre as it was, ended at 5 consecutive days. The index traded up to 1,565 intraday but faded in the afternoon with the rest of the indexes to lose just under 2 points. That is definitely not traumatic and a 2 point decline is hardly anything to get worked up about.
The Dow surged again thanks to Boeing adding more than 50 points. Without Boeing in the index, we would be fighting to stay over the 24,000 level instead of 25,000. The market indexes are starting to show some volatility and that could mean there is a pause in our immediate future.
Stop Loss Updates
Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow.
We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.
Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green.
We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.
Current Position Changes
BB - BlackBerry
The long position was entered at the open.
HIMX - Himax Technology
The long position was stopped at $10.35.
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BULLISH Play Updates
BB - Blackberry Ltd - Company Profile
No specific news. Minor gain to a new multiyear high.
Original Trade Description: January 8th.
BlackBerry Limited operates as security software and services company in securing, connecting, and mobilizing enterprises worldwide. The company operates in three segments: Software & Services, Mobility Solutions, and Service Access Fees (SAF). The Software & Services segment offers enterprise software and services, including mobile-first security, productivity, collaboration, and end-point management solutions for the Enterprise of Things through the BlackBerry Secure platform; BlackBerry technology solutions, such as BlackBerry QNX, Certicom, Paratek, BlackBerry Radar, and intellectual property and licensing; AtHoc, which provides secure, networked crisis communications solutions; SecuSmart that offers secure voice and text messaging solutions with encryption and anti-eavesdropping facilities; licensing and services related to BlackBerry Messenger; and cybersecurity consulting services and tools. The Mobility Solutions segment engages in the development and licensing of secure device software and the outsourcing to partners of design, manufacturing, sales, and customer support for BlackBerry-branded handsets. This segment also develops software updates for its legacy BlackBerry 10 platform, and delivers BlackBerry productivity applications to Android smartphone users via the Google Play store; and sells its DTEK60, DTEK50, Priv, Leap, and Passport smartphones and smartphone accessories, as well as offers non-warranty repair services. The SAF segment consists of operations related to subscribers using mobile devices with its legacy BlackBerry 7 and prior operating systems. The company was formerly known as Research In Motion Limited and changed its name to BlackBerry Limited in July 2013. BlackBerry Limited was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Waterloo, Canada. Company description from FinViz.com
Expected earnings March 21st.
BlackBerry started out as a smartphone manufacturer under the name Research in Motion (RIMM). Over the years they failed to keep pace with Apple and Android and the BlackBerry phones are now just a niche market and they contract with another company to have them made.
BlackBerry has evolved into a software and services company with security software, mobility solutions, and dozens of other categories. The company is now the largest provider of automobile operating systems with tens of millions of cars using their QNX software.
They are using their experience in auto OS to build the next generation of autonomous vehicles. They announced last week that Baidu had chosen them to help develop self-driving technology. Baidu said "by integrating the QNX OS with the Apollo platform, we will enable carmakers to leap from prototype to production systems." BlackBerry radar, an asset tracking solution, is already available at more than 2,800 heavy-duty truck dealerships across North America. This software and equipment tracks trucks, loads, trailers, containers, heavy machinery and other transportation assets. Trucking companies and shippers can track the location of their cargo and vehicles in real time all the time.
Last week they reported earnings of 3 cents that beat estimates for a breakeven quarter. Revenues of $226 million beat estimates for $212 million. The company guided for the full year for revenue of $920-$950 million with software revenue up as much as 15%. This was the second quarter of positive earnings surprises after a long drought of weak results. The company promised positive EPS and cash flow for the future.
There are rumors in the market that BlackBerry could suddenly become an acquisition target because of their small size of $8 billion market cap and vast array of growing software services. Shares spiked to a new 4-year high on the earnings and guidance and the stock is suddenly hot once again. This is not some new fad company. There is history and there is a remarkable turnaround in progress.
I am going out to June with the option to get past the March earnings. There is likely to be some profit taking from the recent gains, so we need to buy some time.
I am going to recommend the stock but I am adding a March put, just in case the rebound fails. I fully expect the stock to be significantly higher a couple months from now but I am recommending a 50 cent insurance policy.
Long BB shares @ $14.22, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Long Mar $13 put @ 50 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long June $15 call @ $1.30, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
BOTZ - Global X Robotics AI - Company Profile
Since this is a long-term slow moving ETF position, there will not be daily commentary.
Original Trade Description: October 4th.
The investment seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Indxx Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic Index. The fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of the underlying index. The underlying index is designed to provide exposure to exchange-listed companies in developed markets that are involved in the development of robotics and/or artificial intelligence as defined by Indxx, the provider of the underlying index. The fund is non-diversified. Company description from FinViz.com.
Robots of every description are taking over the manufacturing sector, service sector, etc. Drones are automated. Autos are becoming autonomous.
Even more important to this ETF is the sudden arrival of Artificial Intelligence or AI. That is the buzzword for everything. Everybody is trying to get into the AI business.
This ETF took off last January and while there have been several mild hiccups along the way, the chart is nearly vertical as investors become aware of it.
I am going to lag back on the stop loss because this could be a long-term position.
Update 10/26: Shares of BOTZ fell 50 cents for the biggest one-day drop since the ETF began in September 2016. There was no news but volume of 4.16 million shares was the largest ever and well over the 964,000 historical average.
Long BOTZ shares @ $22.10, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long Mar $23 call @ 80 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
CHGG - Chegg Inc - Company Profile
No specific news.
Original Trade Description: November 27th
Chegg, Inc. operates student-first connected learning platform that help students transition from high school to college to career. The company's products and services help students to study for college admission exams, find the right college to accomplish their goals, get better grades and test scores while in school, and find internships that allow them to gain skills to help them enter the workforce after college. It offers print textbook and eTextbook library for rent and sale; and provides eTextbooks, supplemental materials, Chegg Study service, tutoring service, writing tools, textbook buyback, test preparation service, internships, and college admissions and scholarship services, as well as enrollment marketing and brand advertising services. The company has a strategic alliance with Ingram Content Group Inc. Chegg, Inc. was founded in 2005. Company description from FinViz.com.
Expected earnings Jan 29th.
The company reported Q3 earnings of 1 cent, up from a loss of 3 cents and beat earnings for a loss of 1 cent. Those are not big numbers but the company is investing for the future. Revenue of $62.6 million beat estimates for $57.7 million. The company guided for the full year for revenue of $251-$252 million, up from prior guidance of $241-$243 million.
The company just acquired Cogeon GmbH, a provider of AI driven adaptive math technology and the math app, Math42.com. With access to new original content, they can launch their own math courses to provide self-guided and individualized solutions to more students. This will increase their market share in the high school market. The company is growing at a 26% annual rate.
The company said recent studies showed 64% of high school graduates were not prepared for college level math courses. Some 40% of college freshmen have to take at least one remedial math course.
Citigroup just initiated coverage with a buy rating. With Chegg's 4% penetration into a very large addressable market, there is plenty of room to grow. The analyst said Chegg's business model is a positive feedback loop that aids in new subscriber acquisition and cross-selling. They have a pipeline of new products aimed at expanding the addressable market.
Shares declined after earnings but are rebounding from the post earnings depression.
Long CHGG shares @ $15.07, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long Apr $17.50 call @ 85 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
HIMX - Himax Technologies - Company Profile
No specific news. Shares continued their prior decline and stopped us out for a minor loss at $10.35.
Original Trade Description: December 27th.
Himax Technologies, Inc. is a fabless semiconductor solution provider dedicated to display imaging processing technologies. Himax is a worldwide market leader in display driver ICs and timing controllers used in TVs, laptops, monitors, mobile phones, tablets, digital cameras, car navigation, virtual reality (VR) devices and many other consumer electronics devices. Additionally, Himax designs and provides controllers for touch sensor displays, in-cell Touch and Display Driver Integration (TDDI) single-chip solutions, LED driver ICs, power management ICs, scaler products for monitors and projectors, tailor-made video processing IC solutions, silicon IPs and LCOS micro-displays for augmented reality (AR) devices and head-up displays (HUD) for automotive. The Company also offers digital camera solutions, including CMOS image sensors and wafer level optics for AR devices, 3D sensing and machine vision, which are used in a wide variety of applications such as mobile phone, tablet, laptop, TV, PC camera, automobile, security, medical devices and Internet of Things. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in Tainan, Taiwan, Himax currently employs around 2,150 people from three Taiwan-based offices in Tainan, Hsinchu and Taipei and country offices in China, Korea, Japan and the US. Himax has 3,011patents granted and 441patents pending approval worldwide as of September30th, 2017. Himax has retained its position as the leading display imaging processing semiconductor solution provider to consumer electronics brands worldwide. Company info from Himax Technologies.
Himax was setting new highs in early December and Citron Research tweeted the company was a fraud and the story behind the company was bogus. Citron never followed up with any facts but that was enough to crash the stock from $13.50 to $10.
Himax immediately posted a news release denying anything in the tweet. After trading sideways for the last couple of weeks they may be starting to rebound.
Himax reported Q3 earnings of 5 cents and revenue of $197.1 million which beat estimates for 4 cents and $191.3 million. Himax makes the wafer level optics (WLO) that powers the facial recognition in Apple's iPhone X. Since Apple is probably going to make that a standard feature in all future iPhones this is a good deal for Himax. Because of the iPhone shipping cycle, they should post good Q4 earnings. The company said WLO shipments would accelerate in Q4 and beyond. They also said they were working on several new development projects with Apple that would be announced in the future. Apple is also expected to bring the facial recognition technology to the iPad Pro products.
The company guided for Q4 earnings of 13-15 cents, which would be a major jump from the 5 cents in Q3.
They also announced a new partnership with Qualcomm to bring 3D sensing and facial recognition to Android devices and expects to mass produce and ship the technology in Q1-2018.
Expected earnings February 8th.
Because HIMX shares declined so sharply, they could be immune from any early month volatility in January. There is no guarantee it is a plausible scenario.
Update 1/2/18: Himax announced the industry's first AI based human presence IoT visual sensor for consumer applications, called WiseEye. The sensor can detect, localize, count and profile humans. The sensor would work in offices to turn on/off lights, heat/AC when humans are not present, work on household appliances to perform functions when humans are present and sleep when they are absent.
Closed 1/9: Long HIMX shares @ $10.25, exit $10.35, +.10 gain.
Closed 1/9: Long Feb $11 call @ 75 cents, exit .61, -.14 loss.
IMMU - Immunomedics Inc - Company Profile
No specific news. Shares rallied in delayed reaction to the royalty sale and funding on Monday.
Original Trade Description: December 23rd.
Immunomedics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of monoclonal antibody-based products for the targeted treatment of cancer, autoimmune disorders, and other diseases. The company engages in developing antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) products comprising IMMU-132, an ADC that contains SN-38, which is in Phase II trials used for the treatment of patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and small-cell and non-small-cell lung cancers; IMMU-130, an anti-CEACAN5-SN-38 ADC that is in Phase II trials for the treatment of solid tumors and metastatic colorectal cancer; and IMMU-140 that targets HLA-DR for the potential treatment of liquid cancers. It also develops products for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases, including epratuzumab, anti-CD22 antibody; veltuzumab, anti-CD20 antibody; milatuzumab, anti-CD74 antibody; and IMMU-114, a humanized anti-HLA-DR antibody. The company also provides LeukoScan, a diagnostic imaging product to determine the location and extent of infection/inflammation in bone. In addition, it offers other product candidates for the treatment of solid tumors and hematologic malignancies, as well as other diseases, which are in various stages of clinical and pre-clinical development. The company has a research collaboration with The Bayer Group to study epratuzumab as a thorium-227-labeled antibody. Immunomedics, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Morris Plains, New Jersey. Company description from FinViz.com.
Immunomedics recently announced a blinded trial on breast cancer drug sacituzumab govitecan showed positive results. The drug is an anti-TROP-2 antibody that can target multiple tumor types including breast cancer, lung cancer and colorectal cancers. This would be a holy grail of cancer treatment if the drug continues to post solid results. The drug is being tested to treat triple negative breast cancer, a tough-to-treat indication with limited treatment options. These cases represent 15% of the 246,660 new cases of breast cancer reported each year resulting in 40,450 deaths per year. In the recent trial the "objective response rate" or ORR was 31% or nearly double the historical rate for the standard treatment of these patients. The company plans to file for an accelerated FDA approval in early 2018. An independent study of this drug by an outside firm estimated it could produce $3 billion in annual sales by 2025.
Obviously, there is no guarantee the drug will be approved or be successful in the real world but the outlook is promising and it is lifting the stock price. Shares broke out to a new 15-year high on Friday and could continue to make new highs as long as the research on this drug and others continues to be positive. Seattle Genetics (SGEN) owns 7.3% of the company and executed warrants to acquire 8.6 million shares on December 5th for $42.4 million. They obviously believe the drug has potential.
Hopefully the potential for a blockbuster drug will insulate us from any market negativity in January.
Update 1/8/18: Royalty Pharma bought $75 million of IMMU shares at $17.15 per share, 15% over the current price. They also paid $175 million for the rights to market Sacituzumab Govitecan (IMMU-132) on a global basis. They will pay a royalty of 4.15% on a step down basis until sales reach $6 billion annually then the rate will be 1.75%. The $250 million in cash will allow IMMU to fund its next phase of growth with expenses covered well into 2020. Shares declined slightly since the stock sale added to the shares outstanding.
Long IMMU shares @ $14.69, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long Feb $16 call @ $1.15, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
TEVA - Teva Pharmaceutical - Company Profile
Mizuho upgraded Teva from neutral to buy with a $23 price target.
Original Trade Description: January 6th.
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes generic medicines and a portfolio of specialty medicines worldwide. It operates through two segments, Generic Medicines and Specialty Medicines. The Generic Medicines segment offers sterile products, hormones, narcotics, high-potency drugs, and cytotoxic substances in various dosage forms, including tablets, capsules, injectables, inhalants, liquids, ointments, and creams. This segment also develops, manufactures, and sells active pharmaceutical ingredients. The Specialty Medicines segment provides branded specialty medicines for use in central nervous system and respiratory indications, as well as the women's health, oncology, and other specialty businesses. Its products in the central nervous system area comprise Copaxone for multiple sclerosis; Azilect for the treatment of Parkinson's disease; and Nuvigil for the treatment of excessive sleepiness associated with narcolepsy and certain other disorders. This segment's products in the respiratory market include ProAir, ProAir Respiclick, QVAR, Duoresp Spiromax, Qnasl, Braltus, Cinqair/Cinqaero, and Aerivio Spiromax for the treatment of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, as well as Treanda/Bendeka, Granix, Trisenox, Lonquex, and Tevagrastim/Ratiograstim products in the oncology market. This segment also offers a portfolio of products in the women's health category, which includes ParaGard, Plan B One-Step, and OTC/Rx, as well as other products. The company has collaboration arrangements with Attenukine, Procter & Gamble Company, and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited was founded in 1901 and is headquartered in Petach Tikva, Israel. Company description from FinViz.com
Expected earnings Feb 1st.
Teva is the largest generic drug manufacturer in the world. Unfortunately, that market place is becoming very competitive and the company has to reinvent itself to return to a profitable growth profile.
Fortunately, the company is taking action. They have been selling off noncore assets to pay down debt. They just installed a new CEO, Kare Schultz, and he took immediate action. On his second day on the job, he restructured the management team and said he would present a major restructuring plan in mid December. In early December the stock jumped to a two-month high after news broke they were considering cutting 10,000 of their 57,000 workers in an effort to save $1.5-$2.0 billion a year.
Teva announced in mid December they were cutting 14,000 workers from their 56,000-person workforce. They expect to reduce costs by $3 billion by the end of 2019, with $1.5 billion in cost reductions in 2018. The company also suspended its dividend for ordinary shares and will eliminate bonuses for 2017. They are planning on closing a "significant number" of R&D facilities, offices and other locations around the world. They are going to consolidate offices in the US from 7 locations to only one campus. Teva incurred a lot of debt when they purchased the Allergan generic pharmaceuticals business for $40 billion last year. That was poorly timed just as generic prices were crashing. The company is also reviewing its asset base in order to sell noncore assets. Apparently, the new CEO, Kare Schultz, is determined to turn the company around sooner rather than later. Shares are bouncing back from a 17-year low in November. Shares were upgraded by Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse after the restructuring news.
Shares fell in early November after the company cut full year guidance for the third time and said they may sell shares to reduce their debt. In early December, they pulled back on the share sale idea saying they have no plans for a secondary offering in the near future.
I believe the worst is over. The reaction to the news over the last four months has been horrendous. Shares had fallen from $32 to $10. Since the new CEO took control, they have rebounded back to $19.
The rebound from the restructuring news lifted Teva back to $19 and just below current resistance. Thursday closed at a 5 month high but Friday saw a slight fade. I expect Teva shares to break through the current resistance and begin to recapture some of their losses.
Update 1/8: Teva announced an agreement with Alder BioPharma in the field of anti-CGRP based therapy. This validated Teva's EU patent #1957106 B1 in relation to anti-calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) antibodies and methods of use. Alder will receive an non-exclusive license to Teva's CGP portfolio and will manufacture and commercialize Eptinezumab globally. Alder will cancel its patent litigation and make a one-time payment of $25 million to Teva. A second $25 million payment will be made on approval of a BLA for that drug. Once the drug is marketed Alder will pay $75 million when sales reach $1 billion and $75 million when sales reach $2 billion annually. They will also pay royalty payments of 5% to 7% to Teva. This was a win for Teva.
Long TEVA shares @ $19.31, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long March $20 call @ $1.32, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
YRCW - YRC Worldwide - Company Profile
No specific news. Rebounding again, hopefully this time will punch through $15.
Original Trade Description: December 9th.
YRC Worldwide Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides various transportation services primarily in North America. Its YRC Freight segment offers various services to transport industrial, commercial, and retail goods; and provides specialized services, including guaranteed expedited services, time-specific deliveries, cross-border services, coast-to-coast air delivery, product returns, temperature-sensitive shipment protection, and government material shipments. It serves manufacturing, wholesale, retail, and government customers. As of December 31, 2016, this segment had a fleet of approximately 7,700 tractors comprising 6,200 owned and 1,500 leased; and 31,000 trailers consisting of 24,900 owned and 6,100 leased. The company's Regional Transportation segment provides regional delivery services, which include next-day local area delivery and second-day services, consolidation/distribution services, protect-from-freezing and hazardous materials handling, truck loading, and other specialized offerings; guaranteed and expedited delivery services that consist of day-definite, hour-definite, and time definite capabilities; interregional delivery services; and cross-border delivery services, as well as operates hollandregional.com, reddawayregional.com, and newpenn.com, which are e-commerce Websites offering online resources to manage transportation activities. This segment had a fleet of approximately 6,600 tractors, including 5,000 owned and 1,600 leased; and 13,500 trailers comprising 10,800 owned and 2,700 leased. The company was formerly known as Yellow Roadway Corporation and changed its name to YRC Worldwide Inc. in January 2006. YRC Worldwide Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Overland Park, Kansas. Company description from FinViz.com.
YRCW reported Q3 earnings of 22 cents that missed estimates for 28 cents. Revenue of $1.25 billion matched estimates. Shipments were impacted by the hurricanes in Texas and Florida. Shares traded sideways on the miss.
Regional shipments increased 4.0% despite the hurricane impact. Revenue per hundredweight ros 3.4% and revenue per shipment rose 3.8%. That was the highest revenue per hundredweight increase in more than 3 years. They are refreshing the fleet to more economic tractors and transitioning 8 terminals to become regional distribution centers. This will add capacity and reduce costs.
Expected earnings Feb 1st.
The entire transportation sector crashed in late October and early November and that knocked 25% of YRCW shares. The rebound started in mid November and shares have recovered all the loss and are close to a breakout to a new 52-week high.
Update 12/11: After the bell, YRC provided an operational update for November. Tonnage per day increased 1.1%, revenue per hundredweight rose 3.7%. Revenue per shipment rose 5.0%. Regional tonnage per day rose 6.0%, revenue per hundredweight rse 0.8% and revenue per shipment rose 4.1%. Overall these were some good numbers.
Long YRCW shares @ $14.20, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long Jan $15 call @ 71 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
This is a short-term call and we will need to be out of it by the end of December. The next available option series was April at double the cost.
BEARISH Play Updates
AOBC - American Outdoor Brands - Company Profile
No specific news. New closing low.
Original Trade Description: December 30th.
American Outdoor Brands Corporation, formerly Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation, is a manufacturer of firearms and a provider of accessory products for the shooting, hunting and outdoor enthusiast. The Company operates through two segments. The Firearms segment manufactures handgun and long gun products sold under the Smith & Wesson, M&P and Thompson/Center Arms brands, as well as providing forging, machining and precision plastic injection molding services. The Outdoor Products & Accessories segment provides shooting, hunting and outdoor accessories, including reloading, gunsmithing, gun cleaning supplies, tree saws, vault accessories, knives, laser sighting systems and tactical lighting products. Brands in Outdoor Products & Accessories include Crimson Trace, Caldwell Shooting Supplies, Wheeler Engineering, Lockdown Vault Accessories, BOG POD and Golden Rod Moisture Control, as well as knives and specialty tools under Schrade, Old Timer, Uncle Henry and Imperial. Company description from FinViz.com.
AOBC is a great company but times have changed. Under the 8-years of Barack Obama as president the firearms sector boomed because Obama never missed a chance to blame firearms for every act of violence rather than the criminal acts of the violent offenders. He had said numerous times he would ban firearms if he could and enacted policies that pressured gun dealers including limiting their access to banking. With a potential new gun control law behind every event, gun sales boomed to all time records. In the last year of his presidency he bragged several times that he had become the best gun salesman ever.
President Trump is pro gun and there are multiple pro gun laws making their way through congress. There is no fear of any gun bans even after the Las Vegas shooting. With no urgency to buy new guns, sales are falling. AOBC said rising inventories were a problem and they are being forced to reduce production.
Earnings March 8th.
Investors looking for promising stocks for 2018 with rising revenue and earnings, will likely avoid AOBC because they have neither. In their Q3 earnings report, revenue declined -36% to $148.4 million and earnings fell -90% from $32.5 million to $3.2 million. With 3 years left in Trump's term, the outlook for rising sales is weak at best.
They guided for 2018 for earnings of 57-67 cents and will include write downs of acquired assets.
Update 1/4/18: Firearms background checks fell -8.4% in 2017, the first year over year decline in 15 years. Checks rose from 8.45 million in 2002 to 27.54 million in 2016. AOBC has to deal with this sharp decline in volume.
Short AOBC shares @ $12.14, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long March $10 put at 35 cents.
No stop loss and we will hold over earnings.
VXX - Volatility Index Futures - ETF Description
Since this is a long-term slow moving ETF position, there will not be daily commentary.
Original Trade Description: September 18th.
The VXX is a short-term volatility ETF based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract, they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETF. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.
As evidence of this flaw, they have now done four 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last five reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16), $12.77 (8/22/17). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.
We know from experience that the VXX always declines. The last two times we shorted this ETF we had a $7.23 and $5.98 gain.
Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETF and forget it. If we do get a prolonged rally into year-end we could see a sharp decline in the VXX over the next 2-3 months. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable I will put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in.
The VXX is hard to short. Shortsqueeze.com says there are 19.9 million shares short out of 26.7 million shares outstanding. The shares are out there and being traded because the volume on Monday was 29.6 million. You have to tell your broker you really want to short it and make them find the shares. Sometimes it takes days or even a week before your broker will find you the shares. Trust me, be persistent and it will be worth the effort.
I had held off after the 1:4 reverse split because the options were expensive and I was expecting volatility in September from the budget battle and debt ceiling hurdle. With those issues pushed out into December, the volatility is dropping like the proverbial rock. Several readers have already emailed me asking when I was going to put this position back in the portfolio.
Short VXX shares @ $40.95, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
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