The indexes closed well off their lows but there were more losers than gainers. The weakness in the last half of February has come to pass and it looks like it could carry over into March. The Russell posted a minor gain of 3 points while the Dow lost 72. The S&P was flat at -1. There is no trend. The 9-week rally may have run its course as post earnings depression is in control.
Stop Loss Updates
Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow.
We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.
Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green.
We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.
Current Position Changes
INFN - Infinera
The long position was stopped at $5.20.
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Full updates on all plays on Wednesday and Saturday. Only closed plays are updated on other days.
BULLISH Play Updates
BOX - Box Inc - Company Profile
Really bad news after the close. The stock closed at a 5-month high but fell to $19 on weak guidance. The company said it was expecting to post an adjusted loss of 5-6 cents for the quarter and 1-3 cents for the year. Analysts were looking for a loss of 1 cent for Q1 and earnings of 3 cents for the year. This will be a major loss at the open on Thursday.
Original Trade Description: Jan 19th.
Box, Inc. provides a cloud content management platform that enables organizations of various sizes to manage and share their enterprise content from anywhere or any device. The company's Software-as-a-Service platform enables users to collaborate on content internally and with external parties, automate content-driven business processes, develop custom applications, and implement data protection, security, and compliance features. Box, Inc. offers its solution in 23 languages. It serves healthcare and life sciences, financial services, legal services, media and entertainment, retail, education, and energy industries, as well as government sector primarily in the United States. The company was formerly known as Box.net, Inc. and changed its name to Box, Inc. in November 2011. Box, Inc. was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California. Company description from FinViz.com.
Earnings February 27th.
Box is a provider of cloud content management services to enterprise customers. Procter & Gamble and GE are two of its largest customers. Over the last several weeks there has been a persistent rumor they will be acquired. Google has been a rumored acquirer but it is more likely Microsoft or even Hewlett Packard could be interested.
Entering a position on acquisition rumors is rarely a good move. More than 90% of the time nothing happens. In this case revenue is growing in excess of 25% for 2018 and they guided for 20%+ for 2019. They also guided for their first quarterly profit in Q4 since they went public in 2015.
Their customer retention rate is close to 100% and they had more than 90,000 customers at the end of Q3. Box has enough scale that it makes sense to be acquired rather than a large company trying to replicate their product and service and spend years stealing market share. Buying Box now would be an instant add on to profits.
Shares broke over three-month resistance on Friday and the next material level is $24.
Long BOX Shares @ $19.74, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Optional: Long March $21 Call @ $1.00, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
EGHT - 8X8 Inc - Company Profile
No specific news. Still fighting resistance at $20.50.
Original Trade Description: Feb 9th.
8x8, Inc. provides enterprise cloud communications and customer engagement solutions for small and mid-size businesses, mid-market, and distributed enterprises worldwide. It offers unified communications, team collaboration, conferencing, contact center, analytics, and other services to various business customers on a software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. The company provides 8x8 Virtual Office, a self-contained and end-to-end solution that delivers high quality voice and unified communications-as-a-service; 8x8 Virtual Contact Center, a multi-channel cloud-based contact center solution; and 8x8 Virtual Office Meetings, a cloud-based video conferencing and collaboration solution that enables secure and continuous collaboration with borderless high definition (HD) video and audio communications from mobile and desktop devices. It also offers 8x8 Sameroom, an interoperability platform, which enables cross-team messaging and collaboration within a large organization and between organizations; and Script8, a communications flow and routing engine that offers a scripting environment for routing communications data for specific workflows, as well as allows end-users to create simple, personalized, and customizable communications experiences, such as communications control, external data source integration, and intelligent routing. The company integrates its services with third-party applications and platforms, including enterprise resource planning, customer relations management, human capital management, and other proprietary application suites. It markets its services to end users through direct sales organization, Website, and channel partners. As of March 31, 2018, the company serves approximately 53,800 business customers. 8x8, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in San Jose, California. Company description from FinViz.com.
8X8 was punished severely for earnings that missed only fractionally. The company reported a loss of 6 cents on revenue of $89.9 million. Analysts were expecting a loss of 6 cents on revenue of $88.6 million. No problems there except that matching on earnings normally produces a decline in the stock.
They lowered guidance for 2019 from $334-$338 million to $334-$335 million. Still not a major decline but the stock was hammered.
Service revenue rose 20% with a 61% increase in customers billing more than $10,000 in monthly recurring charges. Average monthly service revenue per business customer rose to $5,211.
The CEO said, "we are disrupting a $50 billion addressable market that is shifting toward cloud solutions with a preference for a single technology platform."
Shares fell from $19.50 to $16.50 on the earnings. They have recovered to $18.79 and continue to move higher.
Earnings April 30th.
Update 2/13: 8x8 announced the offering of $200 million in convertible senior notes. Over the next 40 days the company will enter into agreements with option counterparties to create "capped calls." This process is an attempt to limit the impact of any future conversion of the notes on the number of shares outstanding.
Long EGHT shares @ $18.88, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Optional: Long May $20 call @ $1.05, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
INFN - Infinera - Company Profile
Infinera reports earnings Thursday after the close. However, we were stopped on an opening dip to $5.20 so we have no earnings risk.
Original Trade Description: Jan 5th.
Infinera Corporation provides optical transport networking solutions, equipment, and software and services worldwide. The company's product portfolio consists of Infinera DTN-X Family of terabit-class transport network platforms, including the XTC Series, XTS Series, and XT Series; Infinera DTN-X XTC series multi-terabit packet optical transport platforms that integrate digital OTN switching and optical WDM transmission; and Infinera DTN-X XT series for terrestrial applications and XTS series for subsea applications. It also provides Infinera XTM Series packet-optical transport platform that enables high-performance metro networks with service-aware, application-specific capabilities; and Infinera Cloud Xpress Family designed to meet the varying needs of ICPs, communication service providers, Internet exchange service providers, enterprises, and other large-scale data center operators. In addition, the company offers Infinera FlexILS open line system platform that connects various Infinera and third-party terminal equipment platforms over long-distance fiber optic cable providing switching, multiplexing, amplification, and management channels. Further, it provides software solutions, including Xceed Software Suite that address long-haul, subsea, and metro networks, as well as a range of support services for all hardware and software products. The company also serves telecommunications service providers, Internet content providers, cable providers, wholesale and enterprise carriers, research and education institutions, enterprise customers, and government entities. It markets and sells its products and related support services primarily through its direct sales force. The company was formerly known as Zepton Networks. Infinera Corporation was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Sunnyvale, California. Company description from FinViz.com.
Earnings Feb 5th.
Infinera is a global supplier of terabyte speed network equipment. They are in nearly every country. Their products handle long haul data transmission even in undersea links.
Shares collapsed back in early November when they reported earnings. The CEO said the company had seen a pause in sales as buyers evaluated the combined company. They had just purchased Coriant. The CEO said revenue in Q4 would increase by 50% because of the acquisition but they would post a bigger loss on acquisition expenses.
For Q3 they lost 4 cents and analysts were expecting a 5-cent loss. The guidance for Q4 was a loss of 26-30 cents because of the acquisition.
Shares fell to $3.50 post earnings. Over the last week they have recovered to $4.25 and appear to be accelerating higher. Resistance is $5.
This is not a fast mover, but all the bad news is now priced into the stock.
Readers have been requesting more low dollar stock recommendations and this would fit that scenario.
Update 1/10: The Australia to Japan undersea cable completed a major upgrade of the 12,700 kilometer cable system using Infinera ICE4 devices allowing multi terabit capacity.
Update 2/13: Infinera was selected to provide a long-distance telecommunication network in Mexico for GTAC on a nationwide basis. The selected Infinera because of its capability to deliver up to 200 gigabits per second and error free transmission of 80 channels of 100 gigabits per channel without regeneration over a 400-kilometer distance.
Closed 2/7: Long INFN shares @ $4.22, exit $4.75, +.53 gain (12%).
Closed 2/27: Long April $5 Call @ 31 cents, exit .50, +.19 gain.
RDUS - Radius Health - Company Profile
The company reports earnings after the close on Thursday and after the hit we saw on BOX, I am recommending we close this position at the open.
Original Trade Description: Feb 2nd.
Radius Health, Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes endocrine therapeutics in the areas of osteoporosis and oncology. The company markets TYMLOS for the treatment of postmenopausal women with osteoporosis. It is also developing abaloparatide transdermal patch, a short-wear-time patch formulation of abaloparatide that is in Phase III clinical trial to treat postmenopausal women with osteoporosis; RAD1901, a selective estrogen receptor down-regulator/degrader, which is in Phase I clinical trial for the treatment of metastatic breast cancer; and RAD140, a non-steroidal selective androgen receptor modulator that is in Phase I clinical trial to treat breast cancer. The company has collaborations and license agreements with 3M; Ipsen Pharma SAS; Eisai Co. Ltd.; Duke University; and Teijin Limited, as well as research and development agreements with Nordic Bioscience Clinical Development VII A/S. Radius Health, Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Waltham, Massachusetts. Company description from FinViz.com.
A week ago, Radius took advantage of the JP Morgan Healthcare Conference to raise guidance for the full year 2018. Sales of their lead drug, Tymlos, surpassed the upper range of $95-$98 million. This is for osteoporosis in postmenopausal women. This is the only anabolic drug in the US market that is increasing its market share. Share rose from 20% at the beginning of 2018 to 27% at the end of the year. In December, market share of new anabolic patients was 40%.
They announced an accelerated late stage clinical pipeline for two drugs with blockbuster potential ($1 billion a year). These are elacestrant (breast cancer) and abaloparatide-patch (osteoporosis in postmenopausal women.)
For the full year 2019 they expect revenue of $155-$175 million and year-end cash of more than $100 million.
Earnings February 28th.
Since the JP Morgan conference three weeks ago, Radius has moved steadily higher. If shares can move over $20 the rally should accelerate.
Optional: Long March $20 call @ $.90, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Previously closed 2/7: Long RDUS shares @ $18.70, exit $17.95, -.75 loss.
XRX - Xerox - Company Profile
Xerox gains have slowed after the EU said they were drawing up tariffs on Caterpillar, Xerox and others in case President Trump put tariffs on European cars. I tightened the stop loss to just under today's lows, just in case.
Original Trade Description: Feb 16th.
Xerox Corporation designs, develops, and sells document management systems and solutions worldwide. It offers managed document services, including managed print services and multi-channel communication services, as well as a range of digital solutions, such as workflow automation services, content management, and digitization services. The company also provides desktop monochrome and color printers, and multifunction printers; copiers, digital printing presses and light production devices, and solutions; graphic communications and commercial printers; inkjet presses; and FreeFlow portfolio of software solutions for the automation and integration of print jobs processing. In addition, it sells paper products, wide-format systems, and global imaging systems network integration solutions. The company sells its products and services directly to its customers through sales force, as well as through independent agents, dealers, value-added resellers, systems integrators, and the Web. Xerox Corporation was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut. Company description from FinViz.com.
Unlike other stocks with post earnings depression the strong guidance has powered XRX higher. Friday's close was a 10-month high.
Earnings April 30th.
Long XRX shares @ $30.47, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Optional: Long July $32 call @ $1.60, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
BEARISH Play Updates
VXXB - Barclays VIX Futures ETN - ETN Description
Choppy market is preventing a decline in the VXXB. We just need to be patient.
Original Trade Description: Nov 17th.
The investment seeks return linked to the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index TR. The ETN offers exposure to futures contracts of specified maturities on the VIX index and not direct exposure to the VIX index or its spot level. The index is designed to provide investors with exposure to one or more maturities of futures contracts on the CBOE Volatility Index. Company description from FinViz.com.
The VXXB is a short-term volatility ETN based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract, they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETN. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.
As evidence of this flaw, the prior VXX ETN had done five 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last five reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16), $12.77 (8/22/17). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.
We know from experience that the VXXB and its predecessor the VXX always decline long term.
Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETN and forget it. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable, I may put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in. We could keep this play in the portfolio on a trading basis permanently.
The VXXB will be hard to short. The shares are out there and being traded because the volume on Thursday was 22.1 million. You have to tell your broker you really want to short it and make them find the shares. Sometimes it takes days or even a week before your broker will find you the shares. Trust me, be persistent and it will be worth the effort.
Short VXXB shares @ $35.33, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.