Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group - DPS - close 37.87 change +1.09 stop 32.49

Target(s): 36.80, 38.80
Key Support Areas: 35.75, 34.75, 32.70
Key Resistance Areas: 36.80, 37.45
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Waiting for trigger

DPS kept on going today and made new 52-week highs again. I am not chasing the stock at these levels but will be interested if the stock pulls back to the $35 area. This is just above its 50-day and 20-day SMA. After several weeks of slowly consolidating lower and sideways DPS broke to the upside and now we must wait until it turns back to retest the broken resistance which should now act as support, along with the aforementioned SMA's. We think DPS will pull back to the $35.00-34.50 zone before moving higher. Therefore we are suggesting a trigger to open positions at $35.00 with a stop loss at $32.49. Please keep your position size small since the market has been so volatile.

Suggested Position: Long DPS stock if it trades near $35.00

Entry on: May xx
Earnings Date: More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on: May 8, 2010

Titanium Metals - TIE - close 17.07 change +0.71 stop 14.70

Target(s): 16.95, 18.00
Key Support Areas: 16.00, 15.50, 15.00
Key Resistance Areas: 16.00, 16.70, 17.25
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Waiting for trigger

TIE had a huge day and is running away from our trigger to enter. I expect TIE to eventually make a trip down to its 50-day SMA and 20-day SMA which are near each other. I would like to move up our trigger slightly to $15.75 which is between the two SMA's. If TIE gets down here it would also create a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart. I'll leave my comments from the new play that was released. TIE reported earnings on May 5th of 9 cents versus about 3 cents estimates. The stock reacted favorably even though the overall market plunged late last week. The stock has been consolidating in a bull flag for the past month and I suggest readers take advantage of any pullback in the stock to the $15.60 area. This is just above the 50-day SMA and the midpoint of the bull flag, which I think TIE will eventually break out of to the upside. This sets up a good risk reward trade: we are risking $1.05 to make $1.20. If triggered we our looking for the stock to trade back up $16.95, which would garner a nice +7.6% gain. Our second more aggressive target is $18.00 which is near highs from May 2008. Note, it may take several days to a week to get filled on this trade but I wanted to list the trade in case there is significant weakness in the coming days.

Suggested Position: Long TIE Stock if it trades down near the $15.75 area

Entry on xx at xx
Earnings Date 8/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
Listed on 5/10/10, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Sina Corporation - SINA - close 35.11 change +1.35 stop $36.80

Target(s): 33.25 (hit), 32.50, 30.50
Key Support Areas: 32.50, 30.50
Key Resistance Areas: 35.30, 36.00, 37.60
Current Gain/Loss: -.5%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, but only as a quick trade

SINA rallied today and closed +4% higher. After being in positive territory yesterday our position is now slightly in the red. My technical comments are mostly the same. The stock remains below broken support near $35.30 and is also below all of its major daily and weekly SMA's. The 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA which is a bearish signal that confirms our outlook for this stock. I expect the overhead resistance and SMA's to hold. Our stop has been moved down to $36.80 to protect capital if SINA somehow manages to continue higher from here. SINA is approaching earnings on May 17th so we plan to be out of the trade on or before this date. I urge readers to book gains or tighten stops as SINA approaches $32.50. Our target is just above the low from Friday.

Current Position: Short SINA stock at $34.95

Option Traders:
Suggested Position: JUNE $35.00 PUT

Entry on May 4,2010 at $34.95
Earnings Date May 17, 2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on May 1, 2010

USG Corp. - USG - close 22.46 change +1.06 stop 23.25

Target(s): 19.25, 18.25
Key Support Areas: 20.75, 20.00, 19.25
Key Resistance Areas: 22.25, 23.00
Current Gain/Loss: -2.55% Time Frame: About 2 weeks

New Positions: Yes

Why We Like It:
USG opened and immediately traded up to the $22 area. We recommended opening positions at a failed rally into the $22 area. At about 10:30 the stock made a double top and quickly reversed. So we are short USG stock at $21.90 in the portfolio. After the weak hands were shaken out the stock reversed at $21.63 and was bought the remainder of the day. When looking at the daily chart USG has rallied into a downtrend line from the April 30th and is approaching resistance. USG has also retraced just about 61.8% of the plunge from last week (see Fibonacci lines on the chart). USG traded up to $22.75 today and the 61.8% retracement is $22.88. I like to use 50% retracements (which is where USG reversed yesterday and my basis for releasing the play last night) and 61.8% retracement levels as potential turning points in stocks after large moves. This is the thesis for shorting this stock. Nothing always works in our set-ups, but these are some of the indicators we look for when entering trades and that have been successful in the past. If it fails we will step aside and look for better opportunities. *NOTE: Please use small position due to the volatility in this stock and to limit risk. I also want to point out that I incorrectly listed purchasing a call option in the new play release last night. It should have been listed as a put option. I apologize for the error and it has been corrected.

Current Position: Short USG stock at $21.90

Option Traders:
Suggested Position: Buy JUNE $20.00 PUT

Annotated chart:

Entry on May 12, 2010
Earnings Date More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million
Listed on May 11, 2010


IMAX Corporation - IMAX - close 19.24 change +0.73 stop 17.15

Target(s): 19.25 (hit), 20.95
Key Support Areas: 18.45, 17.75, 16.95, 50-day SMA
Key Resistance Areas: 19.25, 19.72, 21.30
Current Gain/Loss: +4.05%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

The bounce in IMAX continued again today. IMAX gapped open higher and quickly rallied to $19.72. Our target was hit so we closed the position for a gain of +4.05%. Sellers soon stepped in sending the stock over $1 lower. But it did recover and closed near our target. I urge readers to be careful here with the stock's recent volatility and protect capital. A tighter stop could be placed at $18.45, which is below recent intraday support and today's low. I am leery of this snap back rally so please be careful. Use the support and resistance areas above to guide your exit if you still have positions.

Closed Position: Long IMAX stock at $19.25, entry was at $18.50

Annotated Chart:

Entry on May 5th
Earnings Date More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on May 4, 2010