Editor's Note: Good Evening. I am waiting to release new trades until we know whether or not this support holds on the S&P 500. It doesn't appear to me that it will but we may have to endure a bounce first. If that happens it will give us a better opportunity to initiate short positions at a better price. Tomorrow should be an interesting day. Any bounces could be violent but are also likely to be short lived. Our support on AMTD was broken today and our stop was hit. However, our short position in WHR paid off and the those gains outweighed our losses in AMTD. Three of our four open positions currently have gains and I've adjusted some of the targets and stops to keep them from running away from us. Please email me with any questions.

Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Hanson Natural Corp - HANS - close 39.53 change -0.89 stop 38.65 *NEW*

Target(s): 39.95, 40.50 (hit), 41.25, 42.40, 43.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.50, 41.00, 40.25, 39.30, 38.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.28%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

6/29: HANS held up relatively well until the end of the day. The stock is maintaining its upward trend line from 5/6 and is still above its 20-day and 200-day SMA's. We still have a small gain on this position and if the market bounces HANS should do well. I am going to tighten the stop to just below the 200-day SMA at $38.65. Our first target was hit yesterday and considering today's events I suggest readers consider selling into strength, or at least protecting profits if HANS proceeds higher from here. I've listed a new target of $39.95 which is where HANS struggled to break through today. This is an area to at least tighten stops to see if we can get more our of the stock.

6/28: HANS closed above it 50-day SMA today and is maintaining the upward trend line that started on 5/7. The stock also traded to a new high that hasn't been since 5/18. Our first target of $40.50 was hit today but I think we have a good chance of hitting $41.25 so I am going to leave this open to see if we can get some follow through in the coming days.

6/26: HANS continues to make higher lows and if there is strength in the broader market early this week I believe our targets will be hit. On Friday the stock was increasing in the morning as the market was making now lows. The volume patterns are also bullish as the pullbacks tend to come on lighter volume. This shows me there may be institutions buying in this stock which bodes well for a bullish thesis. I've made some minor adjustments to the targets.

Current Position: Long HANS stock, entry was at $39.42

Options Traders:
Suggested Position: August $40.00 CALLS

Entry on June 23, 2010
Earnings Date 8/5/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on 6/22/10

BEARISH Play Updates

Avon Products - AVP - close 27.07 change -0.71 stop 29.65

Target(s): 26.60, 25.80, 25.25, 24.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.50, 29.00, 28.00, 27.17, 25.75, 25.00
Current Gain/Loss: +2.53%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, but only on bounces

6/29: AVP is back below its 20-day SMA and I think the stock ultimately moves lower, but there could be bounce first. If the decline continues I don't anticipate it lasting too long considering the oversold conditions. As such, I have listed $26.60 as a new target which could be a logical bounce point for the stock. This is near the highs from 5/26 and 6/3. I would be quick to tighten stops or simply take profits at this level if it is hit tomorrow. However, if we bounce higher from here first I think that level becomes less important and we may eventually see more downside.

6/28: AVP found some support at its 20-day SMA which also corresponds to its late May highs. AVP could bounce from here if the market does but I believe it will be short lived. Our stop is high enough to account for volatility and I expect the stock to trade down to $25.80 within the next week or so.

6/26: AVP ran into prior support and its 50-day SMA this past week and is now turning lower. The stock made a lower high and I believe it is due to make a lower low, or at least retest its recent lows near $25.00. If we simply catch a portion of this move we will have a nice profitable trade. Our primary target is $25.25 but I have also listed $25.80 as a target which is an area to consider tightening stops or taking profits. If the selling picks up AVP could go all the way down to the $24.00 area which was a prior support/resistance level from 10/08 and 5/09. Our stop is $29.65 and our time frame is several weeks.

Suggested Position: Short AVP stock, entry was at 27.62

Option Traders: Buy August $27.00 PUTS

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings 7/29/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.2 million
Listed on June 26, 2010

eBay, Inc - EBAY - close 19.69 change -1.02 stop 23.10

Target(s): 19.10, 18.40, 17.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.90, 21.50, 20.43, 20.30, 18.90, 18.39
Current Gain/Loss: +2.86%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

6/29: EBAY traded below our trigger to enter short positions at $20.27 so we are short the stock. Our position is currently up almost +3%. Other than the 100-day SMA, I do not see support for EBAY until $18.90, but the stock should trend with the overall market, or possibly on news. Since conditions are oversold we may experience a bounce in EBAY. I've adjusted our first target to $19.10 which is above the next support level. If EBAY trades down there prior to bouncing I would take profits on this trade. If it bounces first and then goes lower we may be able to get more downside.

6/28: EBAY is hanging on to a key support level in the $20.30 to $20.50 area which I think will break in the coming days. If EBAY breaks this support there is not much below to hold it up until the $18.80 area which is below our first target of $18.82. The stock is below its 20-day and 50-day SMA's, both of which are declining, as well as its 20-week and 50-week SMA's (shown on the weekly chart below). I suggest we open short positions if EBAY trades to $20.27 which would be a break of support. I also suggest we use a trigger to short EBAY if it trades up to $21.30 which is just below a prior support area dating back to November and February lows. Our initial stop is $23.10 which is above the stock's recent highs and the 20-day and 50-day SMA's.

Current Position: Short EBAY stock, entry was at $20.27

Option Traders: Buy August $25.00 PUTS, current ask $1.40

Entry on June 29, 2010
Earnings 7/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.8 million
Listed on June 28, 2010

Grand Canyon Education - LOPE - close 23.68 change -0.40 stop 25.86 *NEW*

Target(s): 22.65, 21.80, 20.80, 20.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 24.25, 23.00, 21.50, 20.00
Current Gain/Loss: -1.53%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 days
new Positions: No

6/29: LOPE remains below its daily SMA's and downtrend lines. However, I am concerned of an ensuing bounce in the market and the price action is not impressing me to remain short this stock. Therefore, I am going to tighten the stops and target and try to close this position. Our new stop is $24.40 which is above today's highs and our new target is $22.65. At the need of the day I suggest readers get defensive with this position and exit if LOPE is showing any weakness in the coming days, and honor your stop if the stock is showing strength. NOTE: This sector is volatile and I suggest small position size to manage risk. This is also a highly contentious sector and is being driven by news. There are three employment reports this week and if any of them are better than expected it could negatively affect the short term direction of education stocks, which will be good for our position. If the reports turn out to be worse than expected LOPE may be positively affected. But I believe there is enough resistance overhead to keep bounces in check.

6/28: LOPE did not act as I suspected today as the stock gained +2.47%. However, LOPE was turned away at its 50-day SMA and closed below our key support level at $24.25. The stock also remains in a downtrend and the stock sold off -2.35% in the last hour of trading so sellers are alive and well. The rally may have had something to do with short covering and speculation about the probes from Washington into the for-profit education sector. Volatility was expected in this position and I don't expect that to change. I've adjusted our stop up to $25.86 which is above the primary downtrend line. Current Position: Short LOPE stock, entry was at 23.33

Option Traders: Buy August $25.00 PUTS, current ask $2.60

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings 8/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 429,000
Listed on June 26, 2010


TD Ameritrade - AMTD - close 15.27 change -1.00 stop 15.68

Target(s): 17.14, 17.90, 18.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 16.40, 17.50, 17.90, 18.40
Current Gain/Loss: -4.51%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

6/29: AMTD was big loser today and broke through the support levels that I thought would hold, stopping us out of the position for a loss. The next levels of support are $15.00 and $14.40. The stock closed more than -2.5% lower than our stop, reiterating why we have to honor stops. AMTD may bounce from here but I would suggest selling into strength if positions are still open. There is intraday resistance at $15.60 and then not much else until $16.15.

6/28: AMTD peeked its head below the long term support level at $16.40. If the stock follows through to the downside tomorrow conservative traders may wan to consider exiting the position. But the stock is oversold and is due for a bounce. I've adjusted the first target to $17.14 which is below AMTD's 20-day SMA and a prior support level. t a minimum this is good place to tighten stops if the stock trades up to this level.

Closed Position: Short AMTD stock at $15.68, entry was at $16.42

Annotated chart:

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings Date 7/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.1 million
Listed on June 26, 2010


Macy's - M - close 17.77 change -1.05 stop 21.70

Target(s): 18.90, 18.10
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.25, 21.25, 20.90, 20.25, 19.40, 18.00
Time Frame: Dropped

6/29: M never gave us our entry and has ran through all of our targets. I can't chase it at these levels so we are dropping the play.

6/28: We are waiting for our trigger to enter short positions at $19.50. If we are patient I think M will trade up to this level. There is a lot of overhead resistance to keep bounces in check and this is good level to try a short position.

6/26: I've adjusted our trigger to enter short positions to $19.50. I'm expecting the market to bounce from here and M should trade up to our trigger in the coming days. I'll leave my comments from the play release. M collapsed Thursday closing -6% lower and near our 2nd target of $18.90. I still believe the stock will trade down to $18.10 but I do not suggest chasing it at these levels. The broader market should bounce from here and I suspect M will as well. But these bounces should be short lived and I suggest we take advantage them. As such, I have adjusted the entry trigger to $19.50 and the suggested option position. M broke down on 6/23 out of a descending triangle but was saved with a rally. The stock is hanging on to a thread and I do not see any reason why the stock will not continue its descent. The broader market may bounce higher but there is plenty of resistance overhead to keep M in check. I suggest we use $19.50 as a trigger to enter short positions. The next level of meaningful support is all the down near $18.00 which are highs from December. I am going to place a wide initial stop at $21.70 to account for volatility and will adjust it once we are in the position.

Suggested Position: Short M stock if it trades up to $19.50

Option Traders: Buy August $20.00 PUTS, current ask $2.00, estimated ask at entry $1.70

Annotated chart:

Entry on June xx
Earnings 8/12/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million
Listed on June 23, 2010

Whirlpool Corp - WHR - close 89.94 change -5.70 stop 105.50

Target(s): 94.10 (hit), 91.50 (hit), 86.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 101.70, 99.00, 97.50, 94.00, 85.25
Current Gain/Loss: +6.15%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

6/29: Our 2nd target of $91.50 was hit today so we are flat WHR for a +58.40% gain. There could be more downside in WHR but I would be cautious of a bounce. If readers still have positions I suggest tightening your stops to protect profits. There is intraday resistance near $92.00 and $94.00.

6/28: WHR traded up to our trigger 0f $97.50 to enter short positions. The stock hit a brick wall and sold off the remainder the day. Our primary target is $91.50 but $94.10 may provide support. This is an area to consider tightening stops and protecting profits. If WHR bounces I believe there is enough overhead resistance to keep things in check, but we may have to exhibit some patience.

Closed Position: Short WHR stock at $91.50, entry was at $97.50

Annotated chart:

Entry on June 28, 2010
Earnings 7/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2 million
Listed on June 23, 2010