Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund - DBA - close 24.54 change -0.08 stop 24.28 *NEW*

Target(s): 24.60 (hit), 24.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 24.70, 24.40, 23.55, 23.40
Current Gain/Loss: +2.68%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: No

7/10: We are hanging in here with DBA. I adjusted the stop down a few cents to $24.28 which is below Thursday's low and the 100-day SMA. This stop guarantees us of a winning position if DBA reverses lower. Our first target of $24.60 was hit on Thursday and our current gain is +2.68%. It appears DBA is consolidating prior to moving higher. We are looking for $24.95.

7/7: We are long DBA as of the open today. The stock printed a bullish engulfing candlestick on its daily chart and closed above its 100-day SMA. The ETF maintained its upward trend line and also made a higher high. DBA is gaining momentum and I am expecting our targets to be hit, possibly this week. In addition, the stock has now closed above and broken two downtrend lines. My only suggestion is to protect profits if DBA continues higher. I'm going to tighten the stop to $23.80 which is below yesterday's low.

7/6: DBA has broken a downtrend line that began on 1/6/10. The ETF has struggled with a secondary downtrend line but I think its only a matter of time before DBA makes another push higher and breaks through it. DBA also appears to be forming a higher low on its daily chart. Today the ETF sold off to its 20-day SMA from above. I am expecting this support hold and for DBA to make a run up towards its 200-day SMA which is currently just over $25.00. Our most aggressive target is $24.95 while our first target is $24.60. We will use a tight stop at $23.25 which below May's lows.

Current Position: Long DBA stock, entry was $23.90

Options Traders:
Suggested Position: August $23.00 CALLS

Annotated 30-minute Chart:

Entry on July 7, 2010
Earnings Date N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 792,000
Listed on 7/6/10

BEARISH Play Updates

Informatica Corporation - INFA - close 25.47 change +0.08 stop 26.10

Target(s): 24.80, 23.82, 23.00, 22.75, 22.15
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.35, 24.60, 23.80, 23.25, 22.60, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: -3.75%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

7/10: INFA has retraced about 50% of its recent decline and finds itself right at its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. I didn't think the stock would get much higher than $25.00 on any bounce but have been proven wrong. There is some congestion overhead to provide resistance and this is a logical place for the stock make a lower high and reverse, but the broader market direction will most likely determine our fate on this position. I have added a target of $24.80 for readers looking for a quick exit and to limit losses on this position. This is just above the 200-day SMA and the high from 7/6. This may provide some support on a pullback and is a good area to tighten stops.

7/7: INFA shot up to $25.00 this morning and stalled while the broader market continued to march higher. The stock still has to contend with its 20-day and 50-day SMA's if the bounce continues. My feeling is we may see an intraday bounce but I also feel it will be sold into so I suggest we be patient and see how things play out this week.

7/6: INFA traded up to its 200-day SMA today and then backed off. It remains below all of its major SMA's which should keep any bounces in check. I'm going to list another target of $23.82 which is near Friday's closing price. If INFA trades down here prior to bouncing I suggest we take profits on this trade, or at least tighten stops to protect against a reversal. Current Position: Short INFA stock, entry was at $24.55

Option Traders: August $25.00 PUT

Annotated 30-minute Chart:

Entry on July 6, 2010
Earnings 7/22/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.72 million
Listed on July 1, 2010

Lululemon Athletica Inc. - LULU - close 38.89 change +0.17 stop 41.30 *NEW*

Target(s): 35.80, 34.55, 33.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.25, 39.75, 37.00, 35.16, 32.75
Time Frame: 1 week

7/10: LULU is getting ever so close to our entry. The stock traded to within 8 cents on Friday and backed off. The bounce over the past few days has been on extremely light volume showing a lack of participation. This is one of the most bloated retail stocks out there trading at a P/E of 38. It is a novelty retailer and sometimes the P/E doesn't matter so I will keep a tight leash on this and use a stop of $41.30 which is just above the 20-day and 50-day SMA's. LULU has not tested them from below since breaking through them in June. I like the short set-up and want to lower the entry trigger to $39.15. I have also adjusted the targets. I'm looking for LULU to make quick trip back down to test its lows and possibly break them.

7/7: LULU rallied +4.24% higher today and is getting closer to our short entry trigger at $39.25. If the stock trades to this level I feel comfortable suggesting a short position as it will be the first time the stock approaches its 50-day SMA since breaking it on 6/25. The 20-day SMA is also overhead, along with a downtrend line which will provide even more resistance. I think patience will pay off for us on this trade.

7/6: LULU came within 15 cents of hitting our trigger to enter short positions today, and then reversed down. The stock has faced a barrage of selling recently and is coming into a prior support/resistance area near our first target of $35.25. If the stock keeps testing this area the support should eventually break. I only wish LULU and the market were not so oversold. I am expecting this stock to bounce, maybe even up to its 50-day SMA which is near $40.00. Considering the conditions I would like to raise our entry back to $39.25 (below the 50-day SMA). If we are patient and get a good short entry it should pay off.

Suggested Position: Short LULU stock if it trades up to $39.25

Option Traders: Buy August $35.00 PUTS if LULU trades to $39.25, current ask $2.05, estimated ask at entry $1.55

Annotated 30-minute Chart:

Entry on July xx
Earnings 9/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.89 million
Listed on July 1, 2010

PowerShares QQQQ Trust - QQQQ - close 44.62 change +0.42 stop 46.90

Target(s): 43.60, 42.55, 41.80, 41.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 46.77, 45.25, 44.46, 43.50, 42.50, 41.00
Current gain/loss: -0.72%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

7/10: QQQQ is bouncing but I expect the selling to resume soon. In light of the choppy trading that I foresee I am going offer a near term target of $43.60 which is $1 lower than current levels. For readers in PUT positions they should be worth about $2.15 (entry was at $1.85) which would be a +16% gain. This target is near the June 8 low and may form an inverse head and shoulders pattern. I suggest being quick to tighten stops at this level to protect profits. QQQQ may bounce up to its 20-day or 50-day SMA just overhead before reversing so I suggest being patient. There was a lot of volume in the August PUT strikes on Friday and large blocks bought on the offer. This is a good sign for a move lower but earnings is the wild card.

7/7: QQQQ had a monster truck rally today but I believe this will be short lived. The ETF is nearing an important resistance level at $44.46 and has all of its SMA's and plenty of congestion overhead to act as resistance. The rectangle on the chart represents a gap that I suppose could get filled so conservative traders may consider waiting to enter at $45.00. I'm just not confidant the gap will get filled. Today was a relief rally and we may get a little more but I think the selling will resume again and QQQQ should easily retest its lows and possibly break them. Let's use a trigger of $44.30 to initiate short positions. Our stop is $46.90 and I do not see QQQQ trading up to this level prior to breaking down again.

Current Position: Short QQQQ stock, entry was at $44.30

Options Traders: August $45.00 PUTS

Annotated chart:

Entry on July xx
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 100 million
Listed on July 7, 2010

Sherwin-Williams - SHW - close 72.23 change -0.39 stop 76.70

Target(s): 69.25, 68.35, 67.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 75.90, 73.50, 71.10, 69.00, 68.00, 66.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.71%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

7/10: We opened short positions in SHW at the open on Friday. The stock proceed to drift lower the entire day. I am expecting the stock to reverse lower from here as it has rallied into resistance and its 20-day SMA from below. Our first target is $69.25.

7/8: SHW broke below a key support level of $73.40 and has now rallied almost back up to that level. This should provide resistance along with the declining 20-day SMA. I expect the stock to at least retest its recent lows which are $3 to $4 lower than current prices, and possibly even the 200-day SMA. The 50-day SMA is also overhead and we will place our stop just above it at $76.70. The stop will be adjusted once we are in the position. I like shorting the stock at current levels but readers could wait to see if SHW rallies up to its 20-day SMA which is 50 to 75 cents higher.

Current Position: Short SHW stock., entry was at $72.75

Options Traders: August $70.00 PUTS

Annotated chart:

Entry on July xx
Earnings 7/22/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.48 million
Listed on July 8, 2010

Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close 25.30 change +0.48 stop 26.75 *NEW*

Target(s): 24.25, 23.70, 22.55, 21.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.50, 26.00, 25.25, 24.80, 24.00, 23.60, 22.50
Current Gain/Loss: -2.22%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with a tight stop

7/10: SBUX has retraced some of its recent decline as the market has bounced. The stock is testing its 100-day SMA from below and the backside of its broken upward trend line for the first time since breaking in late June. The 100-day SMA has been an important reference point for the stock in 2010. We are also near an important support/resistance level of $25.25 so this is a logical place for SBUX to reverse back down. However, the broader market direction will most determine our fate on this position. A tighter stop could be placed at $25.80 but the bounce may go a little further so patience is suggested. I am looking for SBUX to make a lower high and reverse back down to at least retest its lows. I like new positions at these levels.

7/6: SBUX came with 6 cents of our trigger to enter short positions and then proceeded close down -3.04%. I'm expecting SBUX to bounce with the broader market so I suggest being patient and ready to short the stock if it trades to our trigger of $24.75.

7/3: Last week SBUX broke below a trend line that began in October 2009 and collapsed below it 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day SMA's. These SMA's (in particular the 100-day SMA) have been key areas where the stock has bounced during its rally over the past year. And now that the stock is below them it has probably seen its best days, at least for awhile. I would like to use a trigger of $24.75 to enter short positions which is below the stock's 100-day SMA, the underside of the broken trend line, and the recent steep downtrend line, all of which are converging (see oval on chart). The $25.00 area could also be considered an entry point but I chosen $24.75 because it is near Friday's highs which could possibly form a double top on the intraday charts. Our primary target is $22.55 but I have also listed $23.70 as area to consider tightening stops. It is above the 200-day SMA which SBUX has not touched in over a year.

Current Position: Short SBUX stock, entry was at $24.25

Options Traders: August $25.00 PUTS

Annotated 30-minute Chart:

Entry on July xx
Earnings 7/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on July 3, 2010