BULLISH Play Updates

Bally Technologies - BYI - close 33.33 change -1.63 stop 31.84 *NEW*

Target(s): 33.95, 35.70, 36.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.50, 36.75, 35.75, 34.00, 32.50
Current Gain/Loss: -2.83%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: No

7/28: BYI got hammered as a result of IGT's (down -10%) earnings report as mentioned in yesterday's updates. The stock didn't even pause at its $34.00 support level so this has me a little concerned. The stock has now pulled back all the way to its 20-day SMA and tested the backside of the downtrend line that it broke out of on Monday. The stock has support in this area and is a logical place for it turn back higher, but considering today's events it is prudent to stay nimble and adjust. As such, I have added a $33.95 as a target which just below the $34.00 support level. This is a good place to consider tightening stops to protect capital. Exiting positions here would mean a loss but it may be the smart thing to do. I've adjusted the targets above and lowered the stop to $31.84 to account for a gap higher on 7/22. Often times gaps tend to fill and reverse quickly and if BYI is going to do this I don't want to be taken out. Once the stock finds its footing it should trade up towards our targets.

7/27: We are waiting for our trigger to enter long positions at $34.30. One of BYI's peers (IGT) reported earnings after the bell today that was in line with expectations but they missed revenue slightly and narrowed guidance. IGT is getting hit in the after market and this will probably hurt BYI tomorrow. However, BYI trades at a much lower PE ratio than IGT and our entry trigger of $37.30 is near a prior resistance area which should now act as support. I still like the set-up and suggest we take advantage of the weakness should BYI trade down to this level.

Current Position: Long BYI stock, entry was at $34.30

Options Traders: September $35.00 CALL

Entry on July
Earnings 8/12/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.38 million
Listed on July 26, 2010

ProShares UltraShort 20 YR Treasury - TBT - close 36.97 change +0.70 stop 34.25

Target(s): 37.50, 38.00, 39.25, 40.50, 41.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.00, 41,00, 39.70, 38.25, 37.55, 34.65
Current Gain/Loss: +1.26%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

7/28: TBT found resistance right at $37.50 as mentioned in last night's updates and this proved to be a good spot to take a portion of your profits off the table. TBT has intraday support at current levels and all the way down to its 20-day SMA which also corresponds to the backside of the broken downtrend line $36.25. The ETF could pullback down to this area and still be considered bullish. I'm comfortable giving this some room to work and am looking for a better reference point to tighten the stop.

7/27: TBT broke above its most recent downtrend line and closed +1.92% higher on the day. The next level of resistance is $37.50 to $38.00 which is just below its 50-day SMA. TBT will most likely find resistance in this area. Our first target is $37.50 which is not a bad place to consider taking profits or tightening stops. For options traders our current gain is +30.9% and at $37.50 it should be about +42%. Ultimately I expect TBT to trade up to the $39.00 to $41.00 level which is near our more aggressive targets. However, it will not do this in a straight line. So taking some profits off of the table or tightening stops is a good strategy. I plan to officially tighten the stop when there is a better reference point but be aware that there should be a pullback in the $37.50 to $38.00 level.

7/26: TBT was initiated at the open. The ETF is finding some resistance at its secondary downtrend line but it appears it is only a matter of time before this is broken and TBT breaks to the upside. My comments from the play release remain the same.

Current Position: Long TBT stock, entry was at $36.51

Options Traders: September $37.00 CALL

Entry on July 27, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
Listed on July 24, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Crown Holdings - CCK - close 27.37 change -0.50 stop 27.96 *NEW*

Target(s): 27.60(hit), 27.35 (hit), 27.00, 26.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 27.35, 27.00, 26.25, 25.90, 25.50, 25.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.69%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: No

7/28: CCK is moving in the right direction for us as small caps have been under pressure. The stock hit our 2nd target and we now have a small gain. I've moved the stop down to $27.96 which is just above yesterday's highs and the primary intraday downtrend line. If the weakness continues as the week comes to an end CCK may head towards closing the gap higher on 7/22 which is near our final target of $26.80. This may happen fast so I suggest placing an order to exit positions unless you are able to monitor them intraday. Tightening stops near $27.00 is also suggested.

7/27: I'm sticking with the set-up in CCK and expect there to be weakness in the broader market. This should allow us to exit positions at a better. Our target of $27.60 was hit again and CCK printed a lower low and lower high than yesterday's candle. $27.60 remains a valid target and I suggest tightening stops if it gets down there again.

7/26: CCK closed down -1.14% and hit our target of $27.60 this afternoon. I expect there to be a pullback in the broader market and I think we will be able to exit positions at a better price. If this correction comes I suspect it may be fast so please use the above targets as a guide to tighten stops or exit positions. My comments from 7/24 have not changed.

Current Position: Short CCK stock, entry was at $27.56

Options Traders: September $25.00 PUTS

Entry on July 22
Earnings 10/7/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.43 million
Listed on July 21, 2010

Semiconductor HOLDRS Trust - SMH - close 28.08 change -0.45 stop 29.66

Target(s): 27.55, 27.15
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.00, 28.20, 27.40, 27.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.68%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

7/28: Short positions were initiated in SMH this morning and the ETF proceeded to break down and out of the ascending wedge and dark cloud cover mentioned in yesterday's play release. SMH has intraday support at current levels but if it breaks we should hit our first target of $27.55 (raised 5 cents) relatively quick. This is near the 20-day SMA and a good place to tighten stops to protect profits. SMH will probably bounce there and it may happen fast so please protect profits.

7/27: I'm sticking with ETF's for now to filter out some of the earnings noise. SMH finds itself at the top of a trading range between $26.00 and $29.00 for the past three months. Today's candle on the ETF is a dark cloud cover pattern which is considered a reversal signal. The candle opened above yesterday's high and then pierced half of the prior day's candle. This is considered an exhaustion gap and I believe SMH, along with the broader market, will retrace some of the recent gains. SMH has also formed a bearish wedge over the past couple of weeks and it should break to the downside for a price correction, especially considering the overbought conditions. We'll place an initial stop at $29.66 to give this some room and will adjust it once we are in the position.

Current Position: Short SMH stock, entry was at $28.56

Options Traders: September $28.00 PUTS

Entry on July 28, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15 million
Listed on July 27, 2010

SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close 110.83 change -0.72 stop 113.55

Target(s): 110.30, 109.55, 108.60, 107.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 113.20, 111.65, 110.00, 109.50, 108.55
Current Gain/Loss: +1.22%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

7/28: SPY drifted lower the entire day and came within 16 cents of hitting our $110.30 target. I believe SPY is destined to touch its upward trend line from the 7/1 lows which is near our 2nd target of $109.50, however, protecting profits against a reversal is highly suggested. A trip down to this area could happen fast so I suggest placing an order and be ready to take profits if we get there. SPY may also bounce in the $110 area which is the mid-July highs and just below our first target. I'm not quite ready to tighten the stop yet.

7/27: The gap higher in the S&P 500 today allowed us to enter short positions in SPY at a better price. SPY drifted lower most of the day and I am expecting more downside, at least in the near term. I am going to offer a higher first target at $110.30 which is just above the mid-July highs. SPY will probably bounce at this level and it is a good place to protect against reversal. A tighter stop could be placed at $112.55 which is just above today's highs.

7/26: SPY has rallied right into resistance and its 200-day SMA from below. This is a logical place for SPY to turn back lower towards its 50-day SMA. We are playing for a retracement which I think SPY will do prior to moving much higher. The bottom line is that SPY is need of healthy pullback before it can move much higher. I've chosen a stop of $113.55 which is above the June highs and the 100-day SMA.

Current Position: Short SPY stock, entry was at 112.20

Options Traders: September $110.00 PUT

Entry on July 27, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 236 million
Listed on July 26, 2010