Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Bally Technologies - BYI - close 32.35 change -0.98 stop 31.84 *NEW*

Target(s): 33.00, 33.95, 35.70, 36.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.50, 36.75, 35.75, 34.00, 32.50
Current Gain/Loss: -5.69%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: No

7/29: The blood bath has continued in BYI and the stock is approaching our stop which is about 50 cents lower. I am continuing to adjust here and it appears this play will be a loser. $33.00 is an added target which is near an intraday support/resistance area. This is good place to tighten stops to see if we can get more out of the position. The set-up failed so it is prudent to look for the best exit to protect capital, even that is a loss.

7/28: BYI got hammered as a result of IGT's (down -10%) earnings report as mentioned in yesterday's updates. The stock didn't even pause at its $34.00 support level so this has me a little concerned. The stock has now pulled back all the way to its 20-day SMA and tested the backside of the downtrend line that it broke out of on Monday. The stock has support in this area and is a logical place for it turn back higher, but considering today's events it is prudent to stay nimble and adjust. As such, I have added a $33.95 as a target which just below the $34.00 support level. This is a good place to consider tightening stops to protect capital. Exiting positions here would mean a loss but it may be the smart thing to do. I've adjusted the targets above and lowered the stop to $31.84 to account for a gap higher on 7/22. Often times gaps tend to fill and reverse quickly and if BYI is going to do this I don't want to be taken out. Once the stock finds its footing it should trade up towards our targets.

Current Position: Long BYI stock, entry was at $34.30

Options Traders: September $35.00 CALL

Entry on July
Earnings 8/12/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.38 million
Listed on July 26, 2010

ProShares UltraShort 20 YR Treasury - TBT - close 36.95 change -0.02 stop 34.25

Target(s): 37.50 (hit), 38.00, 39.25, 40.50, 41.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.00, 41,00, 39.70, 38.25, 37.55, 34.65
Current Gain/Loss: +1.21%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

7/29: TBT shot right up to its 50-day SMA this morning and then backed off closing nearly unchanged. The $37.50 to $38.00 area is acting as resistance as I have suspected. I remain bullish on TBT and suggest patience as it works its way through these levels. We've also been suggesting taking some profits off the table to book gains and protect capital and today provided another chance. For options traders, call positions could have sold for about $1.75 on the surge higher today which would have represented about +40% gains. Strength in equities will bode well for TBT so if you believe a big sell-off is pending I I suggest protecting profits in this position. $37.50 is still a valid target and I recommend protecting profits if TBT trades up there again. If TBT keeps knocking on the door at this resistance level it should eventually open but there is nothing wrong with booking a gain in these market conditions.

7/28: TBT found resistance right at $37.50 as mentioned in last night's updates and this proved to be a good spot to take a portion of your profits off the table. TBT has intraday support at current levels and all the way down to its 20-day SMA which also corresponds to the backside of the broken downtrend line $36.25. The ETF could pullback down to this area and still be considered bullish. I'm comfortable giving this some room to work and am looking for a better reference point to tighten the stop.

7/27: TBT broke above its most recent downtrend line and closed +1.92% higher on the day. The next level of resistance is $37.50 to $38.00 which is just below its 50-day SMA. TBT will most likely find resistance in this area. Our first target is $37.50 which is not a bad place to consider taking profits or tightening stops. For options traders our current gain is +30.9% and at $37.50 it should be about +42%. Ultimately I expect TBT to trade up to the $39.00 to $41.00 level which is near our more aggressive targets. However, it will not do this in a straight line. So taking some profits off of the table or tightening stops is a good strategy. I plan to officially tighten the stop when there is a better reference point but be aware that there should be a pullback in the $37.50 to $38.00 level.

Current Position: Long TBT stock, entry was at $36.51

Options Traders: September $37.00 CALL

Entry on July 27, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
Listed on July 24, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Crown Holdings - CCK - close 27.54 change +0.17 stop 27.75 *NEW*

Target(s): 27.60(hit), 27.35 (hit), 27.00, 26.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 27.35, 27.00, 26.25, 25.90, 25.50, 25.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.07%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: No

7/25: CCK hit our $27.35 target again and I'm surprised the stock held up so well today considering the weakness. I am tightening the stop to $27.75 to see if we get this thing can close the gap higher on 7/22. All of the targets are still valid and I suggest readers begin to protect profits if CCK moves lowers from here. On the intraday charts CCK continues to make lower lows and lower highs so a move lower is a good possibility.

7/28: CCK is moving in the right direction for us as small caps have been under pressure. The stock hit our 2nd target and we now have a small gain. I've moved the stop down to $27.96 which is just above yesterday's highs and the primary intraday downtrend line. If the weakness continues as the week comes to an end CCK may head towards closing the gap higher on 7/22 which is near our final target of $26.80. This may happen fast so I suggest placing an order to exit positions unless you are able to monitor them intraday. Tightening stops near $27.00 is also suggested.

7/27: I'm sticking with the set-up in CCK and expect there to be weakness in the broader market. This should allow us to exit positions at a better. Our target of $27.60 was hit again and CCK printed a lower low and lower high than yesterday's candle. $27.60 remains a valid target and I suggest tightening stops if it gets down there again.

Current Position: Short CCK stock, entry was at $27.56

Options Traders: September $25.00 PUTS

Entry on July 22
Earnings 10/7/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.43 million
Listed on July 21, 2010


Semiconductor HOLDRS Trust - SMH - close 27.64 change -0.44 stop 29.66

Target(s): 27.55 (hit), 27.15
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 29.00, 28.20, 27.40, 27.00
Final Gain/Loss: +3.54%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Closed

7/29: Per last night's updates we protected profits at $29.55 and are out of SMH for a much needed +42% gain. I suspected this may happen fast and taking profits was the smart thing to do in this fast moving market. I chose $27.55 as the target because it is just above the 20-day and 50-day SMA's. This has proven to be support for the semi's so far. We still may get more pullback but I wouldn't expect much more than a trip to the 200-day SMA unless things get real ugly in the broader market.

7/28: Short positions were initiated in SMH this morning and the ETF proceeded to break down and out of the ascending wedge and dark cloud cover mentioned in yesterday's play release. SMH has intraday support at current levels but if it breaks we should hit our first target of $27.55 (raised 5 cents) relatively quick. This is near the 20-day SMA and a good place to tighten stops to protect profits. SMH will probably bounce there and it may happen fast so please protect profits.

7/27: I'm sticking with ETF's for now to filter out some of the earnings noise. SMH finds itself at the top of a trading range between $26.00 and $29.00 for the past three months. Today's candle on the ETF is a dark cloud cover pattern which is considered a reversal signal. The candle opened above yesterday's high and then pierced half of the prior day's candle. This is considered an exhaustion gap and I believe SMH, along with the broader market, will retrace some of the recent gains. SMH has also formed a bearish wedge over the past couple of weeks and it should break to the downside for a price correction, especially considering the overbought conditions. We'll place an initial stop at $29.66 to give this some room and will adjust it once we are in the position.

Closed Position: Short SMH stock at $27.55, entry was at $28.56

Annotated chart:

Entry on July 28, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 15 million
Listed on July 27, 2010

SPDR S&P 500 ETF - SPY - close 110.29 change -0.54 stop 113.55

Target(s): 110.30 (hit), 109.55 (hit), 108.60, 107.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 113.20, 111.65, 110.00, 109.50, 108.55
Final Gain/Loss: +2.36%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

7/29: SPY made it down to our $109.55 target twice today and then bounced hard. In last night's updates I mentioned this may happen fast and to be ready to take profits if we get there. The model portfolio is flat the position for another much needed +45.5% gain. For readers who may still have positions there is intraday resistance at current levels. Please protect the profits that are left. Two tighter stops I would consider are 1,111.90 and 1,112.40 but these will seriously eat away at current gains.

7/28: SPY drifted lower the entire day and came within 16 cents of hitting our $110.30 target. I believe SPY is destined to touch its upward trend line from the 7/1 lows which is near our 2nd target of $109.50, however, protecting profits against a reversal is highly suggested. A trip down to this area could happen fast so I suggest placing an order and be ready to take profits if we get there. SPY may also bounce in the $110 area which is the mid-July highs and just below our first target. I'm not quite ready to tighten the stop yet.

7/27: The gap higher in the S&P 500 today allowed us to enter short positions in SPY at a better price. SPY drifted lower most of the day and I am expecting more downside, at least in the near term. I am going to offer a higher first target at $110.30 which is just above the mid-July highs. SPY will probably bounce at this level and it is a good place to protect against reversal. A tighter stop could be placed at $112.55 which is just above today's highs.

Closed Position: Short SPY stock at 109.55, entry was at 112.20

Annotated chart:

Entry on July 27, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 236 million
Listed on July 26, 2010