Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Gaylord Entertainment Co. - GET - close 28.32 change -1.11 stop 27.90

Target(s): 29.00, 29.95, 30.80, 31.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 30.00, 29.00, 28.25
Current Gain/Loss: -1.84%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with a very tight stop

8/10: The hotel sector had a bad day and GET lost -3.77%. Our trigger to enter long positions at $28.85 was hit after GET gapped down so we are long the stock in the model portfolio. GET broke down out of the bull flag which was one of the reason for initiating the trade to begin with. This has me concerned but GET did manage to close above the key support level of $28.25 when there was a lot of noise in the market. Buyers stepped in late in the day so it appears our stop is in the right place. Its do or die time now with GET and we need the broader market to move higher to help our cause. There is a good chance we get stopped out and if so, I suggest getting out of the way. I've also offered a lowered target near today's highs at $29.00 which is a good area for readers to consider tightening stops. Trailing stops is probably a good idea.

8/7: GET has formed a high tight bull flag just over $29.00 over the past two weeks which is also above a key pivot level (between $28.25 to $29.00) for the stock dating back to April (see rectangle). I believe the stock is on the verge of breaking out of the bull flag to the upside and it has some room to run. Aggressive traders can consider positions at current levels or on weakness but more conservative traders may want to use $30.20 as a trigger to enter long positions. Officially, we are going to use $28.85 or $30.20 as triggers to enter, whichever occurs first. Our initial stop is $27.90 which is below the increasing 20-day SMA which the stock has not touched since 7/12. If we get filled at the lower trigger of $28.85 our targets are approximately +4%, +7%, and +10% higher from the entry.

Current Position: Long GET stock, entry was at $28.85

Options Traders: September $30.00 CALL

Entry on August 10, 2010
Earnings 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630,000
Listed on August 9, 2010

Target Corp - TGT - close: 52.94 change: -0.41 stop: 49.90

Target(s): 54.70, 55.25, 57.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 51.50, 53.75, 54.75, 55.30
Current Gain/Loss: -0.11%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/10: TGT sold off early, closed its gap higher from yesterday, and then rallied in the afternoon which created its 3rd consecutive bottoming tail candlestick. The stock's chart looks good and there is solid support all the way down to $51.50. But if we break higher I suggest readers be cautious in protecting gains as I believe the broader market is vulnerable. I've added $54.70 as a target which is near the 6/15 swing high where TGT will probably start to see some resistance. I've also updated the key support/resistance areas above.

8/9: We are long TGT in the model portfolio per the weekend play release. I have added $55.25 as a near term target. This is +4% from our entry point and near the stock's June highs. TGT may find some resistance here and its a good place to tighten stops to protect gains.

Current Position: Long TGT stock, entry was at $53.00

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 08/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

Teck Resources Ltd - TCK - close 34.93 change -0.40 stop 32.65

Target(s): 36.00, 36.75, 37.70
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.00, 36.00, 34.75, 34.00, 33.00, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: -1.74%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/10: TCK gapped lower and drifted higher the entire day. The stock bounced perfectly off of its upward trend line that began on 7/1 and remains above its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. My comments from below are still valid.

8/9: TCK rebounded nicely today closing +2% higher. The stock is maintaining its 20-day SMA and upward trend line. I'm looking for TCK to move back up towards its 200-day SMA and possibly its 5/10 highs. I suggest taking profits or tightening stops at these levels. I've adjusted the 2nd target to $36.75.

Current Position: Long TCK stock, entry was at $35.55

Entry on August 5, 2010
Earnings More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on July 31, 2010

Financial SPDR ETF - XLF - close: 14.86 change: +0.08 stop: 14.45

Target(s): 16.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 14.50, 15.00-15.10, 15.40
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger at $15.15

8/9 & 8/10: We are waiting to be triggered on a breakout. Our comments from below have not changed.

8/7: As much as I doubt the rally in stocks the trend in the XLF is growing more bullish. This financial ETF has been consolidating under resistance near $15.00 and its 200-dma for weeks. You can almost see the inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. If the XLF breaks the neckline to this pattern it would forecast a move toward $16.50. I'm willing to let go of my bearish bias if the XLF can breakout above resistance. Use a trigger at $15.15 to open small bullish positions. Our target is $16.50.

Suggested Position: Long XLF stock at $15.15

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date: N/A
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on August 7th, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

SPDR DJIA ETF - DIA - close 106.66 change -0.46 stop 108.75

Target(s): 106.25 (hit), 105.40, 104.75, 103.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 108.00, 107.00, 105.90, 104.75, 104.20, 103.50
Current Gain/Loss: -0.17%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

8/10: DIA keeps getting close to hitting our target but the market keeps getting saved. Today in early trading this position could have been closed for a gain but stocks rallied. I suspect we may have a spike in the markets over the next day or two but I do believe we will get a meaningful correction that could happen at anytime within the next week, and it could happen fast. DIA is forming a bearish rising wedge pattern and if it lets go we should see a $2 or $3 drop relatively quick. This is what we are positioned for and should the drop happen I suggest readers begin to tighten stops as our targets approach to protect capital and against a reversal.

8/9: On Friday DIA came within 6 cents of hitting our 2nd target so I have raised it by 15 cents. Friday's late day rally looked like classic short covering to me but, nonetheless, it is a support level to be aware of for potential exits or an area to tighten stops to protect capital. If DIA breaks Friday's low it should continue lower to our more aggressive targets. Now we await tomorrow's reaction to the FOMC announcement. This most likely means a volatile afternoon session and may present some opportunities to exit positions. It could happen fast just like Friday but this time it might keep going.

Current Position: Short DIA stock, entry was at $106.48

Options Traders: Buy September $106.00 PUTS

Entry on August 3, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14 million
Listed on August 2, 2010

Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 29.89 change: -0.69 stop: 34.05

Target(s): 28.75, 28.25, 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 31.00

8/10: CNW lost -2.26% today and the stock looks very vulnerable to me, but I sure would like to short it at a better price. Let's lower our trigger to enter short positions to $31.00. This was yesterday's highs and could set-up a potential double top play. I'm just not sure if CNW can bounce a dollar to get there. Aggressive traders could consider positions on any strength.

8/9: CNW has a ways to go to reach our trigger to enter short positions. Depending on the reaction to tomorrow's FOMC announcement aggressive traders may consider positions at current levels. A break below $29.90 should get things moving to the downside.

8/7: A number of the transport stocks have been doing very well. As a matter of fact the Dow Jones Transportation index looks poised to breakout higher. Unfortunately for shareholders of CNW the opposite is true. The company reported earnings this past week and missed estimates. The stock gapped down but managed a bounce from support. Odds are good that CNW could fill the gap before rolling over again. The top of the gap at $32.00 should be new resistance. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $31.75. We'll use a stop loss at $34.05. (More conservative traders could always wait for a close under $28.00 before launching positions). Our first target is $25.50.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to 31.75

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

Temple Inland Inc. - TIN - close: 18.98 change: -0.25 stop: 21.25

Target(s): 18.25, 16.00, 14.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 18.00, 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: +2.67%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/10: TIN still looks good short. If the stock breaks today's lows we should easily reach our first target. My comments from below remain the same. 8/8: Short positions were initiated at the open and TIN spent most of the day rolling over. The chart of TIN looks vulnerable and I like the short play. But I also want to caution readers that if the broader market breaks higher TIN could just as easily bounce with it. I've added $19.00 as a support/resistance area and $18.25 as a target. A move to $18.25 is more than 6% away from our short entry.

8/7: After three months of consolidating sideways in a neutral pattern of lower highs and higher lows it looks like the bears finally won. TIN reported earnings in late July and missed estimates. The reaction pushed shares toward support. The weakness on Friday broke that trend line of support. I am suggesting bearish positions now, at current levels. We'll use a stop loss at $21.25. Our first target is $16.00.

Suggested Position: Short TIN stock, entry was at $19.50

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on August 7, 2010