Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Target Corp - TGT - close: 52.01 change: -0.93 stop: 50.80 *NEW*

Target(s): 52.50, 53.45, 54.70, 55.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 51.50, 53.75, 54.75, 55.30
Current Gain/Loss: -1.87%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: No

8/11: TGT and the retail sector held up relatively well today considering the broader market sell off. However, we need to stay nimble and considering the sudden trend change it is prudent to begin looking for an exit, even if it is a loss. TGT's chart is still in an uptrend. The stock is maintaining its upward trend line and is above its 20, 50, and 200 day SMA's. I've tightened the stop to $50.80 to limit losses and I want to caution readers that if the market continues its path downward without pause our stop may get hit. Exiting positions now is an option and should be considered to protect capital. I've added $52.50 and $52.85 as targets that should be considered as areas to tighten stops or exit positions.

8/10: TGT sold off early, closed its gap higher from yesterday, and then rallied in the afternoon which created its 3rd consecutive bottoming tail candlestick. The stock's chart looks good and there is solid support all the way down to $51.50. But if we break higher I suggest readers be cautious in protecting gains as I believe the broader market is vulnerable. I've added $54.70 as a target which is near the 6/15 swing high where TGT will probably start to see some resistance. I've also updated the key support/resistance areas above.

Current Position: Long TGT stock, entry was at $53.00

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 08/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

Teck Resources Ltd - TCK - close 34.93 change -0.40 stop 32.65

Target(s): 33.90, 34.45, 36.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.00, 36.00, 34.75, 34.00, 33.00, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: -7.06%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

8/11: Materials stocks sold off hard today on the bad data out of China and we are most likely going to get stopped out. The upward trend line has been broken and TCK closed below its 50-day SMA. Our long set-up has failed and it is time to look for an exit. If the stock gaps below or near our stop tomorrow I suggest we institute our stop rule in that we will let the first 15 or 30 minutes of trading settle in before doing anything, and place a new stop below the opening range. This will allow us to determine the true strength or weakness in the market and keep us in the trade looking for a better exit. I've adjusted the targets above and if we exit at them unfortunately this trade will be loser.

8/10: TCK gapped lower and drifted higher the entire day. The stock bounced perfectly off of its upward trend line that began on 7/1 and remains above its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. My comments from below are still valid.

8/9: TCK rebounded nicely today closing +2% higher. The stock is maintaining its 20-day SMA and upward trend line. I'm looking for TCK to move back up towards its 200-day SMA and possibly its 5/10 highs. I suggest taking profits or tightening stops at these levels. I've adjusted the 2nd target to $36.75.

Current Position: Long TCK stock, entry was at $35.55

Entry on August 5, 2010
Earnings More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on July 31, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

SPDR DJIA ETF - DIA - close 104.13 change -2.53 stop 104.85 *NEW*

Target(s): 105.40 (hit), 104.75 (hit), 103.65, 103.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 108.00, 107.00, 105.90, 104.75, 104.20, 103.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.21%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

8/11: DIA fell out of the rising wedge pattern and tanked lower today, hitting two targets. We now have a +46% gain which needs to be protected. I've lowered the stop to $104.85 which is above the intraday congestion area from today and the 20-day SMA. This should provide enough resistance to keep any bounces in check. I suspect DIA may head towards its 50-day SMA which is just below $103. We have two more targets: $103.65 which just above the low on 7/30, and $103.05 which is just above the 50-day SMA. These are the areas I suggest taking profits or tightening stops. If we get stopped out our gain should still be +30%.

8/10: DIA keeps getting close to hitting our target but the market keeps getting saved. Today in early trading this position could have been closed for a +10% gain but stocks rallied. I suspect we may have a spike in the markets over the next day or two but I do believe we will get a meaningful correction that could happen at anytime within the next week, and it could happen fast. DIA is forming a bearish rising wedge pattern and if it lets go we should see a $2 or $3 drop relatively quick. This is what we are positioned for and should the drop happen I suggest readers begin to tighten stops as our targets approach to protect capital and against a reversal.

Current Position: Short DIA stock, entry was at $106.48

Options Traders: Buy September $106.00 PUTS

Entry on August 3, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14 million
Listed on August 2, 2010

Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 28.18 change: -1.71 stop: 34.05

Target(s): 28.75, 28.25, 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 29.95

8/11: CNW has long term support right here at $28.00. If it breaks it should head towards our most aggressive target of $25.50. However, I don't think it will get there prior to closing some of the gaps the stock has experienced in the past few days. Let's lower the trigger to $29.95 and see if we get a bounce in the next day or two and I'll continue to adjust with the market. Aggressive traders can still consider this short but it could reverse in an instant so I consider it more of a day trade vehicle with the oversold conditions until we get a bounce.

8/10: CNW lost -2.26% today and the stock looks very vulnerable to me, but I sure would like to short it at a better price. Let's lower our trigger to enter short positions to $31.00. This was yesterday's highs and could set-up a potential double top play. I'm just not sure if CNW can bounce a dollar to get there. Aggressive traders could consider positions on any strength.

8/9: CNW has a ways to go to reach our trigger to enter short positions. Depending on the reaction to tomorrow's FOMC announcement aggressive traders may consider positions at current levels. A break below $29.90 should get things moving to the downside.

8/7: A number of the transport stocks have been doing very well. As a matter of fact the Dow Jones Transportation index looks poised to breakout higher. Unfortunately for shareholders of CNW the opposite is true. The company reported earnings this past week and missed estimates. The stock gapped down but managed a bounce from support. Odds are good that CNW could fill the gap before rolling over again. The top of the gap at $32.00 should be new resistance. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $31.75. We'll use a stop loss at $34.05. (More conservative traders could always wait for a close under $28.00 before launching positions). Our first target is $25.50.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to 29.95

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

Temple Inland Inc. - TIN - close: 18.03 change: -0.95 stop: 21.25

Target(s): 18.25 (hit), 17.80, 16.25, 14.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 18.00, 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: +7.54%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/11: We are up +7.5% in this trade and our first target has been hit. TIN is at a key support area and its flash crash lows are also just below so I've added a target of $17.80. This stock has sold off so far and so fast it is due for a bounce. I would be inclined to take profits at this level and possibly re-enter on a bounce higher.

8/10: TIN still looks good short. If the stock breaks today's lows we should easily reach our first target. My comments from below remain the same.

8/8: Short positions were initiated at the open and TIN spent most of the day rolling over. The chart of TIN looks vulnerable and I like the short play. But I also want to caution readers that if the broader market breaks higher TIN could just as easily bounce with it. I've added $19.00 as a support/resistance area and $18.25 as a target. A move to $18.25 is more than 6% away from our short entry.

Suggested Position: Short TIN stock, entry was at $19.50

Annotated Chart:

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on August 7, 2010


Gaylord Entertainment Co. - GET - close 28.32 change -1.11 stop 27.90

Target(s): 29.00, 29.95, 30.80, 31.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 30.00, 29.00, 28.25
Current Gain/Loss: -4.54%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with a very tight stop

8/11: It wasn't meant to be with GET,, or any long positions for that matter. The stock broke out of its bull flag and the broader market weakness took it down hitting our stop for a loss. Today's gap was lower than our $27.90 stop so the loss is more than I anticipated. If there wasn't a gap and the stock simply hit the stop our loss would have been -3.3% as opposed to -4.5%. This is the risk with swing trades in a volatile market and something we must deal with as traders. in any event, GET is near its late May/early June highs which acted as resistance and may now act as support. But the stock is most likely headed for its 50-day SMA (another -3% from here) and possibly its 200-day SMA. If readers still have positions I would keep a tight leash on the trade.

8/10: The hotel sector had a bad day and GET lost -3.77%. Our trigger to enter long positions at $28.85 was hit after GET gapped down so we are long the stock in the model portfolio. GET broke down out of the bull flag which was one of the reason for initiating the trade to begin with. This has me concerned but GET did manage to close above the key support level of $28.25 when there was a lot of noise in the market. Buyers stepped in late in the day so it appears our stop is in the right place. Its do or die time now with GET and we need the broader market to move higher to help our cause. There is a good chance we get stopped out and if so, I suggest getting out of the way. I've also offered a lowered target near today's highs at $29.00 which is a good area for readers to consider tightening stops. Trailing stops is probably a good idea.

Current Position: Long GET stock, entry was at $28.85

Options Traders: September $30.00 CALL

Entry on August 10, 2010
Earnings 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 630,000
Listed on August 9, 2010