Editor's Note:
Good evening. TIN and DIA were closed today for +8.7% and +3.4% gains respectively. Our long positions are struggling but I am looking for a bounce here so we can control the damage. Feel free to email me with any questions.

Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Newmont Mining Corp - NEM - close 57.75 change +1.71 stop 52.20

Target(s): 59.30, 60.50, 61.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 62.00, 59.50, 58.00, 55.00, 54.30, 52.30
Time Frame: Several weeks

Why We Like It:
8/12: NEM gapped higher this morning and closed +3% on the day. The broader market gapped lower and couldn't get into positive territory. This confirms my thoughts that gold miners and gold are back as a defensive play that should do well in this environment. Unfortunately it doesn't appear we are going to filled at our ideal price but I suggest we take advantage of any weakness in the coming days. On the hourly chart NEM has an upward trend line near the $56.50 level which will be hit on Tuesday into Wednesday. This is also near a prior resistance level from last week and near today's opening print. Let's use a trigger of $56.75 to enter long positions. I think we'll get filled and if we are patient and it should pay off.

8/11: NEM is approaching a long term upward trend line that began with its November 2008 lows to February 2009. The stock has also broken out above a key pivot level in the $55 to $56 area dating back to 2007. NEM has now turned back to test the pivot level and I suggest we take advantage of the weakness. In addition, if the Fed is going to monetize the country's debt then gold and gold miners should do well and act as a defensive play. I looking for NEM to reverse to the $55.05 to $54.40 level. We will use $54.40 as a trigger to enter long positions but aggressive traders may consider $55.05. Our stop will be $52.20 which is below the 200-day SMA and the long term upward trend line. I am looking for NEM to bounce up to possibly retest its YTD highs.

Suggested Position: Long NEM stock if it trades to $54.40

Entry on August xx
Earnings 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
Listed on August 10, 2010

Target Corp - TGT - close: 51.81 change: -0.20 stop: 50.80

Target(s): 52.50, 53.45, 54.70, 55.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 51.50, 53.75, 54.75, 55.30
Current Gain/Loss: -2.25%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, with a tight stop

8/12: TGT bounced off of its upward trend line and closed above its 20, 50, and 200 day SMA's today. The stock recovered nicely and the bullish case remains intact. But considering the broader market trend change that may be happening it is prudent to look for an exit using the above targets as a guide to tighten stops or exit positions.

8/11: TGT and the retail sector held up relatively well today considering the broader market sell off. However, we need to stay nimble and considering the sudden trend change it is prudent to begin looking for an exit, even if it is a loss. TGT's chart is still in an uptrend. The stock is maintaining its upward trend line and is above its 20, 50, and 200 day SMA's. I've tightened the stop to $50.80 to limit losses and I want to caution readers that if the market continues its path downward without pause our stop may get hit. Exiting positions now is an option and should be considered to protect capital. I've added $52.50 and $52.85 as targets that should be considered as areas to tighten stops or exit positions.

8/10: TGT sold off early, closed its gap higher from yesterday, and then rallied in the afternoon which created its 3rd consecutive bottoming tail candlestick. The stock's chart looks good and there is solid support all the way down to $51.50. But if we break higher I suggest readers be cautious in protecting gains as I believe the broader market is vulnerable. I've added $54.70 as a target which is near the 6/15 swing high where TGT will probably start to see some resistance. I've also updated the key support/resistance areas above.

Current Position: Long TGT stock, entry was at $53.00

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 08/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

Teck Resources Ltd - TCK - close 32.60 change -0.44 stop 32.22 *NEW*

Target(s): 33.00, 33.90, 34.85, 35.35
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.00, 36.00, 34.75, 34.00, 33.00, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: -8.30%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

8/12: We are living to fight another day with TCK and damage control has set-in. The stock gapped below our stop so per last night's updates we placed the stop underneath the opening range. TCK never took out the range so we are looking for a better exit. I've adjusted the targets above which should get hit on any bounces in the market. These are the areas readers should consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect against a reversal. Unfortunately, the position will most likely closed for a loss but let's see how far a bounce will take us.

8/11: Materials stocks sold off hard today on the bad data out of China and we are most likely going to get stopped out. The upward trend line has been broken and TCK closed below its 50-day SMA. Our long set-up has failed and it is time to look for an exit. If the stock gaps below or near our stop tomorrow I suggest we institute our stop rule in that we will let the first 15 or 30 minutes of trading settle in before doing anything, and place a new stop below the opening range. This will allow us to determine the true strength or weakness in the market and keep us in the trade looking for a better exit. I've adjusted the targets above and if we exit at them unfortunately this trade will be loser.

8/10: TCK gapped lower and drifted higher the entire day. The stock bounced perfectly off of its upward trend line that began on 7/1 and remains above its 20-day and 50-day SMA's. My comments from below are still valid.

8/9: TCK rebounded nicely today closing +2% higher. The stock is maintaining its 20-day SMA and upward trend line. I'm looking for TCK to move back up towards its 200-day SMA and possibly its 5/10 highs. I suggest taking profits or tightening stops at these levels. I've adjusted the 2nd target to $36.75.

Current Position: Long TCK stock, entry was at $35.55

Entry on August 5, 2010
Earnings More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on July 31, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.90 change: -0.18 stop: 34.05

Target(s): 28.75, 28.25, 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 29.95

8/12: CNW gapped down below the $28.00 support I mentioned yesterday and then rallied right up to it, closing +3% off of its lows. The break of support was probably a head fake so I expect CNW to bounce a little further here. I suggest we be patient and keep our trigger at $29.95 to enter short positions.

8/11: CNW has long term support right here at $28.00. If it breaks it should head towards our most aggressive target of $25.50. However, I don't think it will get there prior to closing some of the gaps the stock has experienced in the past few days. Let's lower the trigger to $29.95 and see if we get a bounce in the next day or two and I'll continue to adjust with the market. Aggressive traders can still consider this short but it could reverse in an instant so I consider it more of a day trade vehicle with the oversold conditions until we get a bounce.

8/10: CNW lost -2.26% today and the stock looks very vulnerable to me, but I sure would like to short it at a better price. Let's lower our trigger to enter short positions to $31.00. This was yesterday's highs and could set-up a potential double top play. I'm just not sure if CNW can bounce a dollar to get there. Aggressive traders could consider positions on any strength.

8/9: CNW has a ways to go to reach our trigger to enter short positions. Depending on the reaction to tomorrow's FOMC announcement aggressive traders may consider positions at current levels. A break below $29.90 should get things moving to the downside.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to 29.95

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010


SPDR DJIA ETF - DIA - close 103.45 change -0.68 stop 104.85

Target(s): 105.40(hit), 104.75(hit), 103.65(hit), 103.05(hit)
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 108.00, 107.00, 105.90, 104.75, 104.20, 103.50
Final Gain/Loss: +3.41%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Closed

8/12: DIA gapped lower to its 50-day SMA which was just below our final target so positions were closed at the open. We have nice gain of +3.63% on the trade. I'll be looking for more short entries on the indexes on strength, perhaps up to their moving averages overhead, or gap fills.

8/11: DIA fell out of the rising wedge pattern and tanked lower today, hitting two targets. We now have a +46% gain on the options which needs to be protected. I've lowered the stop to $104.85 which is above the intraday congestion area from today and the 20-day SMA. This should provide enough resistance to keep any bounces in check. I suspect DIA may head towards its 50-day SMA which is just below $103. We have two more targets: $103.65 which just above the low on 7/30, and $103.05 which is just above the 50-day SMA. These are the areas I suggest taking profits or tightening stops. If we get stopped out our gain on the options should still be +30%.

8/10: DIA keeps getting close to hitting our target but the market keeps getting saved. Today in early trading this position could have been closed for a +10% gain but stocks rallied. I suspect we may have a spike in the markets over the next day or two but I do believe we will get a meaningful correction that could happen at anytime within the next week, and it could happen fast. DIA is forming a bearish rising wedge pattern and if it lets go we should see a $2 or $3 drop relatively quick. This is what we are positioned for and should the drop happen I suggest readers begin to tighten stops as our targets approach to protect capital and against a reversal.

Closed Position: Short DIA stock at 102.85, entry was at $106.48

Options Traders: Buy September $106.00 PUTS

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 3, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 14 million
Listed on August 2, 2010

Temple Inland Inc. - TIN - close: 18.31 change: +0.28 stop: 21.25

Target(s): 18.25 (hit), 17.80 (hit), 16.25, 14.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 18.00, 16.00
Current Gain/Loss: +8.72%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/12: TIN opened below our target of $17.80 which is where I suggested taking profits yesterday. This proved to be the correct call as TIN immediately reversed and closed +4.5% off of its lows. We booked a nice gain of +8.72%, thank you very much Temple Inland. This stock can probably be shorted on any further strength, perhaps up into the $19.00 area. I have an alert set and this play may show up again.

8/11: We are up +7.5% in this trade and our first target has been hit. TIN is at a key support area and its flash crash lows are also just below so I've added a target of $17.80. This stock has sold off so far and so fast it is due for a bounce. I would be inclined to take profits at this level and possibly re-enter on a bounce higher.

8/10: TIN still looks good short. If the stock breaks today's lows we should easily reach our first target. My comments from below remain the same.

8/8: Short positions were initiated at the open and TIN spent most of the day rolling over. The chart of TIN looks vulnerable and I like the short play. But I also want to caution readers that if the broader market breaks higher TIN could just as easily bounce with it. I've added $19.00 as a support/resistance area and $18.25 as a target. A move to $18.25 is more than 6% away from our short entry.

Closed Position: Short TIN stock at $17.80, entry was at $19.50

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on August 7, 2010