Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Intrepid Potash - IPI - close 23.55 change -0.52 stop 22.25

Target(s): 25.35, 26.30, 27.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 27.40, 26.50, 24.25, 22.65
Current Gain/Loss: -0.59%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/14: We caught a break with IPI as it gapped lower on Friday enabling us to get a good fill. The stock traded within yesterday's range so there is not much to report. I'm looking for this stock to bounce this week and suggest tightening stops on the way up to protect profits.

8/12: The agriculture market is heating up, literally. Heat waves and fires are causing a shortage of agriculture commodities and it is causing prices to spike. Farmers want and need to grow more crops and they need fertilizers to do it. So we are back with a play in IPI which was a dropped play a few weeks ago because we did not get triggered. Technically IPI has retraced about 50% of the +35% spike off of its 52 week low that was printed on 7/1. Today the stock bounced hard just above its 50-day SMA, gaining +4% and printing a bullish engulfing candlestick in the process. This appears to be the higher low that will lead to new highs. I suggest we use one of two triggers to enter positions which should happen tomorrow. If IPI trades to $24.42 (above today's high) or on any weakness to $23.90. The stock is up 23 cents in the after hours so we may get filled at the higher price. Regardless, the momentum is building and I think IPI will re-test its recent highs or print new highs. I've offered a near term target for readers looking for a quicker exit but I'm ultimately looking for the stock to head up to $26 to $27.

Suggested Position: Long IPI stock

Options Traders: Buy September $25.00 Calls, current ask $0.95

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on August 13, 2010
Earnings 11/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 937,000
Listed on August 12, 2010

Newmont Mining Corp - NEM - close 57.75 change +1.71 stop 52.20

Target(s): 59.30, 60.50, 61.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 62.00, 59.50, 58.00, 55.00, 54.30, 52.30
Current Gain/Loss: -0.05%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/14: We are in NEM at $56.75 per last night's updates. The stock is consolidating below it 50-day SMA and any broader market strength or strength in gold should catapult NEM up towards out targets.

8/12: NEM gapped higher this morning and closed +3% on the day. The broader market gapped lower and couldn't get into positive territory. This confirms my thoughts that gold miners and gold are back as a defensive play that should do well in this environment. Unfortunately it doesn't appear we are going to filled at our ideal price but I suggest we take advantage of any weakness in the coming days. On the hourly chart NEM has an upward trend line near the $56.50 level which will be hit on Tuesday into Wednesday. This is also near a prior resistance level from last week and near today's opening print. Let's use a trigger of $56.75 to enter long positions. I think we'll get filled and if we are patient and it should pay off.

8/11: NEM is approaching a long term upward trend line that began with its November 2008 lows to February 2009. The stock has also broken out above a key pivot level in the $55 to $56 area dating back to 2007. NEM has now turned back to test the pivot level and I suggest we take advantage of the weakness. In addition, if the Fed is going to monetize the country's debt then gold and gold miners should do well and act as a defensive play. I looking for NEM to reverse to the $55.05 to $54.40 level. We will use $54.40 as a trigger to enter long positions but aggressive traders may consider $55.05. Our stop will be $52.20 which is below the 200-day SMA and the long term upward trend line. I am looking for NEM to bounce up to possibly retest its YTD highs.

Current Position: Long NEM stock, entry was at $56.75

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on August xx
Earnings 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
Listed on August 10, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 26.70 change: -1.20 stop: 34.05

Target(s): 28.75, 28.25, 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 29.80

8/4: The sellers are obviously overwhelming the buyers in CNW and the stock has run away from us, closing -4.30% on Friday. I do not suggest chasing it down here. I am going to leave this play open and see if CNW manages to bounce back up to fill some of these recent gaps. I'm going to lower the trigger to $29.80. If anyone caught it short it has been a good play, but unfortunately our trigger wasn't hit.

8/12: CNW gapped down below the $28.00 support I mentioned yesterday and then rallied right up to it, closing +3% off of its lows. The break of support was probably a head fake so I expect CNW to bounce a little further here. I suggest we be patient and keep our trigger at $29.95 to enter short positions.

8/11: CNW has long term support right here at $28.00. If it breaks it should head towards our most aggressive target of $25.50. However, I don't think it will get there prior to closing some of the gaps the stock has experienced in the past few days. Let's lower the trigger to $29.95 and see if we get a bounce in the next day or two and I'll continue to adjust with the market. Aggressive traders can still consider this short but it could reverse in an instant so I consider it more of a day trade vehicle with the oversold conditions until we get a bounce.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to 29.95

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010


Target Corp - TGT - close: 50.81 change: -1.00 stop: 50.80

Target(s): 52.50, 53.45, 54.70, 55.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 51.50, 53.75, 54.75, 55.30
Current Gain/Loss: -4.15%
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Closed

8/14: Ouch! TGT hit our stop near the close of the trading session on Friday so we have closed the position for a loss. The stock broke its upward trend line and moving averages and appears that it may be headed towards the longer term trend line which is currently near $49.50. In hindsight, I probably adjusted the stop a little too tight. But TGT reports earnings this week so we needed to exit the position regardless, and if breaks down from here we will be glad we did. If readers still have positions I would probably place a new stop at $50.35 and see how far a bounce can take you. But beware earnings are on 8/18 before the market opens (unconfirmed) so holding positions is a gamble. Buying some out of the money puts is probably a good hedge if you plan on holding long positions.

8/12: TGT bounced off of its upward trend line and closed above its 20, 50, and 200 day SMA's today. The stock recovered nicely and the bullish case remains intact. But considering the broader market trend change that may be happening it is prudent to look for an exit using the above targets as a guide to tighten stops or exit positions.

8/11: TGT and the retail sector held up relatively well today considering the broader market sell off. However, we need to stay nimble and considering the sudden trend change it is prudent to begin looking for an exit, even if it is a loss. TGT's chart is still in an uptrend. The stock is maintaining its upward trend line and is above its 20, 50, and 200 day SMA's. I've tightened the stop to $50.80 to limit losses and I want to caution readers that if the market continues its path downward without pause our stop may get hit. Exiting positions now is an option and should be considered to protect capital. I've added $52.50 and $52.85 as targets that should be considered as areas to tighten stops or exit positions.

Current Position: Long TGT stock at $50.80, entry was at $53.00

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on August 9, 2010
Earnings Date 08/18/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.5 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

Teck Resources Ltd - TCK - close 32.16 change -0.44 stop 32.22

Target(s): 33.00, 33.90, 34.85, 35.35
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 37.00, 36.00, 34.75, 34.00, 33.00, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: -9.37%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

8/14: This trade was a complete disaster from the time it was opened and we were taken out to the woodshed. My big mistake was not keeping a tighter leash on the stop which would have limited losses. I like the story in TCK but we caught it at the wrong time and price. Losses are part of trading and we'll move onward to look for better opportunities. TCK should find its footing and head back up to test its moving averages which are good areas to exit or tighten stops to see how far a bounce can take you.

8/12: We are living to fight another day with TCK and damage control has set-in. The stock gapped below our stop so per last night's updates we placed the stop underneath the opening range. TCK never took out the range so we are looking for a better exit. I've adjusted the targets above which should get hit on any bounces in the market. These are the areas readers should consider taking profits or tightening stops to protect against a reversal. Unfortunately, the position will most likely closed for a loss but let's see how far a bounce will take us.

8/11: Materials stocks sold off hard today on the bad data out of China and we are most likely going to get stopped out. The upward trend line has been broken and TCK closed below its 50-day SMA. Our long set-up has failed and it is time to look for an exit. If the stock gaps below or near our stop tomorrow I suggest we institute our stop rule in that we will let the first 15 or 30 minutes of trading settle in before doing anything, and place a new stop below the opening range. This will allow us to determine the true strength or weakness in the market and keep us in the trade looking for a better exit. I've adjusted the targets above and if we exit at them unfortunately this trade will be loser.

Closed Position: Long TCK stock at $32.22, entry was at $35.55

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on August 5, 2010
Earnings More than 2 months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on July 31, 2010