Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Athenahealth, Inc. - ATHN - close 27.81 change -0.53 stop 26.90

Target(s): 28.75 (hit), 29.50, 31.50 (hit), 32.95, 34.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 34.25, 31.75, 30.00, 28.25, 25.75
Current Gain/Loss: -8.07%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

8/26: ATHN hit our lowered target of $28.75 but sold off and gave back all of yesterday's gains. The stock is still above the lows from Tuesday so I am sticking with it here to see if things reverse higher. I want to caution readers that if we get weakness in the broader market tomorrow we could get stopped out.

8/25: We are moving in the right direction with ATHN. Let's see where this bounce takes the stock, however, the broader market is weak so readers may want to consider looking for an exit using the above targets.

8/24: The sell-off in ATHN continued today and we are getting very close to being stopped out. The stock closed below its upward trend line from the 7/22 lows today, while also closing below its 20-day and 100-day SMA's. The 50-day SMA is below our stop and it appears ATHN may visit this level near $26.00. The stock has retraced just about 50% of its gains from the 7/22 low and there is support at current levels, so this is a logical place for ATHN to bounce. However, the broader market is weak so readers may want to consider looking for an exit. $28.75 and 29.50 are intraday resistance levels and should be considered as areas to selling positions or tightening stops to protect capital.

Current Position: Long ATHN stock, entry was at $30.25

Options Traders: Long September $31.00 CALL

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 767,000
Listed on August 14, 2010

The Andersons, Inc - ANDE - close 36.55 change -0.69 stop 34.45

Target(s): 38.90, 40.50, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.50, 40.50, 39.20, 38.00, 35.50
Current Gain/Loss: -1.27%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: AND is bouncing perfectly off of its upward trend line and 30-day SMA and it did again today. My comments from the past few days remain valid.

8/25: ANDE is hanging tough and if it breaks above $37.50 to $38.00 our targets should easily be reached.

8/24: ANDE surged +3.44% higher today on a very weak tape in the broader market. We are just about break-even on this trade but I urge readers to be cautious as ANDE can't buck the broader market trend forever. However, if the market bounces from here ANDE should head towards our first target of $38.90 (lowered 25 cents). I want to raise the stop up to $34.45 which is below the 50-day SMA and well below the recent congestion area and key resistance level of $35.50. This should protect us from a head fake lower and protect against a hard reversal.

Current Position: Long ANDE stock, entry was at $37.02

Options Traders: Buy December $40.00 Calls, current ask $2.10

Entry on August 19, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180,000
Listed on August 18, 2010

Newmont Mining Corp - NEM - close 59.44 change +1.62 stop 56.40

Target(s): 59.30 (hit), 59.85, 60.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 62.00, 59.50, 58.16, 55.00, 54.30, 52.30
Current Gain/Loss: +4.74%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: NEM is back at our first target and it is time to consider taking profits. This is more of a defensive play so I am comfortable leaving this open to see if we can get more out of the position. I want to raise our stop $58.20 which will lock in a gain on the position. NEM is forming a bull flag on its hourly chart and if it breaks higher our final targets could get hit quickly. I've changed the final target to $60.50. Readers who want to try to get more than this out of the position might want to consider $61.90 which is near the highest all time closing price. I'd rather get out ahead of that.

8/25: NEM is heading back up towards our $59.30 target. I suggest not letting this reverse again. Protect profits.

8/24: NEM gapped lower but was immediately bought and closed well off of its lows. This is more of a defensive play that can do well in broader market weakness. I've adjusted the 2nd target and suggest we take profits this time if they are reached. $59.30 was hit last week and still remains a valid target.

Current Position: Long NEM stock, entry was at $56.75

Entry on August 13, 2010
Earnings 11/3/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.7 million
Listed on August 10, 2010

Rackspace Hosting, Inc - RAX - close 19.34 change -0.21 stop 17.95

Target(s): 20.75, 21.30, 23.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 23.50, 21.40, 20.00, 19.00, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: -15%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: RAX printed highs not seen since April and briefly broke out of its ascending triangle. My comments from the play release remain the same. Let's stick with the plan. Readers might want to consider new positions if RAX prints $19.00.

8/25: M&A activity is heating up in the tech sector. Dell and Hewlett-Packard are in a bidding war over a 3Par at a huge 160% premium over its closing price just a couple of weeks ago. Whoever loses the bid will most likely be looking for a similar firm to acquire and there seems to be none better than RAX. Regardless of whether RAX fits the bill for an acquisition they are in the red hot cloud computing industry which is outperforming the broader market. I suggest we take advantage of the momentum and initiate long positions now. Technically, RAX is above all of its moving averages and is forming an ascending triangle. Our stop will be $17.95 and I have three targets with the most aggressive being the YTD highs near $23.00. I envision this trade lasting several weeks or more but if the stock surges we won't hesitate to book profits.

Current Position: Long RAX stock, entry was at $19.65

Options Traders: Long December $21.00 CALL

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.75 million
Listed on August 25, 2010

UltraShort Semiconductor ETF - SSG - close: 19.62 change: +0.65 stop: 18.40

Target(s): 20.40, 21.45, 22.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.00, 20.00, 19.00, 17.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.15%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Only Nimble Traders

NOTE: This is a bearish trade using a long position in an inverse ETF. Since we are bullish on the inverse ETF it is listed as a bullish trade.

8/26: SSG bounced back today gaining +3.4%. If there is market weakness tomorrow it could get ugly and be quick. On the other hand if we bounce it could spur short covering (bad for SSG) and we could get stopped out. Our initial plan was for this trade to last several weeks but the market is oversold and we are approaching support levels. If we go lower it could be quick with a swift reversal and I would rather be selling SSG on strength rather than weakness. I've offered two additional targets for readers looking to book nice gains if there is weakness. Our stop is in the right place.

8/25: Unfortunately, we were triggered at $19.65 as opposed to the pullback to $17.80. We have tight stop so if the Semi's bounce much more there is good chance we will get taken out. I like this ETF on weakness but will suggest stepping aside and possible entering at a lower price if our stop is hit.

8/24: SSG looks on the verge of breaking out and hitting our trigger to buy positions at $19.65. I think pullbacks in SSG can be bought as well so I would like to add a trigger of $17.80 to buy positions which is just above the 200-day SMA and upward trend line from the 7/27 lows. If triggered at $17.80 we'll use a stop loss at $16.45.

8/21: Semiconductor companies that supply materials to the smart phone market have been doing better than their peers that provide chips for the PC market. Yet the chip sector in general has been underperforming. The SOX index broke down under significant support a few days ago and looks ready to begin a new leg lower. I am suggesting we take advantage of this weakness with a bullish position on the SSG.

The plan is to buy the SSG when it breaks out past the July high and hits $19.65. Our multi-week target is $22.00. More nimble traders may want to cross their fingers and hope for a pull back toward $17.25-16.75 as an alternative entry point but if you do buy the dip I would use a relatively tight stop loss. FYI: This is a double, inverse ETF. Expect volatility!

Suggested Position: Long SSG stock/ETF if trades to $19.65 or $17.80

Entry on August XX
Earnings Date: N/A
Average Daily Volume: 178,000
Listed on August 21, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Automatic Data Processing - ADP - close: 38.75 change: -0.18 stop: 41.26

Target(s): 37.25, 36.50, 34.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.00, 39.00, 37.30
Current Gain/Loss: +0.00%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: We are right back to where we started with ADP. The stock continues to look vulnerable and ready to break. If the broader market is weak ADP should follow.

8/25: ADP continues to look vulnerable but we may need to be patient until the broader market finishes this bounce which should be short lived. There is plenty of overhead resistance.

8/24: We were triggered on our short entry in ADP at $38.75. This is the lowest close since 10/8 and the stock looks vulnerable. I've added $37.25 as a first target because it is near a long term upward trend line and prior swing low from 9/3/09.

Current Positions: Short ADP stock, entry was at $38.75

Option Traders: Long November $37.00 puts

Entry on August 24, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
Listed on August 19, 2010

Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close 20.07 change +0.03 stop 22.10

Target(s): 19.70 (hit), 19.10, 18.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.50, 21.60, 20.30, 19.65, 18.75, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: +3.56% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: Natural gas inventories continue to be bearish and the early strength in CHK was sold right into. The stock printed a nasty candlestick, closing at its lows for the day. However, if this candlestick is violated it is a bullish signal so I want to tighten the stop to $21.60. I am still bearish on CHK but want to protect against a hard reversal. The stop is also quite a bit higher and above the recent downtrend line and 20-day SMA. I wouldn't want to be involved if CHK trades this high. I am also adjusting the 2nd and 3rd target slightly higher.

8/25: CHK traded right down to its 52-week low which was the target I suggested taking profits at last night. CHK still looks weak but I believe the stock may bounce here with the broader market. If things turn back down CHK should break these levels.

Current Position: Short CHK stock, entry was at $20.81

Options Traders: Long October $20.00 PUTS

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on August 14, 2010

Con-way Inc. - CNW - close: 27.20 change: +0.02 stop: 31.55

Target(s): 28.25, 26.75, 25.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 28.00, 32.00
Current Gain/Loss: N/A
Time Frame: Several Weeks
New Positions: Yes, trigger 29.20

8/25 & 8/26: My comments remain the same from below. Let's see if CNW gives us an entry on a bounce in the coming days.

8/24: CNW managed to gain +1.33% to close at $27.52. This stock is shortable on strength but we are still waiting on our trigger. The plan is to initiate bearish positions if CNW can bounce to $29.20. The stock is still very oversold with its recent decline from $35.00. A normal 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the declining 20-day SMA are near $29.80. If the stock can manage to bounce to $29.20 I would be short seller.

Suggested Position: Short CNW stock if it trades to $29.20

Entry on August xx
Earnings Date 11/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on August 7, 2010

HNSI, Inc - HNSI - close 26.90 change -0.34 stop 29.11

Target(s): 25.05, 23.50, 22.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 28.90, 27.25, 25.80, 200-SMA, 23.50, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.10%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: The early rally in HSNI was sold into and the stock closed near its lows of the day. I am looking for a breakdown towards its 200-day SMA.

8/25: HSNI hit our target on the late day rally so we are short the stock. I believe this rally will be short lived and the stock should turn back lower in the coming days. My comments from the pay release are below.

8/24: Retailers are weak and HSNI looks like it is headed to test its 200-day SMA and possibly its recent swing lows. The stock has made a great comeback off of its 2009 lows but the selling has picked back up in recent weeks. The stock lost -5.3% today on strong volume and I expect it to continue if the broader market cooperates. I would like to see a retracement of some of today's gains to initiate short positions but if the stock breaks down I also suggest initiating short positions. Let's use triggers on a bounce to $27.20 or a breakdown to $25.69. More nimble traders can initiate positions now. We'll keep a tight stop at $29.11 which is above the downtrend line and Monday's high. If we get filled at $27.20 our first target is nearly 8% lower and above the 200-day SMA. HSNI closed below its 20, 50, and 100 day SMA's today.

Current Position: Short HSNI stock, entry was at $27.20

Options Traders: Long October $25.00 PUTS

Entry on August xx
Earnings: 11/11/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 495,000
Listed on August24, 2010

Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 23.27 change: -0.09 stop: 25.05

Target(s): 22.20, 21.30, 20.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 23.50, 22.00, 21.00, 20.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.13%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: SBUX filled the gap I referred to yesterday and it was immediately sold into. Now we need follow through and weakness in the broader market should get things moving lower in earnest. I've adjusted our first target up 10 cents. This is prior resistance form last fall which should provide support. If we breakdown before bouncing I would be taking profits or tightening stops to protect them at this level.

8/25: The rally in SBUX may have been short covering today and the stock could fill the gap down from yesterday before the selling resumes. There is plenty of overhead resistance to keep bounces in check.

8/24: We were triggered in SBUX at the open this morning and the stock sold off the remainder of the day. I've adjusted our targets and suggest readers begin to tighten stops or take profits as they are reached.

Current Position: Short SBUX stock, entry was at $23.30

Options Traders: Long October $23.00 puts

Entry on August 24, 2010
Earnings Date 11/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.0 million
Listed on August 19, 2010

SPDR Retail ETF - XRT - close 36.52 change -0.46 stop 38.62

Target(s): 36.00, 35.25, 34.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 39.00, 38.00, 37.60, 36.50, 35.80, 35.00
Current Gain/Loss: +2.67%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

8/26: The selling resumed in XRT today and there is plenty of resistance overhead. $36.00 is still a valid target and I would be protecting profits if XRT gets down there again.

8/25: XRT printed a bullish engulfing candlestick today and closed the gap lower from yesterday. In this case I believe the selling will resume. My comments from below remain the same.

8/24: XRT hit our first target of $36.00 this morning and bounced. I see no reason the ETF won't trade down to its July lows which are just below our second target of $35.25. Let's move our stop down to $38.62.

Current Position: Short XRT stock, entry was at $37.52

Options Traders: Long September $36.00 PUTS

Entry on August 17, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12 million
Listed on August 16, 2010


Oceaneering International - OII - close 50.75 change +0.18 stop 47.80 *NEW*

Target(s): 50.75 (hit), 51.75, 53.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 57.50, 54.50, 53.40, 49.00
Final Gain/Loss: +3.15%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

8/26: OII reached our $50.75 target today and we have closed the position for a +3% gain. I listed this as a target on Tuesday and suggested we protect profits at this level. The stock printed a topping tail candlestick off of the 20-day SMA and a downtrend line. If readers are still in positions I would suggest tightening your stop to $47.80 and exiting positions on strength. OII has some potential, but I'm cautious of further declines in the broader market and booking the gain was the smart thing to do.

8/25: OII gained +1.5% today and is heading towards our targets. My comments below remain unchanged.

8/24: OII is hanging tough and is maintaining its upward trend line from the 6/1 lows. Let's stick with the set-up and see if the stock bounces from here. I've added a lower target of $50.75 which will produce a small +3% gain if reached. Readers should consider tightening stops or taking profits as the targets are reached.

Closed Position: Long OII stock at $50.75, entry was at $49.20

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 807,000
Listed on August 14, 2010