Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

The Andersons, Inc - ANDE - close 37.51 change +0.93 stop 34.45

Target(s): 38.95, 39.90, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.50, 40.50, 39.20, 38.00, 35.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.32%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/4: My comments below remain the same. I'm looking for ANDE to breakout higher but there could be some weakness early this week but I do not expect too much.

9/1: ANDE remains in a high tight bull flag. If the broader market strength continues the stock should break higher and head towards our targets. All of my comments below remain the same.

8/31: ANDE closed relatively flat on the day. The stock remains above the key support level in the $35.00 to $35.50 area which is the logical area for a bounce back higher. This area is not a bad place to consider new bullish positions.

8/28: ANDE is hanging tough and maintaining its upward trend line with the 20-day SMA acting as support. I'm looking for the stock to break out higher and move up towards our targets.

Current Position: Long ANDE stock, entry was at $37.02

Options Traders: Buy December $40.00 Calls, current ask $2.10

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 19, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180,000
Listed on August 18, 2010

Coeur d'Alene Mines - CDE - close 17.68 change +0.38 stop 15.90

Target(s): 18.95, 19.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 17.80, 16.70
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Why We Like It:
9/4: We missed our lower trigger to enter long positions in CDE by 17 cents. CDE proceeded to close +4% off of its lows on Friday. The chart looks strong and the story is solid with silver breaking out to new 52-week highs and approaching new all-time highs. Let's move up the lower trigger to $17.10. We may get a pullback early this week to take advantage of it. The breakout trigger at $17.90 also remains.

9/2: Demand for industrial metals such as silver is increasing and prices are rising. CDE has broken out of a longer term downtrend line from its October highs and price is now consolidating above it. The stock is forming a bull flag and is above all of its moving averages. I suggest we buy CDE on a breakout if it trades to $17.90 or on pullback to $16.90 which is just above the stock's 200-day SMA. Our initial stop will be $15.90 but it will be adjusted once we are in the position.

Suggested Position: Long CDE stock if it trades to $17.90 or $17.10

Options Traders: Buy October $18 CALL, current ask $1.25

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on September XX
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on September 1, 2010

Dr. Pepper Snapple Group - DPS - close 38.30 change +0.25 stop 35.93

Target(s): 38.85, 39.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: To Follow
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Why We Like It:
9/4: We missed our trigger to enter long positions by 7 cents on Thursday. DPS has proceeded to gain almost $1 since that low. I expect some weakness early this week which should give us another opportunity to enter long positions. In a strong market DPS should easily retest its 52-week highs. Let's move the trigger up to $37.85 which is Friday's low and just above the 50-day SMA.

9/1: DPS has been a relative strong performer throughout the recent market sell-offs and has also been the subject of takeover chatter in recent months. Technically, the stock has formed rounded bottom over the past month which signals a shift from sellers to buyers. The stock is on the verge of breaking out higher and I suggest readers initiate long positions in the stock on any weakness using $37.30 as a trigger. Our targets are +4% and +7% higher. Our stop is below the recent swing low at $35.93.

Suggested Position: Long DPS stock if it trades to $37.30

Annotated daily chart:

Entry on September XX
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on August 31, 2010

Rackspace Hosting, Inc - RAX - close 20.79 change -0.12 stop 17.95

Target(s): 20.75(hit), 21.30, 23.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 23.50, 21.40, 20.00, 19.00, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: +5.80%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on a pullback

9/4: RAX consolidated gains today and finished relatively flat after selling off early in the session. New positions can be considered on pullbacks. I've added a $21.95 target and I think this will get hit later this week after a possible dip early.

9/2: This marks the second time our first target has been hit. My comments from remain the same. Also, if tomorrow's employment report is bad readers should consider closing positions.

9/1: We are looking good here as RAX is above the key $20.00 support level and the ascending triangle that has been forming since June. Now we need follow through. If RAX spikes back up to our first target protect profits or consider taking a portion of your position off of the table.

Current Position: Long RAX stock, entry was at $19.65

Options Traders: Long December $21.00 CALL

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.75 million
Listed on August 25, 2010

Ultrashort MSCI Europe - EPV - close 18.76 change -0.45 stop 17.78

Target(s): 19.40, 19.90, 20.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.00, 19.40, 20.25, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -0.74%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Aggressive traders only

NOTE: This is an double inverse ETF and a bearish play on European equities. Expect volatility and use small position size to manage risk.

9/4: We got the pullback in EPV and are playing for bounce in the ETF which means European equities need to pullback. I've listed three immediate targets above which are areas readers should use to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. These levels could come fast so be ready or simply place GTC orders to take profits. Our most aggressive target is near the 20-day SMA.

9/1: Wow, EPV gapped nearly -6% lower at the open which was below our stop so this position was not opened, i.e. we would have been simultaneously stopped out. European equities rallied on the heels of economic data just like here in the US. The question remains whether this is a one day event or the start of something bigger. We probably won't know that until Friday's employment numbers but I suspect we may get some follow through to today's rally. EPV looks like it wants to fill the gap higher on 8/11 which would be a pullback to the $18.90 area. If we can get filled at this price I suggest initiating a small long position in EPV (bearish position in European equities) and play for a bounce in the ETF. I've adjusted our targets and stops.

Current Position: Long EPV stock, entry was at $18.90

Annotated chart:

Entry on September, 3, 2010
Earnings N/A
Average Daily Volume: 259,000
Listed on August 31, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Automatic Data Processing - ADP - close: 40.08 change: +0.38 stop: 40.75

Target(s): 39.75, 39.45, 39.20, 38.85 (hit)
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.00, 39.00, 37.30
Current Gain/Loss: -3.43%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/4: ADP opened at its highs and sold off the remainder the day on Friday. Buyers stepped in late but and the stock gained less than 1% while the broader indexes performed much better. Nonetheless, we need to look for an exit in this trade as I have been advocating the past several days (see below). $38.85 was probably the right exit on 8/31 but we need to adjust now. I've listed 3 tight near term targets. I suggest being ready to close positions or tighten stops as they approach.

9/1: ADP double topped with the high on 8/23 before pulling back. My comments from below remain valid in regard to exercising caution with this trade. Our stop is above the 20-day and 50-day SMA so we need this bounce to be short lived if our targets are going to be met.

8/31: ADP is moving slow and I am concerned of a broader market bounce in equities. We have a small gain in this trade and I suggest readers use caution. I've added a target of $38.05 and have lowered the stop to $40.75.

8/28: ADP looks ready to bounce along side the broader market. The stock closed right on a steep downtrend line but I think it's only a matter of time before it's broken. Readers may want to consider using a tighter stop or simply exiting positions. Our official stop is above the 20 and 50-day SMA's but a tighter stop of $40.10 could be used. I've also listed a target near breakeven ($38.85) on the trade. ADP could show some weakness early in the week and this could be used a logical exit point as it is an intraday support level.

Current Positions: Short ADP stock, entry was at $38.75

Option Traders: Long November $37.00 puts

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 24, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
Listed on August 19, 2010


Chesapeake Energy - CHK - close 21.72 change +0.34 stop 21.60

Target(s): 20.60, 20.20, 19.70 (hit)
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.50, 21.60, 20.30, 19.65, 18.75, 18.00
Final Gain/Loss: -3.80% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

9/4: CHK hit our stop on Friday so we are flat for a -3.8% loss. On 8/25 CHK hit our first target for +5% gain and now we are taking a disappointing loss. This market forces traders to be vigilant and taking and protecting profits is paramount.

9/1: After having a +5% gain during the breakdown on 8/25 we now have a -2% loss and are vicariously close to getting stopped out in CHK. The stock closed below the 50-day SMA and the backside of the its recent broken downtrend line. But any further broader market strength is probably going to stop us out. I believe the stop is in the right place and suggest readers step aside if it is hit. I've added two targets just below which are good places to consider closing positions or tightening stops to protect capital.

8/31: CHK has printed two topping tail candlesticks off of the 20-day SMA from below and a downward trend line. This is a bearish signal but we will most likely need more weakness in the market for CHK to move lower.

8/28: My comments from below about CHK violating the prior days candlesticks is not a good sign for this short position. Our stop is $21.60 so we won't get hurt too bad if we are taken out but readers should be aware that Friday's pattern can be considered a reversal pattern. In hindsight, we should have taken the +5% gain we had from the breakdown on 8/25. Nice job to readers that did.

Closed Position: Short CHK stock at $21.60, entry was at $20.81

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 16, 2010
Earnings: 11/2/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on August 14, 2010

Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 25.07 change: +0.41 stop: 25.05

Target(s): 22.70, 22.20, 21.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.00, 23.50, 22.00, 21.00, 20.00
Final Gain/Loss: -7.50%
Time Frame: Several weeks
New Positions: Closed

9/4: SBUX hit our stop on Friday so we are flat the positions for a loss. The stock has rallied +10% in its lows on Tuesday and busted through two downtrend lines like they weren't even there. Its time to step aside as the stock is probably headed up to the $26.00 level.

9/1: Readers may want to consider a tighter stop in the $24.50 area which is above the stock's primary downtrend line and the 200 & 20-day SMA's. However, this stop would be just below the 50-day SMA. The primary downtrend line and 20-day SMA are in the $24.00 area and SBUX has filled a gap down. All of these factors should keep bounces in check but broader market strength will most likely still lift the stock if it continues.

8/31: SBUX shed almost -2% today. Volume was much higher than in recent days when the stock was drifting higher. If there is broader market weakness in the coming days SBUX could quickly trade down to our targets. Otherwise, there is a bunch overhead congestion which should keep bounces in check.

8/28: My best guess is that SBUX has some unhappy shareholders at higher prices which should keep bounces in the stock in check. There is a lot of congestion overhead but we may need to exhibit some patience through a bounce.

Closed Position: Short SBUX stock at $25.05, entry was at $23.30

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 24, 2010
Earnings Date 11/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.0 million
Listed on August 19, 2010