Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

The Andersons, Inc - ANDE - close 36.77 change +0.67 stop 34.45

Target(s): 38.95, 39.90, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 41.50, 40.50, 39.20, 38.00, 35.50
Current Gain/Loss: -0.68%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/11: ANDE gained +1.86% and are still looking for a breakout. My comments from below remain the same.

9/9: ANDE traded in a tight 60 cent range within yesterday's price range. The stock is consolidating just below its 52-week highs and I like the volume patterns. We need a breakout.

9/8: The smack down at $37.50 in ANDE continued today as the stock closed -3.35% lower. ANDE remains above the key $35.50 support level but we are getting whipsawed as the stock is trading in a high tight $2 wide bull flag. Today's price action has me concerned but the set-up remains in tact and readers may want to consider new positions to take advantage of today's weakness.

Current Position: Long ANDE stock, entry was at $37.02

Options Traders: Buy December $40.00 Calls, current ask $2.10

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 19, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 180,000
Listed on August 18, 2010

Brocade Communications - BRCD - close 5.88 change -0.07 stop 4.95

Target(s): 6.00, 6.20, 6.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 6.60, 6.20, 6.00, 5.75, 5.40, 5.00
Current Gain/Loss: +2.26%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/11: BRCD traded down to $5.72 and bounced nicely on Friday. We are long the stock at $5.75. It's too bad we missed our initial trigger by 4 cents at $5.46 but I still like the set-up. I've increased the first target to $6.00.

9/9: My comments below remain the same. Let's be patient and look for a quick dip at $5.75. Trend line support on Monday is near $5.60.

9/8: BRCD came within 6 cents today of reaching our trigger to enter long positions. Patience should payoff and I suggest we leave our trigger at $5.75. I'm looking for BRCD to consolidate some the recent gains and make another leg higher.

9/7: BRCD came with 4 cents of reaching our trigger to enter long positions. The stock turned on a dime and closed +7% off of its lows. I suggest we look for a retracement to $5.75 and use it as our trigger to enter long positions. This is a 50% retracement of today's +5% gains.

9/4: Data center networking and storage is the hot technology sector as of late with M&A activity continuing to gain energy. Companies like Dell, HPQ, and MSFT have cash and want to expand their services. Companies like BRCD are good takeover targets. BRCD has been pummeled since its highs near $10 in late 2009 and now trades at a discounted PE when compared to many of its peers. Technically, the stock has broken through and closed above two primary downtrend trend lines. I suggest readers initiate long positions on any weakness in the stock early this week. Our official trigger will be $5.46 which is also near its recent upward trend line and a prior resistance level. There has also been a huge amount of call buying in the September and October strikes over the past few days. Our stop is $4.95. NOTE: This is a cheap stock so expect volatility. We are looking for a 50 cent to 1 dollar move higher.

Current Position: Long BRCD stock, entry was at $5.75

Options Traders: Long October $6 CALL

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 11/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.7 million
Listed on September 4, 2010

Coeur d'Alene Mines - CDE - close 17.83 change +0.09 stop 15.90

Target(s): 18.40, 18.95, 19.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 20.00, 19.00, 17.80, 16.70
Current Gain/Loss: -0.39%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, preferably on pullbacks

9/10: I've tightened the stop to $16.45 and adjusted the first target down 5 cents. My comments from below remain the same.

9/9: My comments from below remain mostly the same. I am looking for the stock to move up towards its May highs but if the broader market doesn't follow through we may get a pullback first. Readers may want to use a tighter stop in the $16.40 area.

9/8: CDE is consolidating some of its recent gains and I expect pullbacks to get bought. Silver has traded to highs not seen since early 2008 which is good for CDE. Our $18.95 target will give us nearly a +6% gain if reached.

9/7: CDE broke out today so we are long the stock at $17.90. I expect any pullbacks in the stock to be bought and with broader market strength the stock could trade up towards our targets relatively quick.

9/4: We missed our lower trigger to enter long positions in CDE by 17 cents. CDE proceeded to close +4% off of its lows on Friday. The chart looks strong and the story is solid with silver breaking out to new 52-week highs and approaching new all-time highs. Let's move up the lower trigger to $17.10. We may get a pullback early this week to take advantage of it. The breakout trigger at $17.90 also remains.

Current Position: Long CDE stock, entry was at $17.90

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 7, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on September 1, 2010

Northern Oil & Gas - NOG - close 15.11 change -0.26 stop 14.25

Target(s): 16.00, 16.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.25, 16.20, 15.75, 15.00, 14.60
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

9/11: NOG came with 1 penny of our trigger. I see lots of support below with an upward trend line, moving averages and prior support/resistance areas. I anticipate getting filled on Monday. My comments below remain the same.

9/9: NOG came with 5 cents of hitting our trigger to enter long positions. I suggest we be patient and should get triggered tomorrow or Monday on a quick broader market pullback. More nimble traders may want to time an entry in the $14.75 to $14.90 area.

9/8: Oil and oil stocks should do well on the slightest prospects of an economic recovery. NOG is a land based driller with major assets in the Bakken region in North Dakota, which is one of the largest discoveries of proven oil reserves ever found in the United States. NOG is forming a bull flag on its daily chart and looks poised to breakout. The stock is consolidating above all of its major moving averages which should also help to provide support on any pullbacks. I suggest readers use a trigger $15.05 to initiate long positions. Our two targets are +6% and +9% higher. Our stop is below all of the moving averages and the recent upward trend line.

Suggested Position: Long NOG stock if it trades to $15.05

Options Traders: Buy October $15.00 CALL, current ask $1.20

Annotated chart:

Entry on September XX
Earnings 10/25/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 506,000
Listed on September 8, 2010

Power-One, Inc - PWER - close 11.13 change +0.18 stop 9.68

Target(s): 12.50, 11.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 13.00, 11.75, 50-day, 9.50
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

9/11: Well, PWER came within 1 penny of triggering our long entry so I'm going to raise the trigger to $10.80. Either someone doesn't want to let us in long positions or I am good at picking intraday support levels. Maybe both but we should get filled in the next day or two. There is lots of support below that I think will hold (see below comments).

9/8 & 9/9: We are waiting to be triggered on PWER. Our trigger to enter long positions is $10.75. The stock has several upward trend lines, the 20-day SMA, and rising 50-day SMA as support below and I want to give us the best chance at getting filled.

9/7: Take a look at the grey volume bars on the chart below. It is clear PWER is being accumulated with institutional money as the price has risen over the past 18 months. I like PWER's business and believe this stock will continue to get bought if the market cooperates. I suggest readers use a trigger of $10.75 to enter long positions and target a move back towards the stock's recent high. This is above the stock's upward trend line and the 50-day SMA. Our initial stop will be below both of these at $9.68.

Suggested Position: Long PWER stock if it trades to $10.80

Options Traders: Buy October $11.00 CALL, current ask $1.05

Annotated chart:

Entry on September XX
Earnings 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.3 million
Listed on September 7, 2010

Rackspace Hosting, Inc - RAX - close 21.74 change +0.57 stop 21.14 *NEW*

Target(s): 20.75(hit), 21.30 (hit), 21.85, 22.65
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 23.50, 21.40, 20.00, 19.50, 19.00, 18.00
Current Gain/Loss: +10.64%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: No

9/11: RAX broke out of the ascending triangle I mentioned below and gained +3.5% today. The stock has gained more than +10% from our entry and for options traders the calls have gained +60%. Taking at least some profits off of the table is the smart thing to do. It wouldn't surprise me to see RAX pull back to the $21.35 area before a continuation higher if the broader market strength continues this week. Regardless we are going to keep a tight leash on this trade and move the stop all the way up 21.14. I would also watch out for a possible double top with Friday's high at 21.86 so I have lowered the next target 10 cents to 21.85 and the final target is now 22.30. Essentially, we are looking to book gains on this position n the coming days. One of the reasons I released this play was takeover chatter circulating in the sector and around the company. We all saw what happened with 3Par. Hanging on to a small position could pay off but take profits off the table so you are at least playing with the houses money, per se.

9/9: We currently have a +30% gain in RAX. Let's move our stop up to $18.95 which is just below the 200-day SMA and primary upward trend line. The stock is forming an ascending triangle over the past couple of weeks and a breakout, coupled with broader market strength, could catapult RAX to our more aggressive targets. If this happens be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

9/8: RAX double bottomed with yesterday's lows and closed almost +2% higher on the day. We are looking for a continuation of the recent move higher and if the broader market cooperates I'm looking for RAX to hit our 2nd target of $21.30 and possibly $21.95 this week. As these targets approach be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them.

Current Position: Long RAX stock, entry was at $19.65

Options Traders: Long December $21.00 CALL

Annotated chart:

Entry on August 25, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.75 million
Listed on August 25, 2010

Ultrashort MSCI Europe - EPV - close 18.68 change -0.14 stop 17.78

Target(s): 19.40 (hit), 19.75, 20.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.00, 19.40, 20.25, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -1.16%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes, aggressive traders only

NOTE: This is an double inverse ETF and a bearish play on European equities. Expect volatility and use small position size to manage risk.

9/11: EPV is good hedge against our long positions right now. If global equities turn lower our targets should relatively quick. new positions can be considered now.

9/9: Germany's Deutsche Bank announced today they may need to raise money to meet regulatory capital requirements. This caused EPV to recover early losses and may cause some weakness in European equities tomorrow (good for our inverse ETF). Our $19.40 target was hit on Tuesday. I suggest we take profits or tighten stops to protect them as our targets approach again.

9/8: EPV gave back some of the gains from yesterday as European equities recovered from early losses due to a favorable bond auction in Portugal. If there is weakness in Europe tomorrow or Friday our more aggressive targets could get hit fairly quick. $19.40 is also still a valid target and I suggest readers take profits or tighten stops as targets approach.

9/7: EPV gained +4% today due to the weakness in European equities. Our first target has been hit. I've adjusted the next two targets and suggest readers take profits or tighten stops as they approach.

Current Position: Long EPV stock, entry was at $18.90

Annotated chart:

Entry on September, 3, 2010
Earnings N/A
Average Daily Volume: 259,000
Listed on August 31, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Intuit, Inc. - INTU - close 43.47 change -0.51 stop 45.32

Target(s): 42.00, 41.40, 40.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 42.00, 41.35, 50-day SMA
Current Gain/Loss: -0.32% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/11: We got a little unlucky with the gap lower in INTU on Friday but it was expected on the heels of a downgrade. Nonetheless, I'm looking for the stock to continue lower. The broader market will most likely determine how far this goes. Our first two targets are -3% and -4.5% lower from here. The ply write-up is below.

9/9: UBS cut its rating on INTU from neutral to buy this afternoon, which is when the selling in the stock began in earnest. In addition, price targets from other analysts are in the $45 range which INTU printed on Tuesday. The stock also printed all-time highs on Tuesday but is showing signs of an imminent decline, especially if the broader market pulls back. Tuesday's candlestick is a reversal pattern and it was confirmed today with a bearish engulfing candlestick. I suggest readers initiate short positions at current levels and play for a pullback to our targets which are near three support/resistance levels. Our stop will be just over Tuesday's high. Our targets are -4.5% to -8% below current levels. I also think this is a good play to consider options which creates defined risk. For example, buying 4 contracts of the October $42.50 strike for 90 cents (mid point of the current bid/ask spread) will cost you $360.00. Should INTU stock move -$1.50 lower over the next 1 to 2 weeks those options should be worth about $1.40. This would represent a +55% gain (or a $200 return on your $360 at risk). I bring this up due to all of the M&A activity and I would rather see readers protect against a large gap if INTU happens to be a takeover target, although I haven't heard anything to substantiate this. Simply put, the stock looks ready for a pullback. Please email me with any questions.

Current Position: Short INTU stock, entry was at $43.33

Option Traders: Buy October $42.50 PUTS

Annotated chart:

Entry on September, 10, 2010
Earnings: 11/18/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4 million
Listed on September 9, 2010