Editor's Note:
Thursday was a good day for our positions with the exception of CLNE and ATI which are not cooperating. However, we closed MTW for a healthy +12.5% gain and RRC for just shy of a +5% gain. We have a slight bearish lean in the portfolio as I anticipate a healthy market correction around the corner.

Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Clean Energy Fuels - CLNE - close 14.21 change -0.52 stop 13.90

Target(s): 16.15, 16.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.00, 16.20, 14.80
Current Gain/Loss: -6.20%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New positions: Yes, with tight stops

9/30: CLNE has simply not lived up to my expectations since opening the position last week. The stock has not followed through and if the broader market corrects we will likely be stopped out. There is a lot of support in the $14.00 area but the stock did down to $13.48 in May. That's where CLNE could be headed if things do not turn around soon. I have seen the stock buck the trend and we are still alive but readers should exercise caution.

9/29: CLNE bounced today but we need more follow through. I'm looking for a move back up to its recent swing high and possibly 200-day SMA if the market cooperates.

9/28: The sell-off in CLNE the past few days has been disappointing. The stock has a lot of support in the $14.00 area. I think the stop may be a little too tight so I would like to lower it to $13.90 for now to account for a possible spike down.

Current Position: Long CLNE stock, entry was at $15.15

Options Traders: Long November $16.00 CALL

Entry on September 23, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 973,000
Listed on September 13, 2010

Noble Corp - NE - close 33.79 change -1.18 stop 32.85

Target(s): 35.90, 36.80, 38.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 36.95, 38.50, 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: -2.34%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/30: There is good news and bad news about NE today. The bad news is the stock lost the majority of yesterday's +4% rip higher after Capital One Southcoast downgraded the stock to Neutral from Add. The good news is the stock closed nearly +2% off of its lows and remains above its rising 50-day SMA. The stock has support in the $33.00 area and our stop is $32.85. A broader market correction will likely take us out. Readers should use caution.

9/29: Our patience has paid off so far as this position is back in positive territory. The stock surged higher today gaining nearly +4%. NE now sits on an intraday downtrend line but with a bull flag right below it. If the broader goes higher from here our targets should easily be easily. Our stop is in the right place if things reverse.

9/28: NE has tested the backside of its broken primary downtrend line and its 50-day SMA from above, but it has closed below its 20-day SMA the past two days. I like new positions here with a tight stop of $32.85. If we get a pullback in the broader market our stop will likely get hit.

Current Position: Long NE stock, entry was at $34.60

Options Traders: Long October $36.00 CALL

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on September 11, 2010

iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures - VXX - close 17.29 change +0.36 stop 16.23

Target(s): 17.55, 18.45, 19.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.50, 19.75, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -2.32%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New positions: Yes

NOTE: I view this as an aggressive trade so small position size is recommended. Long VXX is a bearish play on equities, however, it is listed as long play because we are long the underlying instrument.

9/30: As the market spiked higher this morning volatility never really budged which was a signal the spike could fail, and it did. The question now is whether or not there will be follow through lower in the coming days. I believe there will be but I also think trading could be choppy which may fake traders out of positions. If we are patient our targets should be reached as the market is need of healthy correction. I suggest readers use further spikes in VXX as opportunities to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. My primary targets are $18.45 and $19.25. Our stop is in place.

9/29: Volatility broke an intraday downtrend line but still need to get above Wednesday's highs, which will come if there is broader market weakness. My comments below remain the same.

9/28: Volatility carried into this morning but reversed lower as the bulls stepped in pushing stocks back toward their highs. I want to add a target of $17.55 which should be considered as a place to exit positions or tighten stops. We have a tight stop which will most likely get hit if the broader market continues higher in the coming days.

Current Position: Long VXX stock, entry was at 17.70

Options Traders: Long October $19.00 CALL

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21 million
Listed on September 13, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Alleghany Technologies - ATI - close 46.45 change +0.10 stop 47.45 *NEW*

Target(s): 45.20, 44.65, 43.75, 43.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 46.25, 43.80, 42.00
Current Gain/Loss: -4.03%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

9/30: As I suspected ATI gapped above our stop so per last nights updates a new stop should have been placed above the opening range. This proved to be the right call as ATI trade lower out of the gate and closed below our stop. We've nearly missed revised targets in recent days and I still suggest readers look for an exit, preferably on weakness. Our new stop has been raised to $47.45 and our first target has been raised to $45.20, which would represent a loss on the trade.

9/29: I have been advocating exiting positions on weakness and there have been opportunities, but ATI has simply stopped short of our revised targets. Our +4% gain last Thursday has now turned into nearly a -4% loss. $46.60 has proven to be resistance the past few days but if there is more broader market strength our stop will likely get hit. There is a chance ATI could open near our stop tomorrow. If this happens I suggest we place the protective stop above the opening 15 or 30 minute range. This allows us to measure the true strength or weakness in the stock and often times keeps us in the trade looking for a better exit.

9/28: It appeared our first target of $44.65 was going to be reached this morning but ATI, and the broader market, reversed on a dime. The stock came within 20 cents of our first target and I have added a $45.00 target to account for the rising 20-day SMA. If strength continues in the coming days our stop will likely get hit.

Suggested Position: Short ATI stock, entry was at $44.65

Entry on September 22, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on September 20, 2010

Stifel Financial Corp - SF - close 46.29 change -0.28 stop 48.60

Target(s): 46.05 (hit), 45.05, 44.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 50.00, 48.00, 45.75, 45.00, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.59%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New positions: Neutral

9/30: SF tried to make run higher today but fell flat on its face. If the broader market corrects our more aggressive targets should be easily be reached. Our stop is above the 9/27 high so if we are wrong our loss will be small.

9/29: SF collapsed -3.5% today and our first target was reached. Let's move the stop down to $48.60. If the broader market corrects SF should head back to test its lows.

9/28: SF bounced off of its 20-day SMA today but remains under a fairly important intraday resistance level between $48.25 and $49.25. Tighter stops could be considered between $48.60 and $49.40. I think SF will print $46.05 prior to any significant move higher as long as the broader market pulls back.

Suggested Position: Short SF stock if it trades to $48.45 or $47.52

Options Traders: Buy November $45.00 PUT, current ask $1.50

Entry on September 23, 2010
Earnings: 11/09/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 250,000
Listed on September 22, 2010

Financial Sector SPDR - XLF - close 14.34 change -0.03 stop 14.75

Target(s): 13.85, 13.55
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 15.00, 14.60, 14.20, 13.70, 13.30
Current Gain/Loss: +0.83%

Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

9/30: XLF spiked higher at the open but tanked the remainder the day, closing at its lows. We are short the ETF at $14.46. Any broader market correction should send XLF below $14.00 fairly quick and we have a tight stop if we are wrong. I've adjusted the targets up 10 cents each. My comments below have not changed.

9/29: The financial services sector continues to trade terrible across all industries, from banks, to lenders, to broker dealers. While the broader market has surged higher in recent weeks, XLF has struggled. Either XLF catches up with the broader market or the broader market corrects sending XLF lower. I think the latter happens which should send XLF to test its recent lows. I suggest readers initiate short positions at current levels and play for a -4% to -6% pullback. We will keep a tight stop on the trade and be out for a small loss if we are wrong.

Current Position: Short XLF stock, entry was at $14.46

Options Traders: Long November $14.00 PUT

Entry on September 30, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 74 million
Listed on September 29, 2010


Manitowoc Co., Inc - MTW - close 12.11 change +1.45 stop 9.65

Target(s): 11.00(hit), 11.25(hit), 11.50(hit)
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.50, 11.25, 11.00, 10.00, 9.70
Final Gain/Loss: +12.52%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Closed

9/30: Wow! MTW spiked +13% higher today on news the company announced plans to refinance a portion of their term loans under its senior secured credit facility with senior unsecured notes to improve the balance and flexibility of its capital structure. This gives the company more flexibility and that is what investors wanted to hear. Regardless, all of our targets were hit today so we are flat the position for healthy +12.52% gain. The stock has gained +18.5% since our entry on Monday. Readers who want to stick with this position I suggest protecting profits as I've seen similar situations eventually give it all back. Don't let that happen. Tighter stops could be considered at $10.95, $11.25, and $11.55.

9/29: MTW continued bouncing higher today as the stock tacked on another +2.6%. Be prepared to take profits or tighten stops to protect them as our targets approach. My comments below have not changed.

9/28: MTW erased yesterday's losses and then some, gaining +3.38% on the day. I am looking for the stock to make a higher high if the broader market continues higher. Our three targets are all below the 200-day SMA.

9/25: MTW has pulled back to its rising 20-day and 50-day SMA's which I think will be a spring board for a move higher up towards its 200-day SMA. I suggest readers initiate long positions at current levels. Our targets range from +6.5% to +12% higher from current levels. Our stop is below both of the aforementioned SMA's and a prior support level from June.

Closed Position: Long MTW stock at $11.50, entry was at $10.22

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 27, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on September 25, 2010

Range Resources Corp - RRC - close 38.13 change -0.62 stop 34.40

Target(s): 39.25 (hit), 40.00, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.00, 40.75, 39.50, 37.38, 34.70
Final Gain/Loss: +4.72%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Closed

9/30: I am inclined to take profits at our first target here as RRC spiked higher again today. There is certainly more upside possible in RRC but I am leery of a broader market correction. Tighter stops can be considered anywhere from $35.95 to $36.95. If the market corrects RRC will most likely head towards its rising 20-day SMA.

9/29: RRC reached our trigger as it broke higher this morning so we are long the stock at $37.48. RRC gained almost +5% on the day and we have already gained +3.39% in the position. There is resistance near current levels so we could get a retracement of some of today's gains. Protecting profits is recommended, especially if RRC continues motoring higher without a retracement. I've adjusted the 2nd and 3rd targets slightly to account for the declining 100-day SMA and a gap fill.

9/28: We are sticking with an energy play in a natural gas driller tonight. RRC surged higher and closed above its 50-day SMA today on heavy volume, while call activity was huge in the October and November strikes. RRC is forming an ascending triangle on its daily chart and I suggest readers play for a breakout. Let's use a trigger of $37.48 to initiate long positions in the stock. This is above the high on 9/10. More nimble traders may want to try to time a pullback to the $36.00 area. If triggered, our first two profit targets are +5% and +8% higher.

Closed Position: Long RRC stock at $39.25, entry was at $37.48

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 29, 2010
Earnings 10/18/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
Listed on September 25, 2010