Current Portfolio:

BULLISH Play Updates

Boyd Gaming - BYD - close 7.69 change -0.05 stop 7.28

Target(s): 8.65, 8.95, 9.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.60, 9.25, 8.75, 8.00, 7.40
Current Gain/Loss: -6.22%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

10/20 & 10/21: BYD is finding support at its 20-day SMA and key long support/resistance level in the $7.40 to $7.60 area. This is a logical place to for the stock to make a higher low and head back to at least retest its recent highs. If it does this we can book a decent in the +5% range. I've added a lower target to reflect this strategy. Launching new bullish positions at these levels with tight stop below makes sense a lot of sense to me.

10/19: BYD looked promising this morning but completely lost it in the afternoon. I suggest we keep our stop in place for now and not panic out of the position. BYD is still above the 20-day and 50-day SMA's and has support near current levels.

10/18: I do not see many changes from James' comments below. BYD experienced a relief rally after the Thursday/Friday sell-off. Broken support near $8.00 was a key level that BYD will have to contend with on bounces. Readers may want to consider exiting positions early or tightening stops to the $7.45 area to protect capital, especially considering the overbought broader market conditions.

Current Position: Long BYD stock, entry was at $8.20

Entry on October 14, 2010
Earnings 10/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on October 9, 2010

Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 37.16 chg: -0.02 stop: 34.75

Target(s): 39.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 35.00, 36.50, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.16%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes

10/21: CBD gapped lower today and traded in volatile $1 range. In the end, the stock managed to post a 2 cent gain. All of the comments below remain valid.

10/20: CBD has made a series of higher lows since the stock slit on Monday. Now we need the stock to follow through higher and a retest of its highs.

10/19: CBD traded right down to our trigger of $36.75 and bounced nicely. The comments below all remain valid.

10/18: We are waiting to be triggered at $36.75 which I expect to happen in the coming days. This is a prior long term resistance area which should now be support. The comments from the play release below remain the same.

10/16: Shares of Brazilian grocery food chain CBD appear to be in breakout mode. The Brazilian economy continues to grow and the surging middle class likes to spend. This has pushed CBD toward all-time highs. Now normally I wouldn't list a stock in the $70s as a PremierInvestor play. However, CBD will see a 2-for-1 split on Monday morning (Oct. 18th). The stock should open around $38.20. I am suggesting we look to buy CBD on a pull back. Broken resistance near $73.50 (post-split will be $36.75) should be new support. Thus, use a trigger at $36.75 to open bullish positions. We'll use a stop loss at $34.75 since the $70 level (post-split: $35) should be additional support.

If triggered our first target is $39.00 (pre-split $78.00). Our second, longer-term target is $42.00. The inverse (bullish version) head-and-shoulders pattern would suggest a bullish target of $88 (post-split would be $44). The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a price target of $101.00 (post-split $50.50).

Current Position: Long CBD stock, entry was at $36.75

Entry on October 19, 2010
Earnings Date 11/10/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 545,000
Listed on October 16th, 2010

Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 50.29 change: -0.05 stop: 44.95

Target(s): 50.00, 52.50,
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 47.50, 50.00, etc.
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below for details

10/21: We are waiting for our trigger at $48.25. I like the set-up and suggest we remain patient. We could get a pullback in the coming days and using the dips as buying opportunities is the right strategy.

10/16: HANS is probably best known for their Monster brand energy drinks. The stock has been a monster in its own right and shares have been a popular momentum trade over the years. Well once again shares of HANS are surging higher. We'd like to hop on board but we don't want to chase it at these levels. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy the stock (or call options) at $48.25 since broken resistance at $48.00 should be new support. I'm suggesting a stop loss at $44.95 but we may want to raise the stop closer to the rising 50-dma (technical support) currently near 46.20.

If triggered at $48.25 our first target is $51.00. Our second target is $52.50. FYI: The point & figure chart is very bullish and is forecasting a long-term target of $78.

Suggested Position: BUY the stock at $48.25

- or -

BUY the November $50.00 calls (on a dip at $48.25).

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010

Itron, Inc - ITRI - close 60.69 change +0.32 stop 57.45

Target(s): 63.00, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 66.00, 64.00, 60.50, 59.00, 57.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.18%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

10/21: The dip to $59.50 in ITRI was bought today but it still looks like it may be headed for its 50-day SMA near $59.00, which is also a key long term support level. This is a good place to launch new bullish positions.

10/20: I don't see many changes to my comments below. Look for a move back up to $63.00 which is when we will begin to tighten stops and look for a possible break out higher. ITRI may want to test its 50-day SMA which is near $59.00 so we may need to exhibit some patience.

10/19: The correction came a little faster than I anticipated but ITRI hit our trigger of $60.25 to enter long positions. I am a little concerned about the strength of today's sell-off and we may need to exhibit some patience in the coming days. Tighter stops could be considered at $58.45. When the selling subsides ITRI should move back to the $63.00 level with ease and I would target incremental $1 moves higher from there, possibly all the way up to $66.00. I would view any further dips as buying opportunities with tighter stops.

Current Position: Long ITRI stock, entry was at $60.25

Entry on October 19, 2010
Earnings 10/27/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 412,000
Listed on October 4, 2010

Jeffries Group, Inc - JEF - close 24.15 change +0.32 stop 22.75

Target(s): 25.10, 25.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.85, 25.25, 24.25, 23.50, 23.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.75%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

10/21: JEF gapped higher at open near our trigger to launch bullish positions so we are long the stock at $23.97. The stock surged higher but closed well off of its highs. I like the price action in JEF and expect further upside if the broader market cooperates. I would view dips as buying opportunities.

10/19: Investment Banks are beginning to trade well, especially those that have little risk exposure to mortgage backed securities like many of the money center banks. JEF should do well in this era of corporate advisory services and M&A activity. JEF could even be a takeover candidate themselves. I like JEF to trade higher as long as the stock breaks out above today's highs. Technically, The volume patterns look good and JEF has closed above short term resistance from the past couple of weeks at $23.50 for two consecutive days. I suggest we enter long positions if the stock trades to $23.91 which is above today's highs. Our stop will be $22.75 and our targets are near the September and August highs, which are +5% and +7.5% from our trigger.

Suggested Position: Long JEF stock if it trades to $23.91
Options Traders: Buy December $24.00 CALL, current ask $1.10

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 1/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on October 19, 2010

Mylan Inc. - MYL - close: 19.17 change: +0.19 stop: 18.45

Target(s): 19.80, 20.45, 21.00, 22.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.50, 19.00, 20.00, 20.50
Current Gain/Loss: -0.42%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Neutral

10/20 & 10/21: MYL is playing moving average ping pong, bouncing back and forth between the 200-day (above) and rising 20-day (below). The stock is hanging tough and looks bullish. Now we need follow through.

10/19: I could not find any follow-up news to my 10/18 comments. MYL is hanging tough and is holding onto its upward trend line that began on 8/31 and its 20-day SMA. I've adjusted the targets slightly.

10/18: MYL got hit hard today on news that a preliminary injunction against GlaxoSmithKline and Apotex pertaining to the generic drug Paxil CR was denied in US District Court of New Jersey. After the initial reaction the selling subsided and MYL bounced after the company said they are appealing the decision. Regardless of the outcome, this is a new development and readers should use caution, especially considering the overbought broader market conditions. Our stop is in the right place if MYL breaks lower as this will signal a break in trend.

10/16: (James) MYL is a short squeeze candidate. Bigger picture the generic drug makers are facing a potential boom for the next few years as more brand name drugs lose their patent protection. On a short-term basis MYL just broke out over heavy resistance at $19.00 and its 200-dma following news the FDA has approved to generic versions of Merck's Hyzaar and Cozaar blood pressure drugs. Now don't get too excited here since TEVA has already begun selling generic versions of these drugs months ago but it does mean MYL can try and grab its slice of the pie. Technically MYL is seeing a bullish breakout and could see a short squeeze. The most recent data available listed short interest at almost 29% of the 260 million-share float.

I do consider this an aggressive trade so keep your positions somewhat smaller. Buy the stock now (or the calls) and target a move to $20.00, $21 and beyond. FYI: The P&F chart is forecasting at $33 target.

Current Position: Long MYL stock, entry was at $19.25
Options Traders: Long November $20.00 calls

Entry on October 18, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010

PerkinElmer, Inc - PKI - close 23.25 change +0.15 stop 22.05

Target(s): 23.60, 24.25, 24.85
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.40, 24.40, 23.30, 22.50, 22.15
Current Gain/Loss: +0.65%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

10/21: PKI came with 6 cents of our first target. If the broader market holds up we should have no issues reaching our targets. Our stop is below the 200-day SMA and two support levels.

10/20: We are right back to where we started with PKI and are breakeven on the trade as the stock rebounded nicely today. My comments below remain valid.

10/19: Our +2% gain in PKI has turned into a loss with today's -3.4% decline. PKI has broken through its upward trend line from the July lows and its 20-day SMA, so now we have to turn to support levels. The stock has support at $22.50 and the rising 50-day and 200-day SMA's at $22.30 and $22.13. I suggest we protect the trade here and lower our stop $22.05 as PKI may be headed to test one of the SMA's just below. If support is not found at one of the three aforementioned levels the new stop still keeps losses relatively small while giving the trade room to work. Conservative traders may want to consider exiting positions now.

10/18: PKI regained all of Friday's losses and closed at new multi-month closing highs that haven't been seen since early May. However, the broader market is overbought so readers should use caution. Tighter stops in the $22.75 area could be considered to limit downside risk. James' comments below remain valid.

Current Position: Long PKI stock, entry was at $23.10

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on October 11, 2010

TJX Companies - TJX - close 44.86 change -0.10 stop 43.35

Target(s): 46.95, 48.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 48.50, 47.00, 45.40, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see entry point below

Comments :
10/21: $45.40 has acted like a brick wall in TJX since late September. If the stock breaks above the bullish high and tight ascending triangle it should move higher quickly. We are playing the breakout with a trigger of $45.52.

10/19: I suggest we play this conservative and keep the set-up in place with a breakout trigger of $45.52. A dip towards $43.75 would catch my eye as another possible bullish entry point.

10/18: TJX has been consolidating above its rising 20-day SMA for the past couple of weeks and is forming an ascending triangle along the way. Resistance is $45.40 and I suggest readers use a breakout to enter long positions. Let's use a trigger of $45.52 and target a move back towards the stock's 52-week highs. Our targets are $46.95 and $48.20 and our stop is $43.35. More nimble traders may want to try to time an entry on a pullback in the $44.50 area.

Suggested Position: Long TJX stock if it trades to $45.52

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/16/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3 million
Listed on October 18, 2010

BEARISH Play Updates

Pulte Group, Inc - PHM - close 8.09 change -0.04 stop 9.05

Target(s): 7.20, 6.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.00, 8.00, 7.00, 6.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.74
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

10/21: We are short PHM at $8.15. There was a surge at the open but the bounces keep getting smacked down. A break below $7.92 should send this lower in a hurry. My comments below remain the same.

10/20: We are adding a short candidate to the model portfolio to balance our positions a bit. I consider this a more aggressive play so please use small position size. PHM saw some unusual option activity on the put side across various strikes in the November, December and January months. In total, 24,000 contracts traded and 75% of them were bought on the ask. PHM is having problems with their debt and their costs to borrow are rising as their credit spreads widen. I suggest we initiate a small short position now and target a move towards the 2008 lows which are about -10% and -13% lower than current levels. Our initial stop will be above the recent highs. I have provided a weekly chart below.

Note: We will most likely experience some volatility in this trade so please use appropriate position size to manage risk. I also like an option play here so that your risk is better defined.

Suggested Position: Short PHM stock, entry was at $8.15 at current levels Option Traders: Long December $8.00 PUT

Entry on October 21, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16th, 2010


Thompson Creek Metals - TC - close 10.59 change +0.30 stop 10.45

Target(s): 11.10 (hit), 11.75 (hit), 12.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 12.60, 11.80, 11.00, 10.55
Final Gain/Loss: -6.28%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Closed

10/21: We have had some opportunities to close TC but did not, and we got hurt today as the stock hit our stop at $10.45. A stronger dollar is hurting the commodity space and it best to step aside. We are flat the positions for a disappointing loss.

10/20: TC recovered nicely but the stock still has a lot of work to do to regain the losses from Tuesday. Unfortunately we do not have a good reference to raise the stop just yet. Let's see how much more we can get out of the position and keep looking for areas to move up the stop. All of the targets above remain valid.

10/18: TC drifted sideways in a fairly tight range on Monday. The stock closed near its highs and continues to look bullish, however, be aware of some possible profit taking in the coming days which I would use an opportunity to launch new positions. If TC breaks above last week's highs there is little resistance until the $12.50 area which is just above our final target. Tighter stops could be considered in the $10.80 area to limit downside risk.

10/16 (James): There is no change from my Thursday comments on TC. The stock saw a little volatility on Friday morning but consolidated sideways into the weekend. A pull back toward the $11.15-11.00 zone should be a new bullish entry point.

10/13: TC hit our first target at $11.75.

Closed Position: Long TC stock, entry was at 11.15

Annotated chart:

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 10/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


FLIR Systems - FLIR - close 27.04 change +1.82 stop 27.05

Target(s): 24.40, 23.70, 21.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 28.00, 27.00, 26.50, 25.50, 24.00
Final Gain/Loss: -4.80%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Closed

10/21: FLIR reported earnings today and raised their guidance. The stock surged higher and our stop was hit. Per the weekend updates we should have adjusted our stops lower towards $26.00. In any event, we let a winner turn into a loser. FLIR has now turned bullish and I would consider long positions on a dip towards $26.00.

10/20: FLIR has a ton of overhead resistance to deal with on any bounces and continues to look bearish. Be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them if the stock breaks lower.

10/19: FLIR continues to look vulnerable and if the correction continues our first two targets could be hit relatively quick. I suggest being ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them as they approach. I've made some adjustments to the targets.

10/18: FLIR has rallied right into resistance (prior support from February) which also happens to be its 20-day SMA. FLIR also has a downtrend line and its declining 50-day SMA just overhead in the $25.25 area. I like new positions here and suggest playing for a pullback of $1.50 to $2.50.

Closed Position: Short FLIR stock at $27.05, entry was at $25.81

Annotated chart:

Entry on October 15, 2010
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 2nd, 2010

Xilinx, Inc. - XLNX - close 26.33 change -0.00 stop 27.42

Target(s): 25.35 (hit), 25.00 (hit), 24.60
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.75, 26.00, 25.30, 25.00, 24.00
Final Gain/Loss: +3.10%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

10/21: Our target at $25.00 was hit and we are flat for a small +3.1% gain. I believe the trade still has downside potential per my comments below but I would caution readers to expect volatility.

10/20: We got what we were looking for in XLNX's earnings report. The company's earnings merely met estimates but revenues missed slightly. More importantly, the company guided sales "flat to down 4%" q/q, which implies revenues of $595M to $620M compared to estimates of $623M. This is not what I would want to hear as a shareholder. On 10/1 Goldman Sachs downgraded this stock and slapped a price target of $22 on it, yet the stock has held its ground, probably because the broader market has also. Today's earnings report may be the catalyst we need for move lower. At the time of this writing XLNX is down about -1.50% in the after market. I expect there to be a wave a selling at the open tomorrow which should send the stock towards our targets. Be prepared to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. If the broader market is weak the selling could pick up steam.

10/19: This is turning out to be a frustrating trade as the dips in XLNX keep getting bought. The company reports earnings tomorrow after the bell so if you are not comfortable holding positions close them tomorrow. I've adjusted the targets and suggest readers use weakness to consider exiting positions. My comments below have not changed.

Closed Position: Short XLNX stock at $25.00, entry was at $25.80

Annotated chart:

Entry on October 7, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million
Listed on October 6, 2010