Editors Note:

Despite the Dow gapping down -305 at the open there was a bullish event today. The Russell 2000 declined -15 points BUT came to a dead stop at uptrend support at 1,580. This is exactly where it should have stopped and suggests the small caps may not be heading lower unless the bog cap Dow really craters. The Nasdaq declined -64 points but that -0.8% was less than the -1.4% drop on the Dow. This is probably because investors were trying to hold on to their positions until after the big cap tech earnings this week.





Current Portfolio


Stop Loss Updates

Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.


Profit Targets

Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green. We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.





Current Position Changes


GME - Gamestop
The long position was entered at the open.

BOTZ - Global X Robotics
The long position was stopped at $26.50 at the gap down open.

IMMU - Immunomedics
The long position was stopped at $17.00 at the gap down open.



If you are looking for a different type of trading strategy, try these newsletters:

Short term Calls and Puts on equities = Option Investor Newsletter

Credit spreads and naked puts = OptionWriter

Long term option investments = LEAPS Investor

3-6 month Option Trades = Ultimate Investor

Iron Condors = Couch Potato Trader



BULLISH Play Updates

BOTZ - Global X Robotics AI - Company Profile

Comments:

All good things must come to an end. The BOTZ position was stopped out at the open when the Dow gapped down -305 points to start the session.

Original Trade Description: October 4th.

The investment seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Indxx Global Robotics & Artificial Intelligence Thematic Index. The fund invests at least 80% of its total assets in the securities of the underlying index. The underlying index is designed to provide exposure to exchange-listed companies in developed markets that are involved in the development of robotics and/or artificial intelligence as defined by Indxx, the provider of the underlying index. The fund is non-diversified. Company description from FinViz.com.

Robots of every description are taking over the manufacturing sector, service sector, etc. Drones are automated. Autos are becoming autonomous.

Even more important to this ETF is the sudden arrival of Artificial Intelligence or AI. That is the buzzword for everything. Everybody is trying to get into the AI business.

This ETF took off last January and while there have been several mild hiccups along the way, the chart is nearly vertical as investors become aware of it.

I am going to lag back on the stop loss because this could be a long-term position.

Update 10/26: Shares of BOTZ fell 50 cents for the biggest one-day drop since the ETF began in September 2016. There was no news but volume of 4.16 million shares was the largest ever and well over the 964,000 historical average.

Position 10/5/17:

Closed 1/30: Long BOTZ shares @ $22.10, exit $26.50, +$4.40 gain.
Alternate position:
Closed 1/30: Long Mar $23 call @ 80 cents, exit $3.58, +$2.78 gain.



GME - Gamestop - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Excellent relative strength with only an 8 cent loss in a very ugly market.

Original Trade Description: January 29th.

GameStop Corp. operates as an omnichannel video game retailer. It sells new and pre-owned video game hardware; video game software; pre-owned and value video game products; video game accessories, such as controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, memory cards, and other add-ons; and digital products, including downloadable content, network points cards, prepaid digital and subscription cards, and digitally downloadable software. The company also sells mobile and consumer electronics, including wireless products and services, and accessories, as well as new and pre-owned smart phones; personal computer (PC) entertainment software in various genres, including sports, action, strategy, adventure/role playing, and simulation; and strategy guides, magazines, and interactive game figures. In addition, it offers collectibles that include licensed merchandise related to the video game, television, and movie industries, as well as pop culture themes; and operates electronic commerce Websites under the GameStop, EB Games, Micromania, and ThinkGeek brand names. Further, the company operates kongregate.com, a browser-based game site; Game Informer magazine, a print and digital video game publication; iOS and Android mobile applications; Simply Mac, a certified Apple consumer electronic products reseller, as well as offers certified training, warranty, and repair services; and Spring Mobile, an authorized AT&T reseller operating AT&T branded wireless retail stores, as well as pre-paid wireless stores under the Cricket Wireless name that offers prepaid services, wireless devices, and accessories. As of January 28, 2017, it operated approximately 7,535 stores in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. GameStop Corp. primarily offers its products through stores under the GameStop, EB Games, and Micromania names. The company was formerly known as GSC Holdings Corp. GameStop Corp. was founded in 1994 and is based in Grapevine, Texas. Company description from FinViz.com.

Expected earnings March 5th.

When Gamestop reported Q4 earnings, sames store sales rose 11.8%, hardware sales rose 39.4% and software sales rose 7.3%. The only gaming hit was an 8.1% decline in sales of preowned software. That was due to a surplus new games hitting the market in the quarter making older titles less desirable.

However, the killer was a 20% decline in revenue from AT&T for selling their mobile phones and DirecTV service. It was not that they sold dramatically fewer units but AT&T slashed their compensation to retailers. For instance if the company got $50 in Q3 for selling a phone and only got $40 in Q4 for selling the same phone, the revenue shortfall is not the fault of the seller but the manufacturer.

Gamestop is currently selling for a ridiculous PE of 5.5 with an 8.7% dividend. Game sales are doing fine and they have 7,500 stores. This looks like a buying opportunity.

Position 1/30:
Long GME shares @ $17.08, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Alternate position: Long April $18 call @ .84, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.



IMMU - Immunomedics Inc - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Shares crashed with the market at the open to stop us out.

Original Trade Description: December 23rd.

Immunomedics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development of monoclonal antibody-based products for the targeted treatment of cancer, autoimmune disorders, and other diseases. The company engages in developing antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) products comprising IMMU-132, an ADC that contains SN-38, which is in Phase II trials used for the treatment of patients with metastatic triple-negative breast cancer, and small-cell and non-small-cell lung cancers; IMMU-130, an anti-CEACAN5-SN-38 ADC that is in Phase II trials for the treatment of solid tumors and metastatic colorectal cancer; and IMMU-140 that targets HLA-DR for the potential treatment of liquid cancers. It also develops products for the treatment of cancer and autoimmune diseases, including epratuzumab, anti-CD22 antibody; veltuzumab, anti-CD20 antibody; milatuzumab, anti-CD74 antibody; and IMMU-114, a humanized anti-HLA-DR antibody. The company also provides LeukoScan, a diagnostic imaging product to determine the location and extent of infection/inflammation in bone. In addition, it offers other product candidates for the treatment of solid tumors and hematologic malignancies, as well as other diseases, which are in various stages of clinical and pre-clinical development. The company has a research collaboration with The Bayer Group to study epratuzumab as a thorium-227-labeled antibody. Immunomedics, Inc. was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in Morris Plains, New Jersey. Company description from FinViz.com.

Immunomedics recently announced a blinded trial on breast cancer drug sacituzumab govitecan showed positive results. The drug is an anti-TROP-2 antibody that can target multiple tumor types including breast cancer, lung cancer and colorectal cancers. This would be a holy grail of cancer treatment if the drug continues to post solid results. The drug is being tested to treat triple negative breast cancer, a tough-to-treat indication with limited treatment options. These cases represent 15% of the 246,660 new cases of breast cancer reported each year resulting in 40,450 deaths per year. In the recent trial the "objective response rate" or ORR was 31% or nearly double the historical rate for the standard treatment of these patients. The company plans to file for an accelerated FDA approval in early 2018. An independent study of this drug by an outside firm estimated it could produce $3 billion in annual sales by 2025.

Obviously, there is no guarantee the drug will be approved or be successful in the real world but the outlook is promising and it is lifting the stock price. Shares broke out to a new 15-year high on Friday and could continue to make new highs as long as the research on this drug and others continues to be positive. Seattle Genetics (SGEN) owns 7.3% of the company and executed warrants to acquire 8.6 million shares on December 5th for $42.4 million. They obviously believe the drug has potential.

Hopefully the potential for a blockbuster drug will insulate us from any market negativity in January.

Update 1/8/18: Royalty Pharma bought $75 million of IMMU shares at $17.15 per share, 15% over the current price. They also paid $175 million for the rights to market Sacituzumab Govitecan (IMMU-132) on a global basis. They will pay a royalty of 4.15% on a step down basis until sales reach $6 billion annually then the rate will be 1.75%. The $250 million in cash will allow IMMU to fund its next phase of growth with expenses covered well into 2020. Shares declined slightly since the stock sale added to the shares outstanding.

Position 12/26/17:

Closed 1/30: Long IMMU shares @ $14.69, exit $17.00, +$2.31 gain.
Alternate position:
Closed 1/30: Long Feb $16 call @ $1.15, exit $1.65, +$.50 gain.



TTMI - TTM Technologies - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Minor gain in a weak market. Our stop loss is just under Thursday's low.

Original Trade Description: January 20th.

TTM Technologies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures printed circuit boards (PCBs) worldwide. It provides a range of PCBs and electro-mechanical solutions, including conventional PCBs, high density interconnect PCBs, flexible PCBs, rigid-flex PCBs, custom assemblies and system integration products, and IC substrates. It also produces test specialized circuits that are used in radio-frequency or microwave emission and collection applications; printed circuits with heavy copper cores, and embedded and press-fit coins; PCBs with electrically passive heat sinks; and PCBs with electrically active thermal cores. In addition, the company offers various services, including design for manufacturability, PCB layout design, simulation and testing, and quick turnaround services. The company's customers include original equipment manufacturers and electronic manufacturing services companies that primarily serve the networking/communications, cellular phone, computing, aerospace and defense, and medical/industrial/instrumentation end markets of the electronics industry; and the U.S. government. TTM Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Costa Mesa, California. Company description from FinViz.com.

TTMI is an underappreciated chip stock. Earnings are rising and they are growing by acquisition. For Q3 they reported earnings of 32 cents on revenue of $667 million. For Q4 they guided for earnings of 49-55 cents on revenue of $700-$750 million. This was the fourth consecutuve quarter of organic growth, revenues and earnings that exceeded guidance.

On December 3rd they announced a deal to acquire radar components maker Anaren for $775 million in case from Veritas Capital. Anaren produces microwave components for wireless, space and defense electronics providers and counts Raytheon Co Lockheed Martin Corp, and Northrop Grumman Corp as customers. TTMI said the deal would immediately reduce costs and be accretive to earnings.

Earnings expected on Feb 7th.

Shares are about to break out to a six month high over $17.50 ahead of earnings. The short-term trend over the last month has been steadily higher. They have long-term resistance at $19.50 and a break over that level would be a new high and cause significant buying.

I do not usually recommend stocks just before earnings. I am suggesting we play the stock position and exit before the Feb 7th event. I am recommending we hold the very inexpensive option over the earnings in hopes of a real breakout to new highs. The stock closed at $17.59 so the $17.50 strike is expensive and risky. The next strike is $20, well OTM but the price is only 35 cents. It is a cheap bet on a positive earnings breakout.

Position 1/22:
Long TTMI shares @ $17.48, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.

Alternate position: Long March $20 call @ 34 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.



VIPS - Vipshop - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Only a 56 cent decline in a weak market. Actually good relative strength.

Original Trade Description: January 27th.

Vipshop Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as an online discount retailer for various brands in the People's Republic of China. It offers a range of branded products, including women's apparel, such as casual wear, jeans, dresses, outerwear, swimsuits, lingerie, pajamas, and maternity clothes; men's apparel comprising casual and smart-casual T-shirts, polo shirts, jackets, pants, and underwear; women and men shoes for casual and formal occasions; and accessories consisting of belts, fashionable jewelry, watches, and glasses for women and men. The company also provides handbags, such as purses, satchels, duffel bags, and wallets; apparel, gear and accessories, furnishings and decor, toys, and games for boys, girls, infants, and toddlers of all age groups; sports apparel, and sports gear, and footwear for tennis, badminton, soccer, and swimming; and skin care and cosmetic products, including cleansers, lotions, face and body creams, face masks, sunscreen, foundations, lipsticks, eye shadows, and nail polish. In addition, it offers home furnishing products comprising bedding and bath products, home decors, and dining and tabletop items; small household appliances; designer apparel, footwear and accessories; and snacks, health supplements, and occasion-based gifts, such as chocolates, moon-cakes, and tea. Further, the company provides consumer financing, supply chain financing, and wealth management services. The company provides its branded products through its vipshop.com, vip.com, and lefeng.com Websites, as well as through its cellular phone application. Vipshop Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Company description from FinViz.com.

VIPS has about a 6% market share in e-commerce apparel in China. Currently there is a battle in progress for market share among numerous major players including Alibaba and their various websites. They all exist in come part under the Alibaba umbrella.

Tencent (TCEHY) and JD.com (HD) are two of the major online players. They just announced an $853 million stake in VIPS. Tencent bought a 7% stake for $604 million and JD.com put up another $259 million to increase their stake from 2.5% to 5.5%. FYI Tencent owns a 21% stake and Walmart owns a 10% stake in JD.com. These are major players who believe VIPS is going to grow significantly.

VIPS is the 4th largest business to consumer online retailer in China behind Alibaba's Tmall, JD.com and Suning, in that order. Over the last 12 months VIPS increased its active customers by 22% to 6.5 million. The company is expanding out of apparel and accessories and into things like pharmaceuticals. On Alibaba's Singles Day, VIPS handled more than 10 million orders. Analysts expect VIPS revenue to grow 33% in 2018 and earnings to grow 43%.

Why is the investment by JD.com and Tencent so critical? Tencent has 980 million monthly active users on WeChat and JD.com has 266.3 million active customers. They are going to make these customers available to VIPS. Remember, VIPS only has 6.5 million customers but they have the products that Tencent does not have. This means VIPS sales are going to explode.

VIPS has earnings on Feb 19th. I am recommending we buy a cheap call and hold over the earnings event because good things are likely to come out of the report.

No stock, just buy the call. The stock is rising quickly but it could reverse just as easily.

Position 1/29/18:
Long Mar $19 call @ $1.15, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.




BEARISH Play Updates

VXX - Volatility Index Futures - ETF Description

Comments:

Since this is a long-term slow moving ETF position, there will not be daily commentary.

Original Trade Description: September 18th.

The VXX is a short-term volatility ETF based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract, they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETF. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.

As evidence of this flaw, they have now done four 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last five reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16), $12.77 (8/22/17). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.

We know from experience that the VXX always declines. The last two times we shorted this ETF we had a $7.23 and $5.98 gain.

Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETF and forget it. If we do get a prolonged rally into year-end we could see a sharp decline in the VXX over the next 2-3 months. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable I will put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in.

The VXX is hard to short. Shortsqueeze.com says there are 19.9 million shares short out of 26.7 million shares outstanding. The shares are out there and being traded because the volume on Monday was 29.6 million. You have to tell your broker you really want to short it and make them find the shares. Sometimes it takes days or even a week before your broker will find you the shares. Trust me, be persistent and it will be worth the effort.

I had held off after the 1:4 reverse split because the options were expensive and I was expecting volatility in September from the budget battle and debt ceiling hurdle. With those issues pushed out into December, the volatility is dropping like the proverbial rock. Several readers have already emailed me asking when I was going to put this position back in the portfolio.

Position 9/19/17:

Short VXX shares @ $40.95, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.





If you like the trade setups you have been receiving and you are on a free trial then now is the time to subscribe. Do not wait until you miss a newsletter to decide you want to take the plunge.

subscribe now