Editors Note:

The Russell went from a promising breakout to a frustrating break down in only four days. The small cap index broke over strong resistance at 1,600 last Friday and suggested there were good times ahead. The China news broke on Sunday and the Russell returned to a 5-week intraday low on Thursday. The correction level at 1,566 is getting more play than a game at Chucky Cheese with the index closing just over that level once again.



Current Portfolio


Stop Loss Updates

Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.


Profit Targets

Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green. We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.





Current Position Changes


CY - Cypress Semiconductor
The long position was stopped at $16.65.

TRN - Trinity Industries
The long position was entered at the open on Monday.

AOBC - American Outdoor Brands
The long stock position was stopped at $9.50.

SIG - Signet Jewelers
The long-put position was stopped at $23.75.


BULLISH Play Updates

AOBC - American Outdoor Brands - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. shares dropped in the weak market to stop us out of the stock position. I am recommending we close the option position. After the drop there is little hope of the option becoming profitable.

Original Trade Description: April 27th.

American Outdoor Brands Corporation designs, manufactures, and sells firearms worldwide. The company's Firearms segment offers handguns, long guns, handcuffs, suppressors, and other firearm-related products under the Smith & Wesson, M&P, Performance Center, Gemtech, and Thompson/Center Arms brands. It also sells parts purchased through third parties; operates a private law enforcement training facility; and provides manufacturing services to other businesses under the Smith & Wesson and Smith & Wesson Precision Components brands. This segment sells its products to gun enthusiasts, collectors, hunters, sportsmen, competitive shooters, individuals desiring home and personal protection, law enforcement and security agencies and officers, and military agencies. The company's Outdoor Products & Accessories segment offers reloading, gunsmithing, and gun cleaning supplies; stainless steel cutting tools and accessories; flashlights, tree saws, and related trimming accessories; shooting supplies, rests, and other related accessories; apparel; vault accessories; laser grips and laser sights; and a range of products for survival and emergency preparedness, as well as field rests, knives, gun vises, hearing protection products, camping and survival gears, and case tumblers. It provides its products under the Caldwell, Wheeler, Tipton, Frankford Arsenal, Smith & Wesson, M&P, Thompson/Center, Lockdown, Hooyman, BOG-POD, Golden Rod, Non-Typical, Crimson Trace, Imperial, Schrade, Old Timer, Bubba Blade, UST, and KeyGear brands. The company markets its products through dealers, retailers, in-store retail channels, and range operations; social and electronic media; in-store retail merchandising systems and strategies; and Websites and online retail stores. The company was formerly known as Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation and changed its name to American Outdoor Brands Corporation in January 2017. The company was founded in 1852 and is based in Springfield, Massachusetts. Company description from FinViz.com.

Every time some idiot goes berserk with a firearm the anti-gun crowd ramps up their attack on lawful gun owners. It does not seem to matter that 270 million gun owners in the US have not broken the law but they want to change the laws because of individuals that don't obey the laws anyway. Murder is against the law, but these violators do not care.

The ensuing efforts to ban guns always sends millions of people into the gun stores to buy guns while they are still legal. The stocks of gun makers rally for 6-9 months and then fall back into dormancy.

The shooting in New Zealand and others have triggered the current wave of proposed laws. The FBI reported that Federal background checks rose from 2,053,886 in February to 2,644,851 in March. That is the biggest spike in Feb-Mar number since the reporting began in 1998. April is likely to be even larger.

Shares of Ruger gained $3 for the week and AOBC, formerly Smith and Wesson, closed at a two-month high. As these numbers are more widely reported and the April numbers show another increase, the gun stocks are likely to continue higher.

Earnings June 6th.

Position 4/29:
Long AOBC shares @ $9.97, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
Optional: Long June $11 call @ 30 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.



CY - Cypress Semiconductor - Company Profile

Comments:

Monster drop on the Intel guidance warning to stop us out again.

Original Trade Description: May 4th.

Cypress Semiconductor Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells embedded system solutions worldwide. It operates in two segments, Microcontroller and Connectivity Division, and Memory Products Division. The Microcontroller and Connectivity Division provides microcontroller (MCU), analog, and wireless and wired connectivity solutions, including Traveo automotive MCUs; programmable system-on-chip and general-purpose MCUs; analog power management integrated circuits and energy harvesting solutions; CapSense capacitive-sensing controllers; TrueTouch touchscreens; Wi-Fi, Bluetooth, and Bluetooth low energy; and USB controllers comprising solutions for the USB-C and USB power delivery standards, as well as wireless Internet of things connectivity solutions. The Memory Products Division provides NOR and NAND flash memories, static random access memory (SRAM) products, HyperRAm, synchronous and asynchronous SRAMs, nonvolatile SRAMs, F-RAM ferroelectric memory devices, and other specialty memories and clocks. The company serves various markets, including automotive, industrial, consumer, computation, white goods, communications, handset, PC peripherals, mobile devices, networking, telecommunications, video, data communications, computation, and medical markets. Cypress Semiconductor Corporation sells its semiconductor products through distributors and manufacturing representative firms, as well as through sales force directly to original equipment manufacturers and their suppliers. The company was founded in 1982 and is headquartered in San Jose, California. Company description from FinViz.com.

Cypress makes chips for the Internet of Things or IoT. That has evolved into automotive uses as well as today's cars are connected to the internet in multiple ways. Self-driving cars obviously have more chips but many cars today function as their own WiFi hotspot for the occupants. I am sure the explosion of IoT devices we have seen over the last several years is just the tip of the iceberg for the years to come.

Cypress reported adjusted earnings of 27 cents that beat estimates for 24 cents. Revenue of $539 million beat estimates for $535 million. The company guided for Q2 revenue of $515-$545 million and earnings of 22-26 cents. Analysts were expecting $528 million and 24 cents. That put them right in line with estimates.

Position 5/6:
Closed 5/9: Long Sept $18 call @ $1.10, exit .67, -.43 loss



INO - Inovio - Company Profile

Comments:

INO reported a loss of 30 cents that missed estimates for 29 cents. Revenue of $2.8 million was a big miss of $4.4 million analysts expected. Shares fell and our option will likely expire worthless.

Original Trade Description: April 3rd.

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc., a late-stage biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of DNA-based immunotherapies and vaccines to prevent and treat cancers and infectious diseases. Its SynCon immunotherapy design has the ability to break the immune system's tolerance of cancerous cells, as well as is intended to facilitate cross-strain protection against known, as well as new unmatched strains of pathogens, such as influenza. The company is involved in conducting and planning clinical studies of its proprietary SynCon immunotherapies for human papillomavirus-caused pre-cancers and cancers; bladder cancer; glioblastoma multiforme; hepatitis B virus; hepatitis C virus; human immunodeficiency virus; Ebola virus; middle east respiratory syndrome; and Zika virus. Its partners and collaborators include MedImmune, Limited; The Wistar Institute; University of Pennsylvania; GeneOne Life Science Inc.; ApolloBio Corporation; Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; Genentech, Inc.; Plumbline Life Sciences, Inc.; Drexel University; National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; United States Military HIV Research Program; U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases; National Institutes of Health; HIV Vaccines Trial Network; Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency; the Parker Institute for Cancer Immunotherapy; and Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations. Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Inc. was founded in 1979 and is headquartered in Plymouth Meeting, Pennsylvania. Company description from FinViz.com.

Inovio is developing new cancer treatments that deliver coded DNA to cells so they can create their own antibodies against the invading cancer cells. They have multiple trials in progress and the success of any one trial will catapult INO significantly higher.

The drawback is money. They ended the year with $85.5 million after burning through $69 million in 2018. In February they announced a secondary to raise another $82 million. The secondary was convertible notes at $5.38 in 2023. Since that is almost a slam dunk deal, investors trashed the stock because of the 17% dilution in 2023. I think that is very short sighted since we could see three years of stock gains before that comes to pass.

Earnings May 8th.

After crashing to $3.30 on the secondary announcement shares have started to rebound. Wednesday's close was a two-month high. They announced the early closing for enrollment on two different cancer trials. They also announced a new therapy against respiratory tract tumors in a new study. Good things are breaking out all over.

Update 4/20: Inovio published new data on their cancer killing T-Cell engagers. The DNA encoded Bi-specific T Cell Engagers cleared established tumors in preclinical studies. One dose of the drug lasted for months compared to only hours for the current versions.

Position $4/4/19:
Long May $4 call @ 30 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.

Previously Closed 4/17: Long INO shares @ $3.86, exit $3.85, -.01 loss.



PSTG - Pure Storage - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. The decline in the market has taken this stock well below resistance and with only a week to go. Without a miracle this will expire worthless. I am dropping it as a total loss.

Original Trade Description: April 5th.

Pure Storage, Inc. engages in building a data platform that enables businesses to enhance performance and reduce complexity and costs worldwide. The company delivers its data platform through Purity Operating Environment, an optimized software for solid-state memory that offers enterprise-class storage and protocol services; FlashArray and FlashBlade optimized hardware products for solid-state memory to enhance the performance and density of flash, optimize its advanced software services, and reduce solution cost for customers; Pure1, a cloud-based management and support software; and FlashStack and Artificial Intelligence Ready Infrastructure converged infrastructure solutions. Its data platform is used for a range of use cases, including database applications, large-scale analytics, artificial intelligence/machine learning, private and public cloud infrastructure and webscale applications, virtual server infrastructure, and virtual desktop infrastructure; and helps customers scale their businesses through real-time and accurate analytics, increase employee productivity, improve operational efficiency, and deliver compelling user experiences to their customers and partners. The company serves enterprise and commercial organizations, cloud, global systems integrators, and service providers across various set of industry verticals, consumer web, education, energy, financial services, governments, healthcare, manufacturing, media, retail, and telecommunications through a network of distribution and channel partners. The company was formerly known as OS76, Inc. and changed its name to Pure Storage, Inc. in January 2010. Pure Storage, Inc. was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Mountain View, California. Company description from FinViz.com.

Their memory management products are state of the art and their acquisition of Compuverde will increase those capabilities. Compuverde is a leading developer of file software solutions for enterprises and cloud providers. The combination of the two companies will allow customers to implement true hybrid architectures in on premise or cloud applications or a mix of both.

They reported earnings of 14 cents that missed estimates for 19 cents. However, the miss was due to a breakdown at a contract manufacturer and prevented them from shipping a large number of orders. Revenue still rose 24% to $422.2 million despite missing estimates for $443 because of the supplier breakdown.

Shares dipped on the initial earnings results but have rebounded to six month high. Shares have been consolidating for the last six days but appear to be ready for a breakout.

Earnings May 30th.

Position 4/11/19:
Dropping: Long May $25 call @ 40 cents, likely to expire, -.40 loss.

Previously Closed 4/22: Long PSTG shares @ $23.40, exit $22.45, -.95 loss.



TRN - Trinity Industries - Company Profile

Comments:

We were

Original Trade Description: May 4th.

Trinity Industries, Inc. provides rail transportation products and services in North America. It operates through three segments: Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group, Rail Products Group, and All Other. The Railcar Leasing and Management Services Group segment leases freight and tank railcars; originates and manages railcar leases for third-party investor-owned fund; and provides fleet maintenance and management services to industrial shippers. As of December 31, 2018, it had a fleet of 99,215 owned or leased railcars. This segment serves industrial shipper and railroad companies operating in agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. The Rail Products Group segment provides freight and tank railcars for transporting various liquids, gases, and dry cargo; and offers railcar maintenance services. Its railcars include autorack, box, covered hopper, gondola, intermodal, open hopper, and tank cars. This segment serves railroads, leasing companies, and industrial shippers of products in the agriculture, construction and metals, consumer products, energy, and refined products and chemicals markets. The All Other segment manufactures guardrail, crash cushions, and other highway barriers; and engages in the captive insurance, transportation, and other peripheral businesses. The company sells or leases products and services through its own sales personnel and independent sales representatives. Trinity Industries, Inc. was founded in 1933 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. Company description from FinViz.com.

This is a simple play. Trinity reported earnings of 24 cents that beat estimates for 20 cents. Revenue of $604.8 million missed estimates for $674.9 million. They guided for full year earnings of $1.15-$1.35 and that put the midpoint of $1.25 below analyst estimates for $1.31.

They also affirmed full year production targets of 23,500-25,500 railcars. However, they deleted 3,050 railcars from their backlog because of the weak financial condition of the buyer. It was assumed to be an energy company. The cars were not scheduled to be delivered in 2019 so it has no impact on their earnings forecast.

Shares were hammered for a $3 loss to $21. After spending five days in the doghouse shares are starting to rebound. Analysts believe the price drop was an overreaction on a solid company with a great business.

Buy July $23 call, currently 70 cents, no initial stop loss.



VIPS - Vipshop Holdings - Company Profile

Comments:

No specific news. Rebound stalled in the weak market.

Original Trade Description: March 30th.

Vipshop Holdings Limited operates as an online discount retailer for various brands in the People's Republic of China. It operates in two segments, Vip.com and Internet Finance Business. The company offers women's apparel, such as casual wear, jeans, dresses, outerwear, swimsuits, lingerie, pajamas, and maternity clothes; men's apparel comprising casual and smart-casual T-shirts, polo shirts, jackets, pants, and underwear; women and men shoes for casual and formal occasions; and accessories that include belts, jewelry, watches, and glasses for women and men. It also provides handbags, which comprise purses, satchels, duffel bags, and wallets; apparel, gears and accessories, furnishings and decor, toys, and games for boys, girls, infants, and toddlers; sports apparel, sports gear, and footwear for tennis, badminton, soccer, and swimming; and consumer electronic products, including computers, mobile handsets, digital cameras, and home appliances. In addition, the company offers skin care and cosmetic products, such as cleansers, lotions, face and body creams, face masks, sunscreen, foundations, lipsticks, eye shadows, and nail polish; and home furnishings comprising bedding and bath products, home decors, dining and tabletop items, and small household appliances. Further, it provides designer apparel, footwear, and accessories; and snacks and health supplements, and occasion-based gifts. Additionally, the company offers Internet finance services, which comprise consumer and supplier financing, and wealth management services. It provides its branded products through its vipshop.com, vip.com, and lefeng.com online platforms, as well as through its cellular phone application. Additionally, the company offers warehousing, logistics, procurement, research and development, consulting, and software development and information technology support services. Vipshop Holdings Limited was founded in 2008 and is headquartered in Guangzhou, the People's Republic of China. Company description from FinViz.com.

In late February, the company reported earnings of 19 cents that beat estimates for 18 cents. However, revenue of $3.80 billion missed estimates for $3.96 billion. The 8.1% rise in revenue was down from a 16.4% rise in the prior quarter. The CEO said the weak quarter was the result of the company shifting some low margin categories from the "first-party business" and into the "marketplace platform." He said the move would result in a positive improvement in earnings beginning next quarter. For the current quarter they were only targeting 1-5% revenue growth and analysts were expecting 11.6%. The CEO cautioned that revenue growth was not the metric to worry about. The company is now focused on increasing profits rather than increasing revenue at any cost.

Zacks reiterated a buy rating saying earnings estimates had risen 5.9% over the last 60 days which includes the post earnings commentary. VIPS only has a 9.7 PE compared to 29.4 for the rest of the industry.

After the Zacks comments on the 25th the stock began escalating sharply and closed at an 8-month high on Friday. The stock is now over the 50, 100 and 200 day averages.

Position 4/1/19:
Long August $9 call @ 75 cents, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.

Previously closed 4/15: Long VIPS shares @ $8.19, exit $7.85, -.34 loss.



BEARISH Play Updates

BHGE - Baker Hughes GE - Company Description

Comments:

BHGE announced a quarterly dividend of 18 cents payable May 31st to holders on May 21st. Shares closed at a 4-month low. This is a May option so I am recommending we close it on Monday at the open.

Original Trade Description: April 20th.

Baker Hughes, a GE company provides integrated oilfield products, services, and digital solutions worldwide. Its Oilfield Services segment offers drilling, wireline, evaluation, completion, production, and intervention services; and drilling and completions fluids, completions tools and systems, wellbore intervention tools and services, artificial lift systems, pressure pumping systems, and oilfield and industrial chemicals for integrated oil and natural gas, and oilfield service companies. The company's Oilfield Equipment segment designs and manufactures products and services, including pressure control equipment and services, subsea production systems and services, drilling equipment, and flexible pipeline systems; and onshore and offshore drilling and production systems, and equipment for floating production platforms, as well as provides a range of services related to onshore and offshore drilling activities. Its Turbomachinery & Process Solutions segment provides equipment and related services for mechanical-drive, compression, and power-generation applications across the oil and gas industry, as well as products and services to serve the downstream segments of industry. Its product portfolio includes drivers, compressors, and turnkey solutions; and pumps, valves, and compressed natural gas and small-scale liquefied natural gas solutions. This segment serves upstream, midstream, onshore and offshore, industrial, engineering, procurement, and construction companies. The company's Digital Solutions segment provides sensor-based measurement, non-destructive testing and inspection, turbine, generator and plant controls, and condition monitoring, as well as pipeline integrity solutions for a range of industries, including oil and gas, power generation, aerospace, metals, and transportation. It serves through direct and indirect channels. The company is based in Houston, Texas. Baker Hughes, a GE company is a subsidiary of General Electric Company. Company description from FinViz.com.

On Thursday energy services giant Schlumberger (SLB) reported earnings of 30 cents that matched estimates. Revenue rose only slightly to $7.879 billion but it was enough to beat estimates for $7.810 billion. Both numbers were lower than the prior quarter. The company projected lower activity in land rigs in North America and seasonal slowness in international markets. North American revenue was down -3% because of pricing weakness. They do expect the overall market to improve as production cuts overseas take effect. They also warned that four years of slowing investment in the sector would result to lower services activity in the years ahead.

If Schlumberger is struggling in this energy market then Baker Hughes GE will be struggling as well. Shares rallied with oil prices early in 2019 but now that prices have stabilized and we are losing 10 active rigs a week, their earnings should be suffering.

They make a lot of money from fracking and completing wells. With drilled and uncompleted wells now over 8,500 there is plenty of work but that number is growing instead of declining. That means production companies are not completing them. With pipelines at capacity there is no reason to spend a couple million dollars completing a well only to have it sit idle because you can't get the oil to market.

I suspect Baker Hughes is going to disappoint when they report earnings on April 30th. I am recommending we buy an inexpensive put option and hold over the report. The May $25 put is relatively inexpensive.

Update 5/3: BHGE reported earnings of 15 cents that nearly doubled the year ago quarter at 9 cents. However, cash flow was negative -$419 million compared to estimates for +$188.5 million. Shares declined sharply on the news but rebounded slightly on Friday.

Position 4/22:
Long May $25 put @ 65 cents, no stop loss.



GME - Gamestop - Company Description

Comments:

New low on the stock but this is a May option so I am recommending we close it at the open on Monday.

Original Trade Description: March 23rd.

GameStop Corp. operates as a multichannel video game, consumer electronics, and wireless services retailer. It operates in five segments: United States, Canada, Australia, Europe, and Technology Brands. The company sells new and pre-owned video game hardware; video game software; pre-owned and value video games; video game accessories, including controllers, gaming headsets, virtual reality products, memory cards, and other add-ons; and digital products, such as downloadable content, network points cards, prepaid digital and prepaid subscription cards, and digitally downloadable software. It also sells wireless products, services, and accessories; collectibles, such as licensed merchandise primarily related to the video game, television, and movie industries, as well as pop culture themes; gaming-related print media, and mobile and consumer electronics products; PC entertainment software in various genres comprising sports, action, strategy, adventure/role playing, and simulation; and carry strategy guides, magazines, and interactive game figures. In addition, the company operates e-commerce sites under the GameStop, EB Games, Micromania, and ThinkGeek brands; collectibles stores under the Zing Pop Culture and ThinkGeek brands; and Spring Mobile, an authorized AT&T reseller operating AT&T branded wireless retail stores. Further, it provides Game Informer magazine, a print and digital video game publication; and operates Simply Mac, an authorized Apple reseller that sells Apple products, including desktop computers, laptops, tablets and smart phones, and related accessories and other consumer electronics products, as well as training, warranty, and repair services. As of March 28, 2018, the company operated approximately 7,200 stores across 14 countries. It primarily operates its stores under the GameStop, EB Games, and Micromania brands. The company was formerly known as GSC Holdings Corp. GameStop Corp. was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Grapevine, Texas. Company description from FinViz.com.

Gamestop is headed to the same fate as Blockbuster. Gamestop sells preowned game consoles and video games. With Google announcing Stadia where all games are browser based and run on any device and computing power is not important, this is a major hurdle for Gamestop.

Microsoft announced a similar fate with plans on moving the Xbox to the cloud, called Project XCloud, and there will be no game consoles or game CDs.

With these two giants eliminating the hardware and software that is resold by Gamestop, this company is in a world of trouble. They do sell other products but consumers come into their stores for the games. With 7,200 stores they have a lot of overhead and their biggest revenue items are disappearing.

Granted, this will not happen overnight. These game conversions to the cloud will take months to take hold and many months to become the majority of market share. However, investors will see the future, with Blockbuster a prime example, and Gamestop shares are going to bleed value in the months ahead.

Earnings April 2nd. Normally we would not take a position in front of earnings but there will be analyst questions about the path of progress. The answers may be hard for investors to handle. I am recommending we own a put and hold it over the earnings report.

Update 4/3: Gamestop (GME) reported earnings of $1.60 that matched estimates but was down from $2.02 in the year ago quarter. Revenue declined from $3.32 billion to $3.06 billion and missed estimates for $3.28 billion. Even worse they projected a 5% to 10% decline in revenue in 2019 and losses of up to 5 cents per share in Q1. The company is struggling to adapt to changes in the video game industry.

Microsoft has announced a new Xbox game console that only uses downloaded games. That prevents users from reselling the games to Gamestop on CDs as in the past. Apple and Google also announced new video game offerings that stream games through your browser and the game does not reside on your computer or mobile device. That means no CDs and no consoles needed to play the games. That means no resale opportunities for Gamestop. This is also going to impact the resale value of existing games and consoles. In addition to their woes, Activision Blizzard announced today they were going to release a battle-royale version of Call of Duty that would be free online in the month of April.

Shares fell below $9 at the open but rebounded sharply in what should be a dead cat bounce.

Update 4/6/19: After the disappointing earnings Bank of America reiterated an underperform (sell) with a price target of $5. However, Telsey Advisory reiterated a market perform and a $10 target. The stock closed at $9.86.

Position 3/25/19:
Long May $10 put @ 65 cents. see portfolio graphic for stop loss.



SIG - Signet Jewelers - Company Description

Comments:

No specific news. We closed the short stock position at the open on Monday and we were stopped on the long put position on Tuesday to exit the play.

Original Trade Description: April 13th.

Signet Jewelers Limited engages in the retail sale of diamond jewelry, watches, and other products. As of February 02, 2019, it operated 3,334 stores and kiosks. The company operates through three segments, North America, International, and Other. The North America segment operates stores in malls and off-mall locations primarily under the Kay Jewelers, Kay Jewelers Outlet, Jared The Galleria Of Jewelry, Jared Vault, Zales Jewelers, Zales Outlet, Piercing Pagoda, Peoples Jewellers, Gordon's Jewelers, and Mappins Jewellers regional banners; and JamesAllen.com, an online jewelry retailer Website. This segment operated 2,729 locations in the United States and 128 locations in Canada. The International segment operates stores in shopping malls and off-mall locations, principally under the H.Samuel and Ernest Jones brands. This segment operated 477 stores in the United Kingdom, the Republic of Ireland, and the Channel Islands. The Other segment is involved in the purchase and conversion of rough diamonds to polished stones, as well as provision of diamond polishing services. Signet Jewelers Limited was founded in 1950 and is based in Hamilton, Bermuda. Company description from FinViz.com.

On April 4th, Signet Jewelers reported earnings of $3.96 that beat estimates for $3.77 but that was still a decline of 7.5% from the year ago quarter. Revenue of $2.154.7 billion beat the estimates for $2.142 billion but declined 6% year over year.

Globally same store sales declined -2% with sales in North America down -5.5%. The average number of transactions declined 4%. Sales at Zales stores declined -2% and Piercing Pagoda sales declined -17.1%. Kay stores fell -1.6%, Jared -8.4% and James Allen -1.4%. international sales declined -16.6% to $195 million and same store sales fell -7.3%. Average transaction values declined -5.4% and the number of transactions declined -2.3%.

They guided for Q2 for a loss of 17-28 cents and analysts were expecting a loss of 6 cents. Same store sales are expected to decline between 0.5% and 1.5%. For the full year they guided for earnings of $2.87-$3.45 and analysts were expecting $3.53. Same store sales are expected to be down -2.5% for the year. They closed 262 stores in 2018 and plan to close another 150 in 2019.

There was NOTHING to like about these earnings. Shares have fallen $5 since April 4th and with metrics like those they could fall significantly lower. Shares closed at a new 52-week low on Friday.

Position 4/15/19:
Closed 5/6: Short SIG shares @ $23.18, exit $22.46, +.72 gain.
Closed 5/7: Long July $20 put @ $1.35, exit $1.17, -.18 loss.



VXXB - Barclays VIX Futures ETN - ETN Description

Comments:

Big week for the VXXB with a spike from $25 to $31. The shares fell back on Friday in the market rebound to post a 7.73% decline. It will probably take us weeks to make a new low but it will happen.

Original Trade Description: Nov 17th.

The investment seeks return linked to the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index TR. The ETN offers exposure to futures contracts of specified maturities on the VIX index and not direct exposure to the VIX index or its spot level. The index is designed to provide investors with exposure to one or more maturities of futures contracts on the CBOE Volatility Index. Company description from FinViz.com.

The VXXB is a short-term volatility ETN based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract, they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETN. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.

As evidence of this flaw, the prior VXX ETN had done five 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last five reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16), $12.77 (8/22/17). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.

We know from experience that the VXXB and its predecessor the VXX always decline long term.

Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETN and forget it. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable, I may put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in. We could keep this play in the portfolio on a trading basis permanently.

The VXXB will be hard to short. The shares are out there and being traded because the volume on Thursday was 22.1 million. You have to tell your broker you really want to short it and make them find the shares. Sometimes it takes days or even a week before your broker will find you the shares. Trust me, be persistent and it will be worth the effort.

Position 2/1/19:
Short VXXB shares @ $35.33, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.