The stock market's rally has stalled near round-number resistance as investors face the July non-farm payrolls (jobs) report on Friday morning. Stocks are very overbought with a four-week run up from the July lows. If the jobs report comes in better than expected then the rally may continue. If the number is worse than expected then it would be a logical catalyst to spark a sell-off as traders start profit taking. If the official Labor Department numbers are relatively close to the -320,000 estimate then it's anyone's guess on market direction but I'd bet on some sell-the-news sort of move. I've heard a lot of different estimates today. Goldman Sachs reduced their estimate from -300,000 jobs to -250,000. Another analyst reduced his to -150,000. TrimTabs expects -488,000. There is definitely a lot of mixed expectations and plenty of room for a surprise. I am not suggesting new trades tonight as we wait to see how the market interprets the data.
FYI: Traders may want to keep an eye on the Intercontinential Exchange Inc. (ICE) as a potential bearish trade. The oversold bounce is beginning to roll over. I was considering a trigger to buy puts under the $90.00 level with a target near $85.00 and then a final target near $80.00 and its 200-dma.