NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS
Northrop Grumman - NOC - close: 189.37 change: +0.36
Stop Loss: 186.85
Target(s): To Be Determined
Current Option Gain/Loss: Unopened
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Entry on December -- at $---.--
Listed on December 22, 2015
Time Frame: Exit PRIOR to earnings in late January
New Positions: Yes, see below
A few years ago, back in 2011, politicians in Washington created massive defense spending and entitlement cuts in their sequestration budget cut threats. It was supposed to be a goad to provoke their peers and rivals to getting a budget deal done. It didn't work. The sequestration cuts were put into place in 2013 but instead of crushing the defense industry stocks the group has thrived.
NOC is in the industrial goods sector. According to the company,
"Northrop Grumman is a leading global security company providing innovative systems, products and solutions in unmanned systems, cyber, C4ISR, and logistics and modernization to government and commercial customers worldwide." They focus on four business sectors: aerospace systems, electronic systems, information systems, and technical services.
One reason the major defense names have done so well was their focus on gaining new clients overseas. If the U.S. was going to cut back on spending (more like cut back on the pace of spending) then military contractors focused on generating new business with allies overseas and it worked.
NOC has beaten Wall Street's earnings estimates the last four quarters in a row. They've delivered better than expected revenue numbers three of the last four quarters. Plus, NOC management has raised guidance three of the last four quarters. As of their most recent earnings report on October 28th, NOC's backlog was about $36 billion.
NOC has been in a heated battle with rivals Boeing (BA) and Lockheed Martin (LMT) over one of the biggest defense contracts of all time. That is the Air Force's new Long Range Strike Bomber contract. Aerospace giants Boeing and Lockheed had teamed up together to win this deal. Some were calling it a David-versus-Goliath story. NOC was the underdog and surprisingly the U.S. government gave the contract, worth a potential $80 billion, to NOC in late October this year. BA and LMT have since chosen to protest this decision so the ultimate decision has yet to be finalized but it's a bullish development for NOC investors.
The LRSB contract has two parts. The engineering and manufacturing and development portion of the contract is worth more than $21 billion. Once it's finally developed the planes are supposed to cost the government $564 million apiece. Altogether the defense department could spend up to $80 billion on the program.
Another bullish tailwind for defense contractors like NOC is the ongoing global battle with radical Islamic terrorists and ISIS. The U.S. will likely boost its defense spending as it turns up the heat on this threat. Meanwhile after the terrorist attacks in Paris, analysts believe that NATO could generate an additional $100 billion in defense spending as they beef up their military might.
JPMorgan recently upgraded shares of NOC from "neutral" to "overweight" and gave the stock a $212 price target. They like NOC and believe it is a place of "safety and steadiness" in a volatile market.
The stock has shown significant relative strength this year with a +28% gain in 2015. The last few weeks have seen NOC consolidate sideways beneath resistance at $190 but with a bullish trend of higher lows as investors keep buying the dips. The stock looks ready to break out. Tonight we are suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $191.25.
Trigger @ $191.25
- Suggested Positions -
Buy the FEB $195 CALL (NOC160219C195) current ask $3.90
option price is a current quote and not a suggested entry price.
Entry disclaimer: To avoid an unfavorable entry point, we will not launch a new play if the stock gaps open more than $1.00 past our suggested entry point.
Option Format: symbol-year-month-day-call-strike