With the major indexes at resistance, it is time to change direction. The bullish bounce is officially overbought and now at strong resistance. Time to plan for a decline.
NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS
No New Bullish Plays
NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - ETF Description
The Russell 2000 ETF attempts to track the investment results of the Russell 2000 Index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities.
The Russell 2000 is facing strong resistance from 1150-1165. The index actually touched 1,190 in early June but I seriously doubt we will see that level again. The S&P closed right at 2,100 and has strong resistance from 2100-2115. The Dow closed only 72 points under the post Brexit close at 18,011.
We recovered from the post Brexit crash on a combination of equity fund window dressing for the end of the quarter and pension funds rebalancing the ratio of bond to equities. Reportedly they had to buy up to $18 billion in equities.
Now we are at resistance and all those uplifting events are over. The uncertainty over the UK exit still exists and the dollar/pound imbalance will cause a significant number of earnings warnings for Q3.
All the fundamentals point to a weak July and the artificial lift from the end of the quarter buying is over.
Note the volume in SPY and IWM puts for August on Thursday. The far right column is the open interest and the second from the right is the volume traded on Thursday. This is about 3 times the number of calls for the same period. The vast majority of traders are expecting a market decline.
I am recommending we buy puts on the IWM because the premiums are cheaper. I am recommending an entry trigger because we could still move higher ahead of the long weekend. S&P future are down -4 but that could be temporary.
With an IWM trade at $113.95
Buy August $112 puts, currently $2.31. No initial stop loss.