The S&P has now declined for nine consecutive days and the longest streak in 36 years. That is the equivalent to red coming up on the roulette table nine times in a row. The index is short-term oversold after a 4.8% decline.
NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - ETF Profile
The IWM currently holds 1,975 stocks and attempts to replicate the performance of the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index.
The S&P has now declined for nine consecutive days and the longest streak in 36 years. That is the equivalent to red coming up on the roulette table nine times in a row. The index is short-term oversold after a 4.8% decline. I believe the sell off over election uncertainty is nearly over. Investors and funds have had a week since the end of the October fiscal year end to make changes to their portfolios and raise cash for their post election purchases.
We all know there are several sectors that will not do well under a Clinton presidency and some that will prosper. Under a Trump presidency there are more profitable sectors but there is a greater fear of the unknown. He is a take no prisoners type of person and he has a lot of ideas about how to make American great again. Unfortunately, it may start off with a larger market sell off on that uncertainty.
Clinton is still ahead in the polls with two days to go and she is pulling out all the stops. The electoral map favors Clinton because there are more democrats than republicans. The heavily populated coastal states with a high number of electoral votes are liberal democrat while most of the flyover states are conservative republican.
The key point here is that Clinton is favored to win despite all her problems. If that turns out to be the case the market is expected to rally 3% to 5% very quickly.
There is always the possibility of a Trump upset and a temporary market dip but that would be the "Brexit dip" that should be bought. This is a headline event rather than a sudden change in the government. It would take many months or even years to get his changes passed into laws, and some would never be passed. The key point is that a Trump victory could be a sell the news event followed by a Brexit type rebound.
I am recommending a call position on the Russell 2000 ETF because the Russell is the most oversold. It is also cheaper for a speculative position.
I am going to recommend two entries. One for a positive move higher and one for a dip buy. It is entirely possible we could end up with both positions. If the dip entry is triggered first, cancel the rebound entry.
This is a SPECULATIVE position. Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.
With an IWM trade at $117.25
Buy Dec $119 call, currently $1.90, no initial stop loss.
With an IWM trade at $112.05
Buy Dec $115 call, estimated @ $2.25, no initial stop loss.
Support is $109-$110 and I want to enter the position before those levels just to make sure we get a dip entry. Thousands of traders are watching the same levels and will be looking to get long in at those same levels.
NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS
No New Bearish Plays