The small caps are leading the larger indexes lower and we could finally see a decent dip.
How we play that dip is the key. I am profiling a dip buy on the Russell 2000 ETF.
NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAYS
IWM - Russell 2000 ETF - ETF Profile
The iShares Russell 2000 ETF seeks to track the investment results of an index composed of small-capitalization U.S. equities.
The IWM has declined from more than $140 on Wednesday the 1st of March, to $135.90 as of Wednesday's close. The Russell has declined for five consecutive days. There is major support in the $133.50-$134.00 range. With the large cap indexes refusing to decline materially, we should see some buyers appear when that IWM support is reached. Secondary support is about $130.50. We will use a break of that level as evidence the trade is broken and I will place the stop loss slightly below $130.
The small caps rallied 21% after the election and after today's decline that has dropped to 15%. The small caps were the most bullish because the president's policies will benefit small businesses the most. This is why I do not believe the Russell will go into full meltdown mode.
The risk to this trade is that the tax overhaul gets pushed well into the future, possibly 2018. That could happen because of the war currently underway on the new healthcare proposal. If the proposal does not get a vote within the next 30-45 days, the wheels will come off the effort and the president's agenda dies a slow death. Democrats have vowed to slow walk it and stop it if possible.
The second risk is the expiration of the debt ceiling suspension on March 15th. This is not currently being discussed in the news headlines but once it arrives it could be another congressional disaster.
I considered buying puts on the SPY/IWM, etc because of these problems. However, premiums are already high and the large cap indexes are showing strong relative strength. I believe any dip over the next several days will be shallow and brief. If the risks above materialize it should be weeks from now and hopefully after an initial rebound has formed. That will give us an opportunity to exit if the market turns negative again.
Obviously, all of this is just speculation. Nobody can accurately pick market direction in advance. We try hard but the market has a mind of its own. This is a speculative recommendation. Do not enter the position if you cannot afford to lose all or part of your premium.
With an IWM trade at $133.75
Buy May $136 calls, estimated to be $3, initial stop loss $129.50
NEW DIRECTIONAL PUT PLAYS
No New Bearish Plays