CALL Play Updates

Arch Cap Group - ACGL - close: 69.92 change: -0.28 stop: 66.90

The rally looks tired and stocks are starting to roll over under resistance. ACGL could roll over and retest technical support at its rising 50-dma. I'd look for a bounce from the 50-dma before launching new positions. There is potential resistance near $71.00. Our target is the $74.00 level and our time frame is several weeks.

Picked on  November 07 at $ 68.81
Change since picked:       + 1.11
Earnings Date            10/26/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        444 thousand 
Listed on  November 07, 2009         

Canadian Nat. Res. - CNQ - close: 65.70 change: -1.94 stop: $63.95 *new*

Right on cue CNQ delivered a pull back to $66.00 and filled the gap. If shares bounce from here we can buy calls on the move. I am raising our stop loss to $63.95. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops closer to $65.00. Our upside target is $74.00.

Picked on  November 09 at $ 67.74 *gap open higher entry
                          /original trigger was $66.05
Change since picked:       - 2.04
Earnings Date            03/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.8 million  
Listed on  November 07, 2009         

Chevron Corp. - CVX - close: 77.42 change: -1.09 stop: 76.75

Our bullish play in CVX may be in trouble. The stock hit new relative highs yesterday but the stock may have gotten ahead of itself and any rally in oil. Today oil reversed lower and now CVX is poised to reverse with it. Oil is testing support and another down day like today will produce a bearish breakdown. Odds are if there is any follow through lower tomorrow CVX will hit our stop loss at $76.75.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Our first target is $84.00.

Picked on  November 11 at $ 78.87 /gap higher entry point
Change since picked:       - 1.45
Earnings Date            01/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =       10.6 million  
Listed on  November 10, 2009         

Deere & Co - DE - close: 47.41 change: -0.60 stop: 46.85

The recent strength in DE is starting to fade with the major indices. There is no change from my Monday night comments. We're waiting for a bullish breakout over major resistance at $50.00. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy calls at $50.25. If triggered our first target is $54.90. Our second target is $59.00. Keep in mind that we'll plan to exit ahead of DE's earnings report later in the month.

Picked on  November xx at $ xx.xx <-- TRIGGER @ 50.25
Change since picked:       + 0.00
Earnings Date            11/25/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        6.2 million  
Listed on  November 09, 2009         

Essex Property - ESS - close: 81.42 change: -0.52 stop: 77.75 *new*

Profit taking in ESS was relatively light. Shares should have some minor support near $80.00 and again near $78.00. I am raising our stop loss to $77.75. Given the market's weakness I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. Our first target is $86.00. Our second target is $92.50.

Picked on  November 10 at $ 80.65
Change since picked:       + 0.77
Earnings Date            02/03/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        500 thousand 
Listed on  November 09, 2009         

Gold ETF - GLD - close: 108.21 change: -1.39 stop: 99.75

A bounce in the U.S. dollar sparked some profit taking in gold. The GLD lost 1.2%, which was enough to erase yesterday's gains.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. GLD has already hit our first target. Our second, longer-term target is still $119.00 but it could take several weeks to get there. Expect a bumpy ride higher.

Picked on   October 06 at $102.28
Change since picked:       + 5.93
                               /1st target hit @ 109.50 (+7.0%)
Earnings Date            00/00/00
Average Daily Volume =       14.2 million  
Listed on   October 06, 2009         

Parker Hannifin - PH - close: 55.29 change: -0.82 stop: 52.90

PH shed 1.4% and is nearing potential round-number support at $55.00. If the $55 level fails then look for technical support at the 50-dma. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our first target is $58.50. We will cautiously set a second target at $62.00 but the $60.00 level could prove to be strong resistance. I would use small positions.

Picked on  November 03 at $ 55.25
Change since picked:       + 0.04
Earnings Date            01/20/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        1.6 million  
Listed on  November 03, 2009         

UltraShort Treasury ETF - TBT - close: 47.65 change: +0.35 stop: 44.90

The TBT rallied toward resistance at its 200-dma again. The rally failed but shares still closed with a gain.

Our first target is $54.50. Our second target is $58.50. Our time frame is several weeks (possibly year end).

Picked on   October 26 at $ 47.89 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:       - 0.24

2nd entry on   October 30 at $ 45.50 (1/2 position)
Change since picked:          + 2.25

Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =        6.0 million  
Listed on   October 26, 2009         

PUT Play Updates

BIOGEN IDEC - BIIB - close: 46.50 change: +0.07 stop: 47.05

BIIB's relative strength today is worrisome if you're bearish on the stock. More conservative traders will want to exit early now.

I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. BIIB has already hit our first target. Our second and final target to exit is $40.50.

Picked on   October 03 at $ 48.89
Change since picked:       - 2.39
                               /1st target hit @ 44.50 (-8.9%)
Earnings Date            10/20/09 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        2.6 million  
Listed on   October 03, 2009         

Bank of Montreal - BMO - close: 48.59 change: -0.58 stop: 50.15

It looks like the rebound is reversing under resistance at $50.00. This could be a new bearish entry point but readers will probably want to wait for a new drop under $48.00 to launch positions. Our first target is $42.75. Our second target is $40.50.

Picked on   October 27 at $ 47.37
Change since picked:       + 1.22
Earnings Date            11/24/09 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume =        539 thousand 
Listed on   October 27, 2009         

Russell 2000 iShares - IWM - close: 58.17 change: -1.09 stop: 60.55 *new*

So far so good. The rally in small caps stalled and has now reversed under resistance. I'm lowering our stop loss to $60.55. This looks like a new entry point if you were waiting on the failed rally pattern to show up.

Our first target is $55.50. Our second target is $52.00 or the 200-dma, whichever the IWM hits first.

Picked on  November 09 at $ 59.00
Change since picked:       - 0.83
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =       54.5 million  
Listed on  November 02, 2009         

Strangle & Spread Play Updates

(What is a strangle? It's when a trader buys an out-of-the-money (OTM) call and an OTM put on the same stock. The strategy is neutral. You do not care what direction the stock moves as long as the move is big enough to make your investment profitable.)

Ultra(Long)-S&P500 - SSO - close: 36.33 change: -0.75 stop: n/a

It looks like the rally in stocks is rolling over. We got a great entry point this morning near $37.00. I was suggesting positions in the $37.50-36.50 zone.

The options suggested for this strangle were the December $40 calls (SUC-LN) and the December $34 puts (SOJ-XH). Our estimated cost was $1.70. We want to sell if either option hits $3.00 or higher.

Picked on  November 11 at $ 37.08
Change since picked:       - 0.75
Earnings Date            --/--/--
Average Daily Volume =         32 million  
Listed on  November 11, 2009