Conventional wisdom and actual market history predicts a post inauguration decline. Conventional wisdom must be high on Trumponomics because there are no material signs of weakness as you would expect before a sell the news event. With nearly every analyst predicting a 3% to 5% decline over the next several weeks you would think investors would be taking cash off the table. Apparently, the lure of lower taxes, decreased regulation, massive stimulus and an actual businessman in the Oval Office has produced an artificial high and investors have their heads in the clouds.
I have always expected any late January dip to be bought but now I am starting to have doubts there will even be a dip. I changed the play on the SPY calls to move the strikes to March and to add a breakout entry point just in case history does not repeat. I know as soon as I revert to a bullish bias that will be the kiss of death for the markets.
Post inauguration declines in the first 30 days in office.
Stop Loss Updates
Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow.
We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline.
Check the graphic below for any profit stops in green.
We need to always be prepared for a profit exit at resistance.
Current Position Changes
SPY - S&P-500 ETF
Long call recommendation remains unopened until $223.25 or $227.50.
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BULLISH Play Updates
SPY - S&P-500 ETF - ETF Profile
Time for a change in the play. The market refuses to decline despite multiple opportunities. I am going to leave the dip buy in place but I am changing it to a March $227 call. I am also adding a breakout trigger in case the market defies conventional wisdom and explodes higher. These are going to be different call strikes. This will be an EITHER/OR play. We will keep whichever position is triggered first and cancel the other recommendation.
Original Trade Description: Jan 12th
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index.
The SPY dipped to $225 intraday before the dip buyers rushed into the market. Initial support is $223 and I believe we have a chance to test that level before the inauguration. There are only four trading days left. If the bank earnings disappoint on Friday we could see a decline in low volume. With the three-day weekend ahead we could see traders move to the sidelines to avoid weekend event risk while the U.S. markets are closed.
We could also see a pre inauguration decline as traders worry about event risk surrounding the event.
Whatever the reason we could see the ETF test that level over the next four days. Assuming there is no disaster surrounding the inauguration, we could see a real rally begin afterwards.
This is a short term position using February options just in case any potential dip turns into a crash. The estimated option premium should be less than $2.
With a SPY trade at $223.25
Buy MAR $227 call, estimated to be $3.00 or less, no initial stop loss.
With a SPY trade at $227.50
Buy MAR $231 call, estimated to be $3.00 or less, no initial stop loss.
BEARISH Play Updates (Alpha by Symbol)
DIA Dow ETF - ETF Profile
Another intraday dip bought, twice. The morning dip was bought and then an afternoon dip was bought. Still not enough conviction to lift it back into the green. The five-week range is still intact but a sell the news breakdown could be imminent.
Original Trade Description: December 7th
The SPDR Dow JonesÂ® Industrial Average ETF Trust seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, correspond generally to the price and yield performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Remember Dow 10,000? Traders talked about it for weeks. When it was finally hit, they were passing out Dow 10,000 hats on the floor of the NYSE for a week. That was December 11th 2003. It was a big milestone for the market.
Now 13 years later, we are about to double that with Dow 20,000. Given the place on the calendar, the massive post election rally and the potential for normal profit taking in January, the Dow 20,000 touch could be a massive sell on the news event.
However, we are only 386 points way and it could happen as soon as next week. The Fed rate announcement on Wednesday could either cripple that potential or accelerate it if the Fed maintains a dovish posture on future rate hikes. I believe we will hit Dow 20K before the end of December. When that happens I want to be short the DIA ETF and plan on holding it through January.
I am choosing the Dow because it is the most overbought and could produce the biggest percentage move. Just look at Goldman's chart and the profit that needs to be removed there.
Because there will be plenty of other traders thinking along the same lines I want to enter the put position at 19,900 or $199 on the DIA ETF. I know I am jumping in front of a speeding train to enter a short position on a runaway market but the potential is very high for a good trade.
12/12 - 1/2 position: Long Feb $195 put @ $3.40, no initial stop loss.
12/13 - 1/2 position: Long Feb $195 put @ $3.15, no initial stop loss.
FINL - Finish Line - Company Profile
No specific news. Shares closed flat for the day despite gains on the Nasdaq.
Original Trade Description: January 11th.
The Finish Line, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialty retailer of athletic shoes, apparel, and accessories in the United States. It operates in two divisions, the Finish Line and JackRabbit. The company's Finish Line division engages in the in-store and online retail of athletic shoes for Macy's Retail Holdings, Inc.; Macy's Puerto Rico, Inc.; and Macys.com, Inc., as well as online at macys.com. This division offers men's, women's, and kids' athletic shoes, as well as an assortment of accessories of Nike, Skechers, Converse, Puma, New Balance, Adidas, and other brands. As of April 2, 2016, the company operated Finish Line shops in 392 Macy's department stores in 37 states in the United States, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico. Its JackRabbit division retails lifestyle products, such as running shoes, apparel, and accessories of Brooks, Asics, Nike, Saucony, New Balance, and other brands. It also operates the e-commerce sites jackrabbit.com and boulderrunningcompany.com. The company operated 72 JackRabbit stores in 17 states in the United States and the District of Columbia.
Company description from FinViz.com.
In late December Finish Line reported a loss of 24 cents compared to estimates for a loss of 18 cents. Revenue was $371.7 million, down -2.7% from the year ago period. Analysts were expecting $412.4 million. They guided for Q4 earnings of 68-73 cents compared to analyst expectations for 96 cents. Shares fell from $23 to $19 on the news and have continued to decline.
Finish Line does not report earnings again until March 22nd. That means every other retailer will post their disappointing quarters and with each earnings miss the weight should increase on FINL shares.
Finish Line operates mall stores and stores inside Macy's stores. Macy's already reported declining traffic and missed on same store sales. This should also impact FINL since lower Macy's traffic means lower traffic in the shoe section.
Shares are currently $17.50 and could easily break below the June lows before the next earnings reports. I am reaching out to May so there will be some earnings expectation in the premium when we exit before the earnings. We can buy time but we do not have to use it.
Long May $17 put @ $1.55, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
LB - L Brands - ETF Profile
No specific news. Shares gained 1% but remain under resistance at $62.25. The market refuses to die and that has bargain hunters shopping for previously beaten down stocks.
Original Trade Description: January 14th
L Brands, Inc. operates as a specialty retailer of women's intimate and other apparel, beauty and personal care products, and accessories. The company operates in three segments: Victoria's Secret, Bath & Body Works, and Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works International. Its products include loungewear, bras, panties, swimwear, athletic attire, fragrances, shower gels and lotions, aromatherapy, soaps and sanitizers, home fragrances, handbags, jewelry, and personal care accessories. The company offers its products under the Victoria's Secret, Pink, Bath & Body Works, La Senza, Henri Bendel, C.O. Bigelow, White Barn Candle Company, and other brand names. L Brands, Inc. sells its merchandise through company-owned specialty retail stores in the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom, which are primarily mall-based; through its Websites; and through franchises, licenses, and wholesale partners. As of January 31, 2016, the company operated 2,721 retail stores in the United States; 270 retail stores in Canada; and 14 retail stores in the United Kingdom. It also operated 221 La Senza stores in 29 countries; 125 Bath & Body Works stores in 30 countries; 19 Victoria's Secret stores in 7 Middle Eastern countries; and 373 Victoria's Secret Beauty and Accessories stores, and various small-format locations in approximately 75 countries. Company description from FinViz.com.
The holidays were not good for L Brands. The warned on January 5th that net sales rose 1% for the five week shopping period BUT same store sales fell -1% and sales for Victoria's Secret fell -4%. That was a major blow because the holiday shopping season is normally the best five weeks of the year for the lingerie business. They even tried to combat the falling sales by advertising some of their bras at only $10 and even the deep discount did not work.
L Brands is also suffering because they maintain a mall store format. With the malls dying in favor of online shopping, they are losing sales. More than 80% of L Brands sales come from mall traffic and that traffic is rapidly declining. Hermand-Waiche believes that online sales will be over 30% of the market in 2017 and that means Victoria's Secret is becoming obsolete to 30% of the market.
The company warned on the 5th that earnings would be at the low end of prior guidance or $1.85. Shares fell -6% on the earnings warning. With Macy's and Kohl's warning in the same week it was a bloodbath for retailers in the market. Of 11 stores reporting same store sales 8 saw sales decline.
Earnings are February 15th.
Shares are hugging the $60 level but ticking slightly lower every day. If we do get a market meltdown, they could be a target of sellers wanting to exit a nonperforming stock.
Long Feb $60 put @ $1.85, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
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