Volatility has declined but it is still with us and should remain for another 3-4 weeks.
It normally takes 4-5 weeks after a market event for volatility to return to normal. Sometimes it takes longer. That does not mean the market cannot continue higher. The volatility this weekend has already been extreme. On Sunday night, the S&P futures rose +13 and on Monday night, they have been down -11. The Chinese markets are closed and that could be adding some uncertainty.
The VIX has held at about 19.50 for three days even while the market was moving higher. That suggests investors were still worried about the future and were buying puts for protection. The VIX is calculated off put prices on the S&P 30 days out.
The S&P rebounded sharply for the week to close over the 50-day average on both Thursday and Friday. Earlier in the week, the index used the 100-day average as support. If we were to see another decline the 2,675 level should be initial support followed by the 100-day at 2,650.
The Dow gained 1,025 points for the week and also closed over the 50-day average for the last two days. A retracement here should find support at 25,000 and then 24,700, which was support in December. There are two Dow components, HD and WMT that will report earnings before the open on Tuesday. These should influence market direction at the open.
The Nasdaq was the market leader last week with a 365 point gain even after the 17 point decline on Friday. The Nasdaq blew through the 50-day at 7,100 to close well over the minor uptrend resistance at 7,200. The Nasdaq is only about 250 points away from its prior high. If we just had a decent week we could see those highs tested.
Facebook was the laggard last week with declines early but a big rebound midweek only to decline again on Thr/Fri.
The Russell 2000 had a good week but came to a dead stop at prior resistance at 1,550. The index has rebounded 7% from its intraday low on Feb 9th, which is amazing. If the small caps could maintain their gains, they could lead the broader market higher.
The earnings cycle is winding down and there will only be about 50 S&P components left to report after this week. Those will be spread out over the next three weeks so a very light calendar. This is the last major week.
HD and WMT at the open on Tuesday and then the Hewlett Packard twins on Thursday.
The economic calendar is also very light. The two reports in green are not market movers unless they miss estimates by a mile. The big threat is the Powell testimony the following Wednesday. That is Powell's first public appearance since he became Fed chairman. He could rock the boat but I doubt he will do it on purpose. There will be stress in his first testimony to the House committee and that could produce some verbal errors.
The markets are due for another rest. The Dow and S&P have been up for six consecutive days. We need a pause to take the overbought pressures out of the markets again. The option premiums are rocketing higher again for the long dated options on popular stocks. We need some uncertainty and a triple digit decline on the Dow to force a reset. Then we should be good to go to retest the highs. That could still take a couple more weeks but the strong 16% earnings for Q4 and the forecast for 18% earnings growth in Q1 should be enough to keep the markets moving higher.
Any material decline will be a buying opportunity.
Enter passively, exit aggressively!
Send Jim an email
NEW DIRECTIONAL CALL PLAY
INGR - Ingredion Inc - Company Profile
INGR was hammered in early February when they missed earnings by a penny just as the market began to crash.
Original Trade Description: February 12th.
Ingredion Incorporated, together with its subsidiaries, produces and sells starches and sweeteners for various industries. The company operates through four segments: North America, South America, Asia Pacific and Europe, and Middle East and Africa. It offers sweetener products comprising glucose syrups, high maltose syrups, high fructose corn syrups, caramel colors, dextrose, polyols, maltodextrins and glucose, and syrup solids, as well as food-grade and industrial starches, and biomaterials. The company also provides animal feed products; edible corn oil; refined corn oil to packers of cooking oil and to producers of margarine, salad dressings, shortening, mayonnaise, and other foods; and corn gluten feed used as protein feed for chickens, pet food, and aquaculture. Its products are derived primarily from processing corn and other starch-based materials, such as tapioca, potato, and rice. The company serves food, beverage, paper and corrugating products, brewing, pharmaceutical, textile, and personal care industries, as well as animal feed and corn oil markets. The company was formerly known as Corn Products International, Inc. and changed its name to Ingredion Incorporated in June 2012. Ingredion Incorporated was founded in 1906 and is headquartered in Westchester, Illinois. Company description from FinViz.com
Ingredion posted record Q4 earnings of $1.73 that missed estimates by a penny. This was just at the start of the market correction and the shares were hammered in a down market. Revenue was $1.44 billion. For the year they guided for earnings of $8.10-$8.50, up from $7.06 in 2017. They ended the year with $2.4 billion in cash and short term investments.
They recently acquired the Sun Flour rice business, TIC Gums and Shandong Huanong Specialty Corn, which positioned them for continued growth in 2018. Their high margin business portfolio saw a 28% increase in sales in 2017. While North America, Asia Pacific and EMEA all saw record revenues, South America was a drag as they completed a competitive restructuring in that region.
For Q4 their reported and adjusted tax rates were 44.9% and 32.5% respectively. They took charges of $23 and $31 million related to the tax reform but will benefit greatly from the reduced taxes in 2018.
Expected earnings May 3rd.
The decline knocked them down to long-term support at $127. I am recommending a shorter term option to capture a potential rebound when the market makes a new leg higher. Ingredion did not rebound that much last week so they could be seen as a value play in the weeks ahead. Investors will be shying away from stocks with big gains and looking for stocks that were missed in the confusion.
Buy April $135 call, currently $2.70, initial stop loss $125.75.
Check the graphic below for any new stop losses in bright yellow. We need to always be prepared for an unexpected decline. Any items shaded in blue were previously closed.
Current Position Changes
HD - Home Depot
The long call position was entered on Tuesday.
NTGR - Netgear
The long call position was entered on Tuesday.
VXX - VIX Futures ETF
The short stock position was entered on Tuesday.
Original Play Recommendations (Alpha by Symbol)
ABBV - AbbVie - Company Profile
AbbVie raised its dividend by 35% to 96 cents and announced a $10 billion stock buyback program. This lifted the stock from Monday's low of $110.65 to $118.58 at Friday's close.
Original Trade Description: February 6th.
AbbVie Inc. discovers, develops, manufactures, and sells pharmaceutical products worldwide. The company offers HUMIRA, a biologic therapy administered as a subcutaneous injection to treat autoimmune diseases; IMBRUVICA, an oral therapy for the treatment of patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia; and VIEKIRA PAK, an interferon-free therapy, with or without ribavirin, for the treatment of adults with genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C. It also provides Kaletra, an anti- human immunodeficiency virus(HIV)-1 medicine used with other anti-HIV-1 medications as a treatment that maintains viral suppression in HIV-1 patients; Norvir, a protease inhibitor indicated in combination with other antiretroviral agents to treat HIV-1; and Synagis to prevent RSV infection at-risk infants. In addition, the company offers AndroGel, a testosterone replacement therapy for males diagnosed with symptomatic low testosterone; Creon, a pancreatic enzyme therapy for exocrine pancreatic insufficiency; Synthroid to treat hypothyroidism; and Lupron, a product for the palliative treatment of prostate cancer, endometriosis, and central precocious puberty, as well as for the treatment of patients with anemia. Further, it provides Duopa and Duodopa, a levodopa-carbidopa intestinal gel to treat Parkinson's disease; Sevoflurane, an anesthesia product for human use; and ZINBRYTA, a subcutaneous treatment for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis. The company sells its products to wholesalers, distributors, government agencies, health care facilities, specialty pharmacies, and independent retailers from its distribution centers and public warehouses. AbbVie Inc. has collaboration agreements with C2N Diagnostics; Calico Life Sciences LLC; Infinity Pharmaceuticals, Inc.; M2Gen; and Principia Biopharma Inc. Company description from FinViz.com.
Next expected earnings April 27th.
A lot of companies have 1-2 real drugs in the pipeline that may be approved. Several companies have one drug that could be a blockbuster and reach $1 billion in sales annually. AbbVie has multiple blockbusters in the pipeline and dozens of other drugs already in the market.
Analysts claim AbbVie's pipeline is the strongest in the industry. The post earnings market drop is a buying opportunity. The company's other drugs are going to be cash cows. Imbruvica generated $1.8 billion in sales in 2016 and could reach $7 billion annually over the next couple of years. Venclexta was approved in 2016 for leukemia and sales could peak at $3.5 billion a year. An experimental cancer drug called Rova-T could hit $5 billion a year when approved. A psoriasis drug called risankizumab could produce $4 billion a year and arthritis drug upadacitinib could peak at $3.5 billion.
AbbVie was a spinoff from Abbott Laboratories in 2012 and they are doing great.
ABBV reported Q4 earnings of $1.48 that beat estimates for $1.45. Revenue of $7.74 billion beat estimates for $7.51 billion. The company guided for 2018 adjusted earnings of $7.33-$7.43, up from $6.37-$6.57 and analysts were expecting $6.66.
The blowout guidance spiked the shares to $125 from $108. We had closed our prior ABBV position the day before the earnings. With the market crash, shares have now declined to $109 and giving us a chance to reenter the position.
Long May $115 call @ $3.70, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
HD - Home Depot - Company Profile
HD reports earnings before the open on Tuesday. I feel strongly about HD's potential and the correction did not change their earnings picture. If they post a big beat, the stock could return to the pre correction levels. There is also the potential for them to significantly raise the dividend and increase their stock buybacks.
Original Trade Description: February 12th.
The Home Depot, Inc. operates as a home improvement retailer. It operates The Home Depot stores that sell various building materials, home improvement products, and lawn and garden products, as well as provide installation, home maintenance, and professional service programs to do-it-yourself, do-it-for-me (DIFM), and professional customers. The company offers installation programs that include flooring, cabinets, countertops, water heaters, and sheds; and professional installation in various categories sold through its in-home sales programs, such as roofing, siding, windows, cabinet refacing, furnaces, and central air systems, as well as acts as a contractor to provide installation services to its DIFM customers through third-party installers. It primarily serves homeowners; and professional renovators/remodelers, general contractors, handymen, property managers, building service contractors, and specialty tradesmen, such as installers. The company also sells its products through online. It operates through approximately 2,278 stores, including 1,977 in the United States, including the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico, and the territories of the U.S. Virgin Islands and Guam; 182 in Canada; and 119 in Mexico.
The company reported Q3 earnings of $1.84 that rose 15% and beat estimates for $1.81. Revenue rose 8.1% to $25.026 billion, up from $23.154 billion. This beat estimates for $24.523 billion. Same store sales rose 7.9%. HD said the hurricanes added about $282 million in sales but also cost them about $51 million in store damages and inventory shifting costs. The company guided for Q4 revenue growth of 6.3% and same store sales of 6.5%. Those numbers were up from 5.3% and 5.6% in prior guidance. Earnings are expected to grow 14% to $7.36 for the full year, up from prior guidance of $7.29. Full year 2017 sales are expected to be $100.6 billion. They had $8 billion unspent on a $15 billion share repurchase program.
In early December, Home Depot (HD) announced a new $15 billion buyback and raised guidance for annual sales between $114.6-$119.8 billion by the end of 2020. The new repurchase program replaced the existing $15 billion program. The company expects to buy back $8 billion in shares total in 2017 with $2.1 billion in Q4. Since 2002, Home Depot has bought back 1.3 billion shares worth $73 billion.
Home Depot had an effective tax rate of 37% in Q3. Under the new tax plan that would drop to about 23%. Analysts believe this could boost HD's 2018 earnings by as much as 25%. That means their earnings could rise as much as $1.81. They currently have a PE of 25 and that would equate to about a $45 rise in the stock price. However, I would expect that PE to decline somewhat in the conversion.
Shares are already up after their November earnings guidance but I believe they can still go higher. Options are not cheap. In order to get the benefit of the rise in expectations I would like to reach out to May but the options are too expensive but not enough to make a spread worthwhile. I am recommending a March position and hopefully analyst projections will do the work for us.
Earnings are Feb 20th and I would plan to hold over that report because they will give tax guidance at that time.
HD is reportedly talking to XPO Logistics about an acquisition of the $9 billion company. HD uses them to deliver large items like refrigerators and other appliances. There could be a battle with Amazon since that large item shipping is a problem for Amazon.
Option premiums are high because of the correction and rebound. Shares were trading at $210 two weeks ago and now they are trading at $185. With earnings next week, they could be back at $200 or higher very quickly.
Long April $190 call @ $5.30, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
NTGR - Netgear - Company Profile
Netgear added an outdoor satellite extender to the popular Orbi home wireless routers. The device is waterproof and adds 2,500 sqft hotspot of high speed WiFi coverage. Now all your friends can remain glued to their phones at the next barbecue.
Shares rebounded all week until the Nasdaq faded slightly on Friday.
Original Trade Description: January 8th
NETGEAR, Inc. designs, develops, and markets innovative networking solutions and smart connected products for consumers, businesses, and service providers. The company operates in three segments: Retail, Commercial, and Service Provider. The Retail segment offers home WiFi networking solutions and smart connected products. The Commercial segment provides business networking, storage, and security solutions. The Service Provider segment offers made-to-order home networking hardware and software solutions, including 4G LTE hotspots sold to service providers for sale to their subscribers. The company also offers commercial business networking products, such as Ethernet switches, wireless controllers and access points, Internet security appliances, and unified storage products; broadband access products, including broadband modems, WiFi gateways, and WiFi hotspots; and smart home/Internet-of-Things connectivity and products comprising WiFi routers and home WiFi system, WiFi range extenders, powerline adapters and bridges, remote video security systems, and WiFi network adapters. It markets and sells its products through traditional retailers, online retailers, wholesale distributors, direct market resellers, value-added resellers, and broadband service providers worldwide. Company description from FinViz.com
Expected earnings May 8th.
Several weeks ago Amazon bought Blink. You may not have heard about Blink but they launched in 2016 with an inexpensive wireless camera and video doorbell. This is the hot new sector for video surveillance. You have probably heard about Ring video doorbells, which is a different company.
The point to this commentary is that Netgear is making the very popular Arlo security camera and sales are booming. Netgear also has 48% of the market for home routers.
With Amazon likely to go big in this category after the acquisition of Blink, that means Netgear is suddenly a target. Global Equities said Facebook, Google or even Apple could acquire Netgear because that gives them a top position in the space. Google would be the prime candidate because they could link the Arlo system to Google Home. It would also allow Google access to trillions of terabytes of data related to the home routers and networking equipment. Monitoring those devices would be like keeping their finger on the pulse of technology. They would know how many people are watching Netflix, how much data was being consumed by what subset of users, etc. This could be very important in their planning for the future.
Apple is not likely to make a play for Netgear because they do not do big acquisitions and Netgear has too many "common" products for Apple to manage. They would be more likely to buy Tesla or Netflix if they were going to make a big splash.
Arlo is an entirely new category for Netgear and a category that is exploding in sales. In their Q4 earnings they said the Arlo cameras posted record sales that exceeded their already optimistic expectations.
Since I wrote that in the initial play description Netgear has announced a spinoff of the Arlo security cameras. They will spin less than 20% and retain the rest. The cameras are so popular the IPO should be a big success and a good way for Netgear to monetize their investment. This will provide them a significant amount of capital to expand on their other product lines.
In reality, nobody has to buy Netgear for them to succeed. Netgear demonstrated new products at the CES show and the crowd loved them. Apparently, so did investors. They announced the Nighthawk Pro Gaming system of network gear that will cut lag time and enhance multiplayer game play for serious gamers. They also demonstrated the Orbi Wi-Fi system, which has also been very successful. With the rapid ramp of the Arlo video cameras for security, they have completed an entire cloud support system that allows storage of video, multiviewer capability for home monitoring, etc.
They reported Q4 earnings of 71 cents on revenue of $397.1 million,, up 7.9%. They guided for the current quarter for revenue of $330-$345 million. Analysts were expecting $348.2 million. However, Netgear has beaten estimates for six consecutive quarters so they may have been guiding lower so they can beat again.
The combination of the light guidance and the market declined knocked $15 off the stock in February. Shares appear to have bottomed at $56 and have risen for the past two days. This is proving a buying opportunity on a previously strong stock.
Long June $65 call @ $3.26, see portfolio graphic for stop loss.
VXX - Volatility Index Futures - ETF Description
Volatility has declined significantly but it is not over. It normally takes 4-5 weeks for volatility to return to normal after a high volatility event.
The recent volatility 110% spike in the VXX is a once in a decade event. Without a nuke going off somewhere in the US, the odds are very remote of seeing the ETF over $50 again this year.
Original Trade Description: September 18th.
The VXX is a short-term volatility ETF based on the VIX futures. As a futures product it has the rollover curse. Every time they roll to a new futures contract, they have to pay a premium and that lowers the price of the ETF. It is a flawed product with a perpetual decline built in from the monthly roll over in the futures contracts.
As evidence of this flaw, they have now done five 1:4 reverse stock splits. The last five reverse splits occurred at $13.11 (11/2010), $8.77 (10/2012), $12.84 (11/2013), $9.52 (8/8/16), $12.77 (8/22/17). The prospectus says it can reverse split anytime it trades under $25 for a prolonged period and the splits will always be 1:4.
We know from experience that the VXX always declines.
Unfortunately, put options are expensive with a volatility instrument at this price level. The only recommendation is to short the ETF and forget it. If we do get a new rally into the Q1 earnings cycle we could see a sharp decline in the VXX over the next 2-3 months. This will be a long-term position. This is not a 2-3 week play. I can guarantee you, if history holds, we can play this until it splits 1:4 again at $10. Once we are in the position and profitable I will put a trailing stop loss on it. We will take profits and then look for a bounce to get back in.
The VXX is hard to short. There are 34.2 million shares outstanding and ShortSqueeze.com says 44.5 million are short. The shares are out there and being traded because the volume on Monday was 46.5 million. More than 221 million traded on Feb 5th. This ETF is a favorite vehicle for the computer traders so the volume is always high. You have to tell your broker you really want to short it and make them find the shares. Sometimes it takes days or even a week before your broker will find you the shares. Trust me, be persistent and it will be worth the effort.
Previously: On Feb-5th a reader emailed me saying a friend was short 1,000 shares. When the VXX spiked $21 in afterhours, Ameritrade closed that position for a $35,000 loss. They did not have a protective stop loss.
We are not using a profit stop in this position because it could be hard to re-short the shares after a volatility event. That is just trade management for a profitable position.
In ANY SHORT POSITION, you should have a catastrophe stop loss to avoid the position turning into a major loss. Had this person had a stop loss at their entry point, they would have been closed for a breakeven and they would be sleeping a lot better today.
Readers should always assume the potential for the worst possible outcome of a short position. Trade smart!
Short VXX shares @ $49.16, no initial stop loss.
Prices Quoted in Newsletter
At Option Investor, we have a long-standing policy prohibiting the editors and staff from actually trading the individual recommendations in order to conform to SEC rules concerning trades.
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