I may be a little early but history suggests we could see a month end rebound on quarter end window dressing.

The broader markets have been down in early June for the last five years but the last two weeks have resulted in some decent quarter end window dressing. That rebound normally fails in early July but we will deal with that scenario at a later date.

I have not picked any new plays over the last two weeks because of the existing market decline. The Dow and S&P had a positive week, if you can claim a half point gain on the S&P as positive. The problem facing us next week is the FOMC meeting and Bernanke press conference on Wednesday. The Fed will update its economic outlook on Wednesday and they are expected to lower their numbers. Bernanke will be quizzed on this at the press conference and as cheerleader in chief for the economy I am sure he will try to put a positive spin on the update.

I am undecided on whether the market will rise or fall ahead of the FOMC but I think once that is behind us we should see the quarter end rebound begin. I considered adding some plays today but the futures opened down -4 points and oil prices are still falling. The Eurozone battle over Greece will continue.

The Monday meeting of 17 finance ministers ended without a resolution and no plan to give Greece the next installment of funds agreed to in the original bailout. The EU chair, Jean-Claude Juncker, said he has scheduled a new meeting of the 17 nations in early July to again discuss the problem. Greece claims July 11th is the drop dead date for funding or they will be forced to default on existing loans.

An increasing number of street protests in Greece suggest Papandreou's government may not survive this struggle. There is a vote of confidence scheduled for this week and it is not expected to go well.

I am planning on reviewing the market landscape on Wednesday and hopefully we can start preparing for the month end rally by sticking our toe in the water with a couple plays.

Jim Brown

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